Futures Weekly ｜ Small commodity fluctuates upward, pig prices may be up to phase highs, and the expected period is planned to push industrial silicon futures during the year

Southern Finance All -Media reporter Weng Rongtao intern Sun Yongle Guangzhou reported

This week, before the silent period, the Federal Reserve expressed the eagle, and continued to suppress market interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank also entered a fast interest rate hike model. In the domestic side, the PMI fell below the Rongku Line in August. But structural characteristics are unchanged.

During the week (September 5th-September 9th), most of the commodities closed up, of which the black and non-ferrous metal sectors fluctuated upward. Affected by various factors such as international crude oil, non -ferrous metals such as the price fluctuation transmission of commodities, and the weak market demand in the domestic industry, the price trend of industrial products has declined as a whole.

From the perspective of the domestic futures market, the energy chemical sector fell 3.36%, fuel fell 6.90%, LPG fell 0.62%; the black sector, iron ore rose 7.94%, coke coal rose by 2.86%, coke rose 4.08 by 4.08 %, The glass rose 6.02%; the non -ferrous metal sector, Shanghai nickel rose 16.95%, Shanghai aluminum rose 4.72%, and Shanghai copper rose 5.93%; agricultural product sector, palm oil fell 3.30%, soybean oil fell 2.04%, and pigs rose 0.28%.

Hot spots of trading market:

Hotspot 1: The Development and Reform Commission judges that the supply of pigs in the later period is guaranteed and the price is expected to run in a reasonable range

Recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, organized industry associations, head breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold meetings to analyze the supply and demand and price situation of pig markets, and study the work of the pig market for stable prices and prices. Essence Overall judgment, the supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period of this year is guaranteed, and the price is expected to run in a reasonable range.

According to the analysis of the relevant parties, the current price of pig food is in a reasonable range, and the average profit of pig farming heads is significantly higher than the historical average. For example, the price of pigs has further increased significantly, which may lead to excessive increase in production capacity and a sharp decline in later prices, which is not conducive to long -term healthy development of the industry. Essence

Regarding the later price trend, all parties believe that the current production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant, and the amount of sows can continue to rise continuously; the amount of new pig pigs has increased significantly since the second quarter, and the amount of fattening pigs in the later period will increase accordingly. The amount of quantity rises monthly; after the weather turns cold, the growth rate of fattening pigs will increase, and the supply of pork will increase further.

In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market with relevant departments, take strong and effective measures in a timely manner to ensure that the price of pigs run in a reasonable range, and promote the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Hotspot 2: Insufficient market confidence in the interest rate hike cycle, the second half of the year or the disadvantaged operation

This year, the black and non -ferrous commodity market shows the overall trend of decline. In the first half of the year, overseas Russia and Ukraine conflicts, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the domestic epidemic was scattered, and the local area was intertwined with the slowdown in real estate demand, and the difficulty of market research and judgment increased.

Chen Yingfan, Hui Shi Private Equity Fund, believes that black products still need to be treated empty. From a macro perspective, due to the expectations of overseas interest rate hikes, the suppression of market sentiment is more serious. In addition, the domestic epidemic rebounds, and the suppression of consumption and market confidence is relatively obvious.

On the one hand, due to the end of the power restrictions in various places, the re -production rate of electric furnaces has accelerated; on the other hand, the production of billet rolling materials has recovered rapidly, and the supply of material supply has increased, resulting in an increase in market steel supply. expected.

In terms of demand, the current overall demand is weak. As the largest market for downstream consumption in steel, its weak pattern has settled the overall demand of the market. It is expected that the demand in the fourth quarter will also be very weak, or the historical needs will be seen. Even if infrastructure and industrial demand has increased, it is difficult to change the weak pattern of the steel market demand.

Chen Yingfan finally concluded that the demand of steel formation determines the direction of the entire black system. Due to the demand for the middle period of the middle period, the overall direction of the black script is downward, and the speed of the price declines depends on the speed of demand decline.

Industry policy news:

Must News 1: China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum successfully ended futures to help the construction of a unified market in the country

2022 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum ended successfully on September 8th. In the 3 -day forum, guests in the field of futures at home and abroad closely followed the new bureau of "steadily promoting the development of the rule of law to lead the new bureau -futures help the country's unified market The theme of construction has launched extensive ideological exchanges and wisdom collisions online. The positive signals conveyed by this forum provide important references with better development of the futures market.

At this forum, focusing on the new trend of China's and world economic development, the high -quality development of China's futures and derivatives under the leadership of the rule of law, deepening the innovation of futures market services, and giving full play to the role of futures functions to highlight the futures market.

In the main forum and the Futures Rule of Law Construction Sub -Forum, the guests conducted in -depth discussions and authoritative interpretations of the system dividends of the futures market, the institutional dividend of the futures market, and hot issues in the construction of futures.

