Energy crisis intensifies, and coal ETFs have risen again

On September 5th, the A -share shock rose, and the amount could not be seen significantly. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed up 0.42%at 3199.91 points, the GEM index rose 0.2%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dropped 0.20%. The offshore RMB fell against the US dollar at the 6.95 mark, and continued to set a new low since 2020. The trading of funds in the north -north -north -north -north -north -north -northern -fold of funds has fallen significantly, and 7.615 billion yuan is sold throughout the day.

Source: Wind

The current A -share valuation and risk premium are close to the level at the end of April. The upward space may be very large, while the downlink space may be limited. However, from the perspective of winning rate, short -term public health incidents, real estate and climate factors may continue to drag economic expectations. Before the confidence of a new round of economic restoration, it is expected that the market will still be dominated by shocks.

In the next August, data disclosure is expected to reach a consensus on the judgment of the short -term economic foundation. On the other hand, a new round of growth policy may be densely landed after relevant meetings. In terms of transaction emotional perspective, the decline in transaction volume and transition rate has been relatively sufficient in this round of adjustment. It can be considered to deploy the future in batches.

On September 5th, the coal sector led the market, and the coal ETF (515220) rose 4.88%. On the news, Russia's Natural Gas Industry shares announced that the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline was transformed due to equipment failure. The International Energy Agency pointed out that as the power department used more and more coal to replace natural gas, it is expected that European coal consumption this year will increase by 14%last year. Many European countries, including Germany, have begun to restart or extend coal power stations to reduce natural gas consumption as much as possible.

International Coal Price Index, Source: Huatai Securities

For domestic supply, there is still uncertainty for the increase in new capacity. The convening of important meetings will bring environmental protection and security supervision pressure, and production may be restricted by some restrictions. challenge.

In terms of demand, although the electricity use of the electricity use in September and October, active policies and non -electrical peak seasons such as cement chemical industry are still expected to stabilize demand. In addition, winter storage is expected to open in advance, and the off -season may be very short. In the process of dual carbon, new and old energy develops together. It is expected to see thermal power and coal in China that will still become a barrier to energy safety. The future coal supply gap may still allow the coal price to have an upward momentum (see the "coal callback two days before rebounding, can it last?").

On September 5th, the trend of the pharmaceutical sector was weak. In addition to the crackdown on the entire large consumer sector in public health incidents, on the evening of September 2nd, Fosun Pharmaceutical issued a sharp announcement on the announcement of the controlling shareholders' reduction of the shareholding plan. Affected by the multi -point domestic public health incident, the revenue and net profit growth of the second quarter of the pharmaceutical sector were lower than the first quarter. The performance was significant, and the market performance was relatively pessimistic.

The impact of the price reduction of collection and medical insurance is still in the process of digestion, but at the same time, the pharmaceutical industry has accelerated innovation and transformation, R & D investment continues to increase, and innovation pipelines are continuously enriched. From the middle and long term, the repeated and policy impact of local public health incidents and policies will not change the growth of the pharmaceutical industry. Innovation -driven+high -end manufacturing is still the main growth of growth.

It is reported that the relevant departments have approved the emergency authorization of "COVID-19 vaccine developed by Kangshino's inhalation gonad virus carrier".

The inhalation dosage form is developed through the respiratory mucosal immunization technology. The vaccine atomization of the vaccine is used to add a atomization inhalation to small particles. Entering the respiratory tract and lungs through the method of inhalation of the oral cavity, which can stimulate the mucosa immunohistan response. This is an additional protection that cannot be brought by muscle injection and provided in the respiratory mucosa tissue. Subsequent development of new vaccines, and new ways that can better induce mucosal immunity, become the focus of innovation of epidemic vaccine. You can continue to pay attention to investment opportunities for vaccine ETF (159643) There are industries with bottom and upper -time "?").

This time, the relevant departments' clear response to the "innovative medical device for the time being incorporated into the collection", to a certain extent alleviated the panic of the "medical device will be collected by medical devices", which is generally recognized in the market, and the policy support for innovation and development. Later, you can pay attention to the low layout opportunities of biomedical ETF (512290), medical ETF (159828), and innovative medicine CSI ETF (517110).

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