In August, CPI rose 2.5% year -on -year and fell for the first time in the first half of the year

On September 9, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics released news that in August 2022, consumer prices (CPI) nationwide increased by 2.5%year -on -year. From January to August, the consumption prices across the country rose 1.9%over the same period last year. From a month -on -month perspective, CPI rose from 0.5%last month to 0.1%.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that August CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points year -on -month than last month. This is the case where the CPI increased again in the past six months compared to the decline of the previous month. Among them, as an important factor affecting the CPI, pork increased from the previous quarter.

In addition, according to the official WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission on September 9, recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Department of Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, organizes industry associations, head breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises The pig market supply and demand and price situation, study and do a good job of stabilizing the pig market for stable and stable prices. Relevant parties analyze that the current production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant. The supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period of this year is guaranteed, and the price is expected to run in a reasonable range.

Source of data: Wind, China Merchants Securities, Guotai Junan Securities Research Yang Jing's picture Vision Visual China Map

Pork prices have fallen month -on -month decline

The CPI data in August had a long -lost increase in the year -on -year decline, and from a month -on -month perspective, it has declined, which is the first time since May this year. From the perspective of data, the impact of food prices on the overall CPI trend is still more obvious. Among them, pork increased from the previous month.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed the data analysis that in August, the consumer market operation was generally stable. From a month -on -month perspective, the CPI rose from 0.5%to 0.1%from last month in August. Among them, food prices rose 0.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rose by about 0.10 percentage points. In food, the pig's outpatient column gradually returned to normal, coupled with the seasons of consumer demand, the price of pork rose 0.4%month -on -month, and the increase was 25.2 percentage points from the previous month.

At the aforementioned conference on the stable price price of pig markets, relevant parties analyzed that the current price comparison price of pig food is in a reasonable range, and the average profit of pig farming heads is significantly higher than the historical average. The sharp decline in the later period is not conducive to the long -term healthy development of the industry. Regarding the later price trend, all parties believe that the current production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant, and the amount of sows can continue to rise continuously; the amount of new pig pigs has increased significantly since the second quarter, and the amount of fattening pigs in the later period will increase accordingly. The amount of quantity rises monthly; after the weather turns cold, the growth rate of fattening pigs will increase, and the supply of pork will increase further. Overall judgment, the supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period of this year is guaranteed, and the price is expected to run in a reasonable range.

In addition, the number of vegetables in northern vegetables increased in August, but the high temperature and drought weather in the south in the middle of the middle and the south affected the production and supply of vegetables. The price of fresh vegetables nationwide rose first. The average month of the month increased by 2.0%from the previous month, which was lower than the average level of history. Both the prices of eggs and fresh fruits have changed seasonal changes, rising by 3.5%and decreased by 1.0%; other food prices such as grain, edible vegetable oils, and aquatic products have not changed much.

Non -food prices also declined in August. Hongta Securities Yang Xin told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" through WeChat that on the one hand, it was affected by the downstream commodity and raw material prices. On the other hand, the epidemic in August