In the fourth quarter, it may become a stage of rising gold prices

In the third quarter, the price of gold has gradually stopped in the panic of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. In the past two months, the price of gold in the past two months is in the process of oscillation. What will happen in the fourth quarter? Main factor: US dollar index and actual yield of US debt.

International Gold Price Daily K -line

▲ In March of this year, the international gold price trend since the historical high point

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

1

Euras economy's impact on the US dollar and gold prices

Gold is denominated in the US dollar, and the two are negatively related. The strong cycle of the US dollar index often corresponds to the weakness of gold. The euro accounts for 60%of the US dollar index component. The strength and weakness of the US and the euro economy generally determines the trend of the US dollar index. Now the economic issue of the euro zone is prominent, corresponding to the strength of the US dollar index. the key of. In addition to the US dollar, the actual yield of the US debt is the opportunity cost of gold, and the opposite relationship is very obvious. The actual yield of the US debt is obtained from the difference between the nominal yield and inflation, reflecting the strong and weak relationship between the economy and inflation.

Overall, the first thing to judge the gold price in the fourth quarter is that the first thing that needs to be known to the economy and the economy of the US economy and the euro zone is trending, and the economic situation of the euro area and the United States needs to be expected by the market. The expected changes may cause severe changes; the second thing that needs to be known is the faster weakening of the United States inflation and the economy. The weakness of the United States inflation and the weakness of the economy has begun to appear, and judging relative changes is the key.

The euro area is not good. In the case of its own economy, it has not returned to the epidemic, and it has encountered a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Due to the serious dependence of the EU's energy on Russia, imported energy prices soared, which eventually led to severe inflation in most European countries. In recent days, many European countries have encountered rare high -temperature and dry weather in history, and production and life have been greatly affected. The euro area inflation is still rising, the economic boom index has fallen, and the market is very pessimistic about the economy of the euro zone. The negative news about the euro zone has emerged endlessly. It was 1: 1 for the US dollar at a parity. Perhaps the euro economy will continue to weaken, but there have been relatively full feedback from the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar.

2

US economic situation and US dollar index

The market does not have a consistent view of the US economic situation. At present, the US economy has declined for two consecutive quarters, but it still shows a certain degree of toughness. The employment rate has returned to the epidemic. The service industry has contributed to economic growth, and its economy is weak and failure. And at present the market is more concerned about the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike, which increases the rate of interest rates of US debt, adds motivation to the US dollar index, to a certain extent covering the current situation of weakening the US economy. In fact, in the case of high inflation, the US economic power is slowly diminishing. The actual income of consumers decreased year -on -year, the cost of life rose, and the consumer confidence index decreased. The increase in capital costs has also reduced the willingness to invest in real estate and fixed assets.

Under the epidemic, some personnel withdrew from the labor market. There was a gap between the labor participation rate before the epidemic, and there was a labor gap and weakened economic motivation. The Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates, and the unfavorable economic conditions continue to exist. The weak economic weakness may be gradually exposed. These situations are not enough in market expectations.

The changes in the macroeconomic economy are slow. Perhaps in a quarter, it cannot completely make a particularly great change in the European and American economy. However, over time, once it is expected, the market performance will be very obvious. In the process of the market's weakening of the US economy gradually consistent, the strength of the US dollar index may be attenuated, but in just three months, it is difficult to turn, and it may turn into a broad oscillation trend.

3

The impact of American inflation on gold prices

Inflation. This inflation is not just caused by the super loose monetary policy, and has a deeper background. The United States has shifted to inverse globalization. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, international division of labor collaboration has encountered obstacles, regional advantages have been broken, and the cost of raw materials and finished products has increased significantly. The inflation of countries and regions such as Europe and other industrial chains is high. In addition, the regional conflict has exacerbated the supply of energy and agricultural products, leading to rising related prices. These problems are not solved by a country through domestic policies, and it is difficult to change in the short term. Even though U.S. inflation has been seen, it may still be maintained in the fourth quarter.

Compared with inflation, the US economy is more likely to weaken. The 10 -year US inflation index bond yield may be difficult to maintain at a high level of 3.2%in the fourth quarter. After the Fed ’s interest rate hike in September, the most aggressive interest rate hikes passed. In the past, 50 basis or 75 basis points may be increased by two interest rate hikes.

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