Ding Yujia: CPI is over PPI year -on -year.

Zhongxin Jingwei September 9th. Question: CPI is over PPI year -on -year.

Author Ding Yujia Zhizhi Investment Research Institute researcher

In August, the CPI (residential consumer price index) and PPI (industrial producer's factory price index) were lower than market expectations. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in August rose from 0.5%to 0.1%from the previous month, and 0.2 percentage points fell from the same month to 2.5%. The same monthly declined 1.9 percentage points to rose 2.3%. Since 2021, the CPI has exceeded PPI for the first time, and the price of price scissors has ushered in reversal.

In August, the CPI decline was mainly due to the slowdown in food prices. Food prices rose 0.5%month -on -month, and the increase fell 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. The pull -up effect on CPI decreased from 0.53 percentage points of last month to 0.1 percentage points. The prices of pork and vegetables with the greatest contributions to food prices have declined to varying degrees from the previous month, down 25.2 and 8.3 percentage points from the previous month. In August, it belongs to the off -season of pork consumption. The seasonal seasons are weakened and the rhythm of the pig out of pigs has gradually recovered. The price of pork is high. Although the northern vegetables were listed in large quantities, the high temperature and drought in the south affected vegetable production and supply. The price of fresh vegetables fell first and then rose. Due to the high price base in July, the month -on -month increase was lower than the historical average of the same period. The seasonal uplink of egg prices in food still supports CPI. The decline in non -food prices has expanded, and traffic communication items are still mainly dragged. International crude oil prices fluctuated to the level before the Russian and Ukraine conflict. The fuel price of CPI transportation continued to grow negative growth, and the price of industrial consumer goods decreased by 0.7%month -on -month. In August, the impact of high temperatures and epidemic conditions was better than July. The release of travel demand was suppressed, and the consumer prices of services such as tourism and transportation fell. The core CPI of food and energy prices rose by 0.1%from the previous month to flat, and it still maintained a low level of operation of 0.8%year -on -year.

In August, industrial products continued the overall downward trend, resulting in a sharp decline in PPI. Among the year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the contribution of the tail-tailed factor was about 2.5 percentage points. The new price increase was about -0.2 percentage points. The prices of production materials and living materials fell. Compared with the small downward settlement of the price of living materials, the price of production materials is affected by the fluctuation of the price of commodities such as international crude oil and non -ferrous metals, the effect of domestic coal and other industries such as continued to appear, and the demand for steel and other industries. %, Affecting PPI down about 1.18 percentage points, almost contributed that the PPI declined all the month -on -month declines, and the year -on -year decreased by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. The prices of upstream coal, petroleum, natural gas, chemistry and other industries have expanded, and the year -on -year increase has fallen. Demonstrated by infrastructure investment, black metals, non -ferrous metals, and non -metal mines have improved slightly, and the decline has narrowed from the previous month, but it is still downward. The cost pressure of midstream and downstream enterprises is further relieved, and profits are shifted from upstream to middle and lower reaches.

Looking forward to the price trend in September, as high temperature affects the retreat, Mid -Autumn Festival, National Day and other major holidays, consumption is expected to accelerate repair. However, the overall prevention and control situation of the current epidemic is still severe, and inter -provincial flow may be limited. In September, the price of pork was in the upward cycle, but as the pork reserves of various places were put in one after another, the price of pork prices had limited kinetic energy. It is expected that the CPI will rise again in September. Whether it can break the "3" depends on whether the market expectations of the market's expected market and the disturbance of demand repair will continue. As Europe and the United States firmly promote interest rate hikes and overseas recession risks exacerbated the price of international commodities, and the domestic situation is superimposed, PPI will continue to fall sharply year -on -year. In the context of the reducing pressure of domestic input price conduction, the normalization of the epidemic prevention and control, and the strong and orderly preservation price, the characteristics of the great fluctuations in PPI in the past were significantly weakened. In the next six months or even longer, the situation of high CPI and low PPI may continue. Keeping the low -level operation of PPI is conducive to the improvement of the production and operation of midstream and downstream enterprises, and has a positive effect on promoting economic recovery and economic stable growth. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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