The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is completely inclined to 75 base points.

The adjustment of U.S. stocks began in mid -August. Although the Federal Reserve officials have strengthened the expectations of a significant interest rate hike again in the September meeting, the market's pricing of monetary policy is close to completion.

At present, investors are waiting for the key inflation data for next week to find more clues to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The derivatives market undercurrents undercurrents, and multi -wrestling may reach new balances. eve.

How much will the Fed raise interest rates this time (Source: Xinhua News Agency)

High interest rate suspense is almost revealed

In the past week, as the Fed continued to express its determination to suppress inflation, radical policies expected to further increase the yield of US dollars and US debt.

The Federal Reserve President Powell delivered a speech in the discussion of the monetary policy of Kato research that the longer the inflation rate was higher than the goal, the greater the risk of the public as the normal state. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve is firmly committed to controlling prices and hopes to achieve this goal without having to bear the cost of "very high social costs".

Judging from the latest statement, the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) has reached an important consensus on the issue of inflation. For example, the Federal Reserve director Christopher Waller said last week that if inflation does not decrease, the Fed may have to increase its benchmark interest rate to "far higher than 4%." San Louis Fed Chairman James Bullard reiterated that he will support 75 basis points at the Federal Reserve meeting later this month.

Bob Schwartz, a senior economist of Oxford Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that a series of tough statements including Powell, including Powell, showed that the increase in the number of peaks and slowing growth of inflation Below, the Fed's determination to continue to tighten monetary policy has not changed.

This week, the United States will announce the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Due to the continued decline in gasoline prices, and the sales price growth rate in the survey of the purchasing manager index (PMI), the institution predicts that the CPI will decline last month. The cooling of the price is welcomed by the Federal Reserve, but it is not enough to relax it. Lael Brainard, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, recently said that "several months" data can be convinced that the inflation rate is falling to 2%.

The expected interest rate hike expects to increase the yield of US bonds, and the two -year US debt with a close relationship with interest rates has reached a new high since 2007. The CME interest rate observation tool Fedwatch shows that the probability of rating 75 base points this month has increased from 57%in the previous week to 91%. Goldman Sachs raised interest rate hikes to 75 base points last week. It is expected to raise interest rates 50 basis points in November. Federal fund interest rates will reach 3.75%to 4%at the end of the year. The bank said that Fed officials seemed to imply that the progress of inflation is not as consistent or rapid as they wanted.

Schwartz told the First Finance that the Federal Reserve has expected that policy and measures will bring some pain to the economy, but before the inflation is controlled, this road will continue. "Although the financial market frequently re -procure the Fed's policy prospects, it is coming soon. The data only confirmed to the Federal Reserve that the policy has taken the right track. "He analyzed that the Federal Public Marketing Committee increased the fund interest rate of 75 basis points at the September meeting, and then increased interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. High -frequency data shows that the US supply chain status has improved. At the same time, the slowdown in demand under economic pressure will help release price pressure, but inflation will not return to normal level soon. Schwartz predicts that price risk will last at least 2023.

How far can the rebound go?

Under the impact of the Fed's expectations and the pressure of global economic slowdown, risk preferences have dropped the maximum section of US stocks in the past three weeks by more than 8%. In the second half of last week, with the ease of market emotions, the rising trend of the medium and long -term US debt narrowed and the US dollar index fell from a 20 -year high.

The flow of funds showed that investors continued to sell US stocks in the first half of last week. According to the data of Refinitiv-Lipper, in the week of September 7, the US stock fund had a total net outflow of US $ 14.83 billion, setting a record for the largest single week since June 15 this year. Among them, the net redemption of growth funds was US $ 4.21 billion, and it was sold for the fourth consecutive week. Value funds were sold for $ 2.79 billion in a short period of time.

The First Financial reporter noticed that many institutions understood that the rebound in the past week was the result of the stock market falling into the "oversold" area. Statistics show that as of last Friday, the proportion of the stocks listed on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the US Stock Exchange below the 200 -day long -term moving average have exceeded 75%. The emotional index also approached the level of the market low in June.

Derivatives transactions are again active, and long -term counterparts continue to be fierce, and funds rubbing their fists on the eve of the Federal Reserve Conference. According to the data provided by Jiaxin Finance, the average daily transaction volume of U.S. stocks has reached 41.2 million copies since September, higher than 39.7 million copies in August. Last week, the panic index VIX had a decrease of 0.3%month -on -month, and the amount of options increased by 0.7%. At the same time, the S & P 500 index increased the bullish options and the volume of declining options increased by 3.0%month -on -month. Compared with the previous weeks, the market sentiment has shifted from being short to neutrality.

However, the continuity of the rebound still needs to be observed. Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned that investors must prepare for the "road of rugged recovery". At present, the two major indicators of Goldman Sachs -the fundamental Niu Bear indicators and emotional risk appetite indicators have not yet issued a bear market end signal. "When both are close to the polar value, they can provide a strong reversal signal, otherwise the market will continue to be turbulent before forming a decisive trough. Compared with the experience of the past few decades, this bear market rebounds rebound. The duration and scale of duration are not uncommon. Before the U.S. stocks determine the bottom, the market will be softened and fluctuated. The valuation needs to continue to decline, at least the risk of recession and the possible terminal interest rate for pricing. "Compared with the comparison of the comparison. In the following, Mislav Matejka, chief strategist of Morgan Chase, believes that inflation will help support the stock market at the remaining time this year, so it is not pessimistic. He wrote that although commercial activities data showed that the worst stage of the US economy has not yet arrived, the bad data will begin to be considered as good. This logic may continue to be established. At the same time, it will be optimistic about corporate profit performance. Essence

Responsible editor: Wang Shidan | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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