Global Financial connection ｜ The central bank has once again reducing foreign exchange deposit reserves. OPEC+has reduced production for the first time in more than a year.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shi Shi Shi Shi Shanghai report

The central bank has once again reduced the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio

The People's Bank of China decided on September 5 that starting from September 15, 2022, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions has been reduced by 2 percentage points to 6%. This is the second time that the People's Bank of China has lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions during the year. What kind of signal is released? How will it act on the RMB exchange rate performance? Let's listen to the interpretation of Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank.

It is conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate

Wen Bin: Since the beginning of this year, my country's economy has been operating in a reasonable range, the international revenue and expenditure conditions are good, the RMB exchange rate is stable, and the RMB exchange rate index has only decreased by about 0.4%from the beginning of the year. However, affected by the Fed's accelerated tightening of monetary policy, the US dollar index once broke through the 110 mark, which led to depreciation of the Passiveness of the RMB against the US dollar. Recently, the central bank announced that the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions means that the reserves of domestic financial institutions' reserve for foreign exchange deposits will be reduced, which will help increase the liquidity of the US dollar in the market and enhance the ability of foreign exchange funds to use financial institutions, which is conducive to RMB The stability of the exchange rate avoids irrational overruns. As the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is increasingly improved and the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has increased, the RMB against the US dollar will continue to maintain a two -way fluctuation at a reasonable and balanced level. For export -oriented enterprises, we must establish the concept of exchange rate risk neutrality, take the initiative to use derivatives, do a good job of management of exchange rate risk, and maintain normal production and operation.

OPEC+for the first time in more than a year to reduce the production of international oil prices to higher

OPEC+said on Monday that it will reduce production by 100,000 barrels per day in October, making the supply restore to the level of August. Affected by this news, Brent crude oil futures closed up 2.92%on Monday, and WTI rose 2.3%in November crude oil futures. For the reasons and effects of OPEC+production reduction, let's listen to the analysis of Du Bingqin, an analyst at Everbright Futures Energy Chemical Engineers.

This reduction is more of symbolic meaning

"Global Finance and Economics": OPEC+has been reduced for the first time in more than a year, which reflects what considerations of oil -producing countries? What is the role of production reduction in boosting oil prices?

Du Bingqin: OPEC+at the meeting yesterday agreed to reduce the production quota of 100,000 barrels per day in October, and declare that if necessary, it will be considered at any time to deal with the issue of market development. We believe that OPEC +'s move is mainly to cope with the continuous progress of the previous Iran nuclear agreement negotiations and the impact of the G7 on the upper limit of Russian crude oil prices, which shows its determination to regulate control and supplies in expected management and supply. Although the scale of 100,000 barrels per day is not large, it is equivalent to 0.1%of global demand, but it is more in symbolic significance, showing to the market that OPEC+has entered the price observation model from the increase in production (that is, the possibility of reducing production at any time) And hope to maintain oil prices above $ 100/barrel. Because the negotiations of the Iranian nuclear agreement are unreasonable, OPEC+has not moved too much for the time being. possible.

Recent oil prices may run stabilized

"Global Financial connection": How to get out of the international oil price market? What risks should I pay attention to?

Du Bingqin: From the perspective of the global oil market, the fundamentals have not changed much. The main driving factor of the recent weak fluctuation of international oil prices is that the Federal Reserve's expected expectations in September further heated up, and the market's economic recession has dragged down demand for demand for economic recession. The concerns deepen. The European Central Bank will also hold monetary policy conferences this Thursday. It is generally expected that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates at least 50 basis points or even 75 basis points at the meeting. In addition, the main disturbance of international oil prices is still the news of the Iranian nuclear agreement negotiation. From the data point of view, various institutions estimate Iran's crude oil reserves in the range of 60 million to 93 million barrels. Once the Iran nuclear agreement is finalized, it is expected that Iran will soon release its floating storage and potential output, which will bring pressure on the supply end of the global oil market. The negotiations are still deadlock, and the end of the further negotiations in September cannot be determined. At present, OPEC+reduction of 100,000 barrels/day temporarily supports market confidence. Oil prices may stabilize operations, but at the same time, it also needs to continue to pay attention to the pace of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States and when can Iran oil be released.

Turkey's August CPI increased by 80.21% year -on -year

According to data released by the Turkish Bureau of Statistics on the 5th, Turkey's August CPI rose 80.21%year -on -year, a record high in 24 years. This year, after seven consecutive months maintained the benchmark interest rate, the MAC announced in August that the interest rate cut to 100 basis points to 13%. Is Erdogan's "interest rate cutting and anti -inflation". Can such a strategy work? With the depreciation of the Turkish lira, how much is the risk of debt defaults in the country in the future? Let's connect with Yu Jia, an analyst at the Integrity International Business Department in the connection.

