Why do Germany fry "get rid of dependence on China"

The German political circles have repeatedly made up "get rid of dependence on China's economy", but the high complementarity of Sino -German economic and trade relations has also continued to rebound. Wolf, Chairman of the German Metal and Electric Industry Employees, warned in an interview with German media on the 5th that the German industry could hardly change its dependence on China in the short term.

Experts interviewed by a reporter from the Global Times on the 6th believe that "highly relying on China in terms of economy" is a kind of political assumption. Sino -German complementary economic and trade relations and close industrial cooperation will not easily "decide" under political will.

China and Germany are important trading partners

The Institute of Economics at the University of Munich issued a survey report in April this year that 11%of German companies rely on their products from Chinese branches. If they consider all upstream products from China, German enterprises' dependence on China's supply chain is as high as 46%. According to German media reports, for the export -oriented German economy, sales performance in the Chinese market has affected millions of employment in Germany. Whether it is Volkswagen, Siemens, and BASF, or many German medium -sized enterprises, which are known as invisible champions, have set up production bases in China and even move the R & D department to China. Even if they are not sold in China or they are not sold in China or German companies produced inevitably need to purchase equipment or upstream products of Chinese manufacturers.

However, Sun Keqin, a researcher at the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations, did not recognize Germany's unilateral dependence on China in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 6th. He told reporters that according to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2021, the bilateral trade volume of China -Germany was approximately 1.52 trillion yuan, of which China imported about 775 trillion yuan from Germany, exporting about 744 trillion yuan to Germany. The import and export volume of the two parties is very balanced, and it is a very complementary and mutually beneficial trade structure. The German economy unilaterally regards the "high dependence" pattern of German economic unilateral face.

Sun Keqin believes that Germany is a traditional import and export country, and has always been higher to the exterior. This is the resource allocation of economic globalization in accordance with the economic globalization background, and it has also obtained the basic driving force for its own economic development.

Get rid of China? It is difficult to take advantage of Germany

For some time, some German politicians and so -called research institutions have frequently announced that Germany should not fall into a "trap" dependence on China's economy and require the government to re -consider economic relations with China. The German Institute of Economic Research (IW) encouraged German companies to reduce investment in China and put investment in China to invest in China in the first half of this year. "Focus" Weekly also stated on the 3rd of this month that German Economic Minister Habeck is changing the policy of China, and even reviews whether China continues to call China "partner."

However, the German economy generally opposes the above views. Germany reported that the German Industry Federation (BDI) chairman Ruswellm said: "We should not fundamentally question the economic relationship with China." The German Business Daily said that although the "German domestic" domestic "" The warning "is getting more and more loud, but German companies such as BASF, Volkswagen, BMW, and Ao Lei have invested in China this year, and almost no company is willing to miss China's development opportunities.

"Why is the German economy inseparable from China?" In August, the German IFO Institute reported that the losses caused to the German economy with China's trade war would be six times that of Brexit. According to the report, if both parties take higher import tariffs and other trade barriers, the GDP in Germany (GDP) will be reduced by at least 0.81%. If German companies will move back to Germany, German GDP will fall by nearly 10%. One of the report authors, Vlach believes: "Deading globalization will not only increase the unemployment rate, decreases the economic growth rate, but also will eventually damage the political stability of this country. Enterprises should not leave important trading partners without necessary. "

"Delayed" logic is an imagination

"China has always maintained a multilateral trading mechanism, and the global integrity and security of the production chain and supply chain. Therefore, China has never restricted the economic and trade relations with Germany, nor can it be that the" decourse '. Some of the non -existent logic that some domestic interest groups have come up with. "Sun Keqin told reporters like the" decoustal "sound of German public opinion recently appeared.

Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of International Institute of International Issues, also told the Global Times reporter on the 6th that the noise of "get rid of the dependence on China" mixed with too many political factors, and it did not conform to the laws of economic.

Sun Keqin analyzed that with the rapid rise of China, the United States and Western countries were afraid of the trend of "eastward and west", constantly politicizing the economic and trade relations with China, and further derived that "China's values ​​and even social systems in Western countries and even social systems The error understanding of threats. In this case, the United States took the lead in proposing "decoupling" with China, and forced Europe to join in it. Especially after the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the West was passively dependent on Russia's energy, which caused a strong fear of "high dependence on China" in economic and trade relations.

However, the current status of the cooperation between China -Germany economic and trade relations determines that Germany cannot get rid of "dependence" in China.The aforementioned two experts believe that a cooperation chain formed by an industry for many years is very complicated. "Hard decourse" is a loss to both parties.It is unable to put it into implementation.As Wolf said in an interview: "If we suddenly cut off China's exports to Europe today, this is unimaginable." He believes that those demands are immediately resettled by the supply chain and reorganized Germany's so -called in the Chinese factory in China.The voice, "completely unrealistic."

Cui Hongjian pointed out that China has always adhered to the principle of marketization and has always maintained a multilateral trade system with the world's trade organizations as its core. It never politicized economic and trade issues. Germany should dispel doubts about economic and trade cooperation with China.▲

Reporter Ni Hao, a special reporter in Germany Zhao Dong

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