Price running smooth macro policy space is sufficient

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 10th. On the 10th, the article "China Securities News" published an article "Steady Macro Policy Space Fether". According to the article, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the National Residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) in August increased by 2.5%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which was also lower than the previous market forecast average. Analysts said that my country's prices continue to maintain the overall stable operation, which is in sharp contrast to the high inflation in Europe and the United States, which also means that my country's monetary policy is more conditional to focus on steady growth, strive to expand demand, and consolidate economic recovery to a good trend.

Data map, Xinhua News Agency sent

CPI's year -on -year increase fell

"In August, the consumer market operation was generally stable, and the CPI data from the previous month to decline, and the year -on -year increase declined slightly."

Earlier, some market institutions predicted that the August CPI would basically increase or even expand from last month (up 2.7%). According to Wind data statistics, the average prediction of the market in August CPI was 2.8%, and the minimum value was 2.6%. The actual data is lower than the prediction average, or even lower than the minimum value of the forecast.

Data show that in August, the year -on -year increase in food prices and non -food prices fell. Dong Lijuan introduced that in August, food prices rose 6.1%year -on -year, non -food prices rose 1.7%year -on -year, and the increase was 0.2 percentage points fell by 0.2 percentage.

According to Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, the increase in the price of fresh vegetables in food prices significantly falling is one of the main reasons for the year -on -year increase of CPI in August. In addition, the price reduction of refined oil oil has also slowed down non -food prices. The year -on -year increase of the core CPI continued to be at a low level, showing that the current price situation is stable.

The slowdown in consumer prices has performed more obvious in data from the previous month. In August, the CPI data rose from 0.5%to 0.1%from last month. Among them, food prices rose by 0.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month; non -food prices fell by 0.3%, and the decrease was 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Food prices, especially pork prices, have always been an important factor affecting the operation of CPI. Dong Lijuan mentioned that the pigs' column in August gradually returned to normal, coupled with the seasons of consumer demand, the price of pork rose 0.4%month -on -month, and the increase was 25.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The China Securities Journal reporter noticed that on September 8th, the relevant departments launched the first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year, and instructed various places to increase pork reserves recently. In addition, relevant departments have recently organized industry associations, head breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold meetings to study and do a good job of stable and stable prices in the pig market. According to the analysis of relevant parties, the supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period of this year is guaranteed, and prices are expected to run in a reasonable range.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Institute, predicts that as the consumption season comes, the impact of the same period of the same period of 2021, the probability of the CPI increase in September will increase slightly, but it will remain at a reasonable level.

"The cpi expected regulation goal of about 3%of this year can be achieved. The domestic price level may be slightly higher than the previous months in the next few months to next quarter." Yang Yinkai, deputy secretary -general of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that Essence

Industrial product price overall downward down

In August, the price trend of industrial products declined as a whole. The national industrial producer's factory price index (PPI) rose 2.3%year -on -year, the increase fell 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, and fell for 10 consecutive months.

Dong Lijuan believes that, in addition to the impact of the comparison base of the previous year in the same period of the previous year, the PPI increase was also affected by three factors: international crude oil, non -ferrous metals and other commodities fluctuated down, and the pressure on domestic input price conduction was reduced. The effect of increasing production and supply in the industry continues to appear, and the market supply guarantee is strong; due to multiple factors, the demand for steel and other industries is weak.

"In the future, the year -on -year increase in PPI will continue to fall." Wang Qing analyzed, on the one hand, some major overseas central banks have responded to high inflation through currency tightening, bringing downward pressure on economic growth, and affecting the expectations of commodity demand. On the other hand, the domestic supply -stabilization policy has continued to make efforts, and the price of industrial products is difficult to rise rapidly. In addition, the basis of the same period last year has risen, and the PPI tail factor will continue to fall in the next few months, which means that the probability of PPI's year -on -year increase will continue to narrow in September. This not only helps relieve corporate cost pressure, enhance economic restoration momentum, but also helps to consolidate the current price stable operation.

Failure to stable growth effectiveness release

Since the beginning of this year, my country's prices have continued to maintain overall stable operation, which is in sharp contrast to Europe and the United States high inflation. From the perspective of experts, the stable price situation provides favorable conditions for the fixation of macro policies.

"The relatively low prices are conducive to opening the policy regulation space and the release of the effect of stabilizing growth." Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities.

Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, recently said that monetary policy serves economic fundamentals and financial environment, and monetary policy should be different. The current space of Chinese monetary policy is relatively sufficient and rich in policy tools. The People's Bank of China will adhere to the implementation of a stable monetary policy, effectively and effective use of policy tools, take into account the relationship between stable growth, employment and stability, and cope with various risks and challenges.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that my country's monetary policy will adhere to the "master of me", give full play to the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, expand the demand for valid credit, and reduce the cost of financing of real economy. "The later monetary policy and fiscal policy have room for further effort in the direction of steady growth." Wang Qing believed.

In addition, Li Qilin reminded that the demand for the slowdown in price increases should be alert.

The executive meeting of the State Council held a few days ago emphasized that insufficient demand is the current prominent contradiction. It is necessary to focus on consumption and investment demand, promote social investment, and consumption with investment.

"Next, we should continue to do a good job of macro -control, continue to do a good job of guaranteeing and stable prices for important commodities, accelerate the implementation of investment projects to form a physical workload, promote consumption with investment, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range." Wen Bin said.

Li Qilin believes that in September, with the decline in temperature, the construction industry has entered the peak construction period. At the same time, the impact of power supply on the manufacturing industry has weakened, and policy financial instruments have accelerated the implementation. It is expected to accelerate and drive more social investment and needs.

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