A number of heavy data reflect China's economic growth toughness

10SEP

A number of heavy data reflects China's economic growth and toughness. On September 9th, a number of heavy data was released: the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (residential consumer price index) and PPI (industrial producer factory price index) data in August 2022 ; People's Bank of China released financial statistics in August. Although the current downward pressure on China's economy is relatively large, the changes in the above -mentioned data reflect the continuous enhancement of my country's economic toughness and kinetic energy. The consumer market is generally stable, and prices are expected to continue to run in a reasonable range. Data show that in August, CPI rose by 2.5%year -on -year, and from 0.5%in July to 0.1%from July, a year -on -year increase below 2.8%of the previous market expectations, and continued to maintain a moderate rising range. In recent months, my country's CPI gains have been operating in a reasonable range, which is in sharp contrast to international high inflation. On the one hand, it is the strong stimulus policy of "large water drilling" in my country. In the face of international input inflation, the domestic market has increased the stability and price; Egg milk production capacity is stable, and the area and yield of vegetables in the fields increase, which means that the price situation is expected to continue to be stable during the year, and it will provide sufficient space for the flexible adjustment of macro policies. In addition, in August, PPI rose by 2.3%year -on -year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, a decrease of 1.2%month -on -month, and a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from July. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that in addition to the impact of the comparison base of the same period last year in the same period of the previous year, the PPI increased was also mainly affected by the price of commodities such as international crude oil and non -ferrous metals. The effect of supply continues to appear, the market supply guarantee is strong, and the demand for industries such as steel is weak. Judging from the situation in the next stage, insufficient demand is still the main contradiction of the current economic operation, but the policy of maintaining stability and price will continue to advance. The contradiction between the supply and demand of some domestic energy and raw materials has eased. It will continue to continue to fall. In addition, financial data recovered in August and revealed positive signals. Data show that in August, RMB loans increased by 1.25 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 39 billion yuan. From the previous month, the increase in the new scale of 679 billion yuan in July, an increase of significant increases. From the perspective of the sub -department, household loans increased by 458 billion yuan, of which short -term loans increased by 192.2 billion yuan, and medium- and long -term loans increased by 265.8 billion yuan; loans of enterprises (affairs) industry units increased by 875 billion yuan. The recovery of medium and long -term loans for enterprises means that financial institutions' support for enterprises is increasing. Since the beginning of this year, financial institutions have used various monetary policy tools to increase loans to better meet the needs of real economy financing. In addition, short -term loans of residents have also improved significantly, which means that consumption confidence has recovered and the willingness to consume is increased. As can be seen through the above data, with the successive effect of a policy of stabilizing the economy and the continuation measures, more and more positive factors for economic growth will be. For future economic growth, we are confident to maintain optimistic expectations.

In August, CPI rose by 2.5% year -on -year PPI increases and continued to decline. Experts interviewed said that the difference in scissors has been significantly converged, and the macro -regulation and stable economic market reporter Meng Ke National Bureau of Statistics released data on September 9th. Resident consumer price index (CPI) and industrial producers' factory price index (PPI) increased slightly year -on -year. Among them, CPI rose by 2.5%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July; PPI rose 2.3%year -on -year, and the increase fell 1.9 percentage points from July. "Driven by factors such as the increase in the price of fresh vegetables and the decline in the price of refined oil, the year -on -year increase in CPI in August is lower than the market expectations. The current upward price of the pig cycle, and the CPI of food prices has increased greater. Non -food price increases continue to be low. "Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter. Specifically, food prices rose 6.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July, which affected CPI by about 1.09 percentage points. In food, the price of pork rose 22.4%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from July, mainly due to the lower base of the same period last year. As the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day holidays come, the demand is improved, and the price of pork has shown upward trend. However, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 9 that the overall judgment was that the supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period was guaranteed, and the price was expected to run in a reasonable range. Among non -food, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose 3.0%year -on -year, and the increase of 0.5 percentage points from July, of which the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 20.2%, 21.9%, and 19.8%, respectively, and the increases fell. In this regard, Wang Qing said that, driven by international crude oil prices continued to decline, the price of domestic refined oil products in August continued to reduce, which means that the price of commodities weakened to the CPI transmission and became one of the important factors to suppress CPI. In terms of PPI, August rose 2.3%year -on -year, and the increase fell 1.9 percentage points from July. Among them, the price of production materials rose by 2.4%, affecting the increase of PPI by about 1.87 percentage points, which is the main driving force for PPI to rise; the price of living data rose by 1.6%, affecting the PPI rising by about 0.38 percentage points. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in addition to the impact of the comparison base of the same period last year, PPI's year -on -year increase was also affected by three factors: First, international crude oil, non -ferrous metals and other commodities fluctuated downward. The pressure of input price conduction has been reduced; second, the effect of increasing production and supply in the coal and other industries has continued to appear, and the market supply guarantee is strong; the third is affected by multiple factors, and the demand for steel and other industries is weak. "Recently, as the ppi ppi rose rapidly, the" scissors difference "between production materials and living materials PPI have significantly converged, and the pressure on the cost of raw materials faced by middle and lower reaches is significantly relieved." Wang Qing believes that the current middle and lower reaches enterprises Operating pressure has shifted from the cost side to the demand side. Looking forward to the future, Wang Qing believes that PPI will continue to fall year -on -year. On the one hand, the central banks of the world's major economies in the world can suppress high inflation through a sharp interest rate hike, bringing downward pressure on economic growth. The global economic recession is expected to be stronger, and the demand for commodities is expected. Force, the speedy of infrastructure investment will bring back power to domestic industrial products. However, considering that the short -term mainland investment in the short -term maintenance is obviously recovered, the superimposed insurance price policy continues to make efforts, and the price of industrial products is difficult to rise rapidly. Combined with data, many people in the industry believe that the rise in prices is mild and controllable. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that from the perspective of price data, the current moderate rise in prices in China reflects that the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable and insufficient demand is still the main contradiction in the current economic operation. Economic market. On the one hand, continue to do a good job of guaranteeing the price of important commodities; on the other hand, accelerate the implementation of the real workload of investment projects and promote consumption with investment. "In the context of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike and shrinkage, my country will continue to play a dual function and structural dual function of monetary policy tools, expand the demand for valid credit, and reduce the cost of financing in the real economy." Wen Bin said. Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Langlian Federation Greater China, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the CPI rising and controllable, the camera choice space of monetary policy tools, and the coordination space of monetary policies and fiscal policies and industrial policies More broadly. "In order to further stabilize the price, the key is to combine the guarantee, stabilizing price, management expectations with comprehensive linkage, accurate regulation, scientific supervision, and long -term policy. Through more accurate and effective policy combinations With energy security, keep prices basically stable, alleviate the pressure of corporate costs, and ensure the demand for basic people's livelihood supply. "Pang Yan said. New RMB loans in August increased by 12.2%year -on -year increased consumption demand for residents. The company's medium and long -term loans continued to improve, and the confidence of economic recovery prospects Liu Qi recovered the financial data in August in August. On September 9, the People's Bank of China released financial data in August, RMB loans increased by 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 39 billion yuan year -on -year; the scale of social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan, 557.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

The two increased significantly compared with 679 billion yuan and 756.1 billion yuan in July, respectively. "In August, RMB loan mainly presented the characteristics of weak residents." Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of Zhongliang Lianliang Federation, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter. In terms of RMB loans increased by 1.25 trillion yuan, the sub -department saw that residential loans increased by 458 billion yuan, of which short -term loans increased by 192.2 billion yuan, medium and long -term loans increased by 265.8 billion yuan; enterprise (affairs) industry units increased by 875 billion yuan Among them, short -term loans decreased by 12.1 billion yuan, medium and long -term loans increased by 735.3 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 159.1 billion yuan; non -bank financial institutions loans decreased by 42.5 billion yuan. Pang Ye further stated that high -frequency data shows that real estate sales in August are still in the stage of building recovery year -on -year, and it has dragged down residents' medium- and long -term loans in August. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that compared with the consumption demand in August in August, the residents' medium- and long -term loans fell year -on Improvement, on the one hand, reflects the gradual release of domestic efforts to help enterprises and the effect of stabilizing investment policies, on the other hand, reflects the improvement of domestic enterprises' confidence in economic recovery prospects. In terms of social financing, social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan. In August, the increase in social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan, 557.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued by the real economy increased by 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 63.1 billion yuan year -on -year; foreign currency loans issued by the real economy were equivalent to RMB 82.6 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 117.3 billion yuan; The year -on -year increase of 157.8 billion yuan; trust loans decreased by 47.2 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 89 billion yuan; unimpeded bank acceptance bills increased by 348.5 billion yuan, an increase of 335.8 billion yuan year -on -year; 100 million yuan; net financing of government bonds was 304.5 billion yuan, a year -on -year 669.3 billion yuan; the domestic stock financing of non -financial enterprises was 125.1 billion yuan, a year -on -year less than 22.7 billion yuan. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that social finances have increased less in August, which are mainly dragged down by government bond financing, corporate bond financing, and foreign currency loans. At the end of August, the balance of the broad currency (M2) was 2.5951 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.2%year -on -year. The increase was 6.1%, the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than the end of July, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the balance of currency (M0) in circulation was 9.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.3%year -on -year. The monthly net cash was put in cash of 72.2 billion yuan. "M2 maintained an increase of 12.2%year -on -year, reflecting the continuous efforts of domestic fiscal policies and monetary policy, increasing basic currencies, and driving residents and corporate deposits to increase." Generally speaking The demand is improved, the structure continues to optimize, but the demand for physical financing is still weak as a whole. In the later period, the policy level still needs to work together. Pang Ye believes that the current monetary policy has more relaxed space in terms of total volume. The policy signal shows that it will continue to take care of the economic recovery and confidence repair and non -excessive stimuli, continue to prevent funds from being detached from reality, continue to keep the system that does not occur. The balance between the bottom line of sexual risks, focusing on continuing to focus on the conduction chain from wide currencies to wide credit to maintain the smooth and moderate growth of currency credit. Recommended reading

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