In April this year, the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of the National Unified Market" was released. The futures market is an important place for resource allocation, and it is also an important starting point for building a national unified market. As one of the main themes of this forum, the futures market has helped to build an important signal released by the national unified market.

Maintenance 2: The first variety in the wide period is finalized for industrial silicon futures to be launched within the year

The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the "Broadcasting Institute") is about to usher in the listing of the first futures. Recently, Leng Bing, deputy general manager of the Broadcasting Institute, said at the 2022 Platinum Metal Market Summit that the approval of the industrial silicon futures varieties of the Guangdi Institute has entered a substantive stage and plans to launch industrial silicon futures within the year.

In addition, the Guangdi Institute will also launch platinum and 钯 futures as soon as possible to help the high -quality development of the platinum precious metal industry. At the same time, new varieties such as commodity indexes and carbon emissions rights are also developing and promoting listing.

As an innovative futures exchange, the construction of a wide range of service is positioned in service green development, serving the Greater Bay Area and the "Belt and Road" construction. The current product layout of the wide period mainly involves 16 varieties of four major sections. Among them, platinum and 是 Futures are an important part of the future planning species of the exchange.

In order to welcome the new varieties of the wide range, many futures companies have made full preparations in investment research and investment, technical system construction, and settlement and settlement operations. Many futures companies have investigated the upper and lower reaches of the industrial silicon industry chain, and some companies will be prepared to be prepared to enter the market.

Looking to the performance of the market outlook:

Energy chemical sector:

Crude oil: The market is concerned about economic recession this week, affecting the demand for crude oil, and international oil prices have fallen sharply. In the early days of the week, the Federal Reserve and the major central banks took positive measures to curb inflation, which may trigger a significant slowdown in the economy and even decline. At the same time, the manufacturing industry in Asia has increased, and the market's concerns about economic growth and oil demand have intensified. Its production reduction alliance decided to reduce production slightly in October. In the crude oil futures market, international oil prices fluctuated. It is expected that the price of crude oil futures will dominate next week. (Hehe Futures)

Black system:

Iron ore: Fundamentals, the spot transactions of ports on the 8th rose 66.7%month -on -month, and the average daily transactions of this week rose 5.2%month -on -month. This week, Australia's delivery volume has been basically maintained, Brazil's shipments have risen significantly. The demand for raw material consumption of steel mills continues to increase, the amount of dredging ports has risen sharply, and the inventory of the new phase of the port has been removed again. On the one hand, it is increased by the steel mill pushing goods, and on the other hand, the typhoon weather will affect the rhythm of normal arrival in Hong Kong. The new phase of iron water production continues to rise, and the profit margin of steel mills has stopped rising, and the neutral restoration is slightly restored. It is expected that the domestic epidemic has risen again in the near future, and the terminal demand has not been obvious. It is worth noting that the profits of the blast furnaces announced by the Ganglink caliber are at a low level, focusing on the continuity of the recovery of iron water output in the market outlook. The inventory of extremely low steel mills may become a potential favorable factor, and pay attention to the expectations of the pre -festival to make up the library. The country often increases the policy of stabilizing growth. (Dayue Futures)

Nonferrous metal sector:

Shanghai Nickel: On September 8th, local time, the European Central Bank decided to raise 75 basis points on a sharp interest rate hike, and after evaluation of the inflation situation in the euro zone, the European Central Bank expected to further raise interest rates at the future monetary policy conference. Overlapping the Federal Reserve Eagle interest rate hikes, the peripheral financial environment has entered the tightening of liquidity. The latest August economic data announced in my country shows that the overall economic prospects in the second half of the year are generally "weak", especially exports. For the current nickel market, the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is at a seasonal high level. The import windows are kept opening. Overseas resources continue to flow in, making the supply end more loose. The new energy industry remains strong, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. However, what needs to be seen is that the current level of global nickel explicit inventory is still at a historical low, which has become the most important support for nickel prices in the short term and amplifies the price elasticity of nickel prices under the influence of profitable messages. (Hehe Futures)

Agricultural product sector:

Pig: As the consumption side turns cold, the opening of the middle school and the Mid -Autumn Festival holidays will be increased. The recovery of the consumption of meat products has increased slightly. However, the Mid -Autumn Festival stocking is about to end and the multi -point epidemic has an inhibitory effect on demand. The first batch of 37,700 tons of reserve frozen meat has been put on the market. Guangxi, Sichuan, Jilin, Ningxia, Hunan, and Henan have also launched government pork reserves and launch, forming a joint force with the state of the country's central pork preparation. The storage storage starts the emotions of the breeding end pressure bar, the panic out of the column has increased, the supply of pig farms in the pig farm is significantly measured, and the enthusiasm of the large -scale pig companies has also increased. In addition, according to data from the birth of piglets in the early days, the supply of pigs in August and September was low, and the supply of pigs began in October. Overall, in the short term, it is treated with a high -level shock. Follow -up focus on changes in capacity, terminal consumption, and policy regulation and interference. (Huarong Futures)

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