Turkey's "interest rate cutting anti -inflation" may cause economic stall throughout the year

Yu Jia: To study Turkey's macroeconomic policies and results, we must first have a certain understanding of the country's economic structure and development momentum. Turkey is a high -oriented external economy, which regards credit stimulation as an important means to drive the economy. It adopts a more relaxed monetary policy all year round. In the context of geopolitical fluctuations, the risk and emotional changes caused by the adjustment of monetary policy in this country have also repeatedly attracted external attention. Turkey's non -orthodox monetary policy position is based on the so -called new economic core idea of ​​the current President Erdogan. The core content of this set of ideas is to stimulate investment at a lower interest rate, and to achieve increased exports and reduction in imports at low levels, thereby bring Come to frequently grow account surplus and employment rates, and then stimulate economic performance. From September to December last year, the Turkish central bank opened extremely loose monetary policy (that is, the "interest rate reduction anti -inflation" described in our issue) under the background of the rapid rise of inflation. While driving economic growth, it also produced a lot of side effects, resulting in a significant increase in domestic inflation in the last few months of last year, accompanied by the weakening of the lira and the increase of US dollar, and the overall economy faces a certain risk of hard landing. In the context of 2022, the "interest rate cutting anti -inflation" strategy may lead to economic stalls throughout the year. Since the beginning of 2022, Turkey has continued its previous investment -driven growth strategy, but the EU's economic growth has slowed down in the background of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, and the strong upward trend of international energy and grain prices has also greatly pushed up the energy import bill, which has caused Turkey to Turkey at the beginning of the year Domestic inflation continued to rise on the basis of 36%at the end of last year, and recorded 80.21%at the end of August. The pressure of people's livelihood continued to accumulate, which also caused the Turkish economy to maintain a high -speed growth of 7.5%in the first half of the year, but the support rate of President Erdogan continued to decline.

Judging from the latest inflation situation, as the price of international commodities enters July, the trend of inflation acceleration has eased in August. It is expected that inflation will further rise in September to the stage high In the interval, the year -end inflation rate is expected to fall to less than 70%. Looking forward to the economic performance of the year, the advanced indicators in the third quarter have indicated that the momentum of economic activities has decreased, and domestic inflation has continued to quickly increase the confidence and purchasing power of the family. In the second half of the year, the economic performance of the 2022 is expected to slow to slow to about 4.5%. At the same time, problems such as net energy balance deficit will make the economic prospects uncertain.

The risk of sovereign debt has been raised but limited

Yu Jia: Overall, Turkey's external payment strength is weak. Turkey has maintained high dependence on energy imports. More than 65%of oil and 99%of natural gas consumption comes from imports, resulting in weak regular account structure. At the same time The exchange rate level will be easily affected by various risk events. At the same time, Turkey's foreign reserves are relatively inadequate all year round. In recent years, Licha has experienced many in -depth depreciations, but the intervention of the Turkish Central Bank has limited results. Since the beginning of 2022, the strong rise of international energy and grain prices driven by Russia and Ukraine's conflict has overwhelmed the impact of tourism revenue. It is expected that the account deficit in 2022 will climb to more than 5.0%. Funding demand, combined with the negative value of the foreign reserves after the deduction reserve requirements and the fall, the risk of debt defaults of various borrowings of Turkey has risen.

From a positive point of view, the Turkish government has a relatively low demand compared to the private sector. As of now, the financing plan has been completed by about half of the 2022. Judging from the debt situation faced in the second half of the year, the Turkish government's stocks have not paid US $ 2.5 billion in bonds in September and US $ 3.2 billion in interest and loan repaids that have expired in July to December. In the case of tightening financing conditions, it is expected that the corresponding debt repayment funds will be paid from about $ 11 billion of foreign exchange deposits held by the Turkey Central Bank. At present, the financing channels of the Turkish government and enterprise departments remain unblocked, and the probability of Turkish sovereign debt defaults to a limited probability of default. Increased, so it does not rule out the narrowing of external recycling in the next few months. This situation deserves close attention.

(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The opinions of the guests on this show only represent their own opinions.)

Planning: Yu Xiaona

Produced: Shi Shi

Editor -in -chief: Du Hongyu and Jia Zhao Yue Li Yinong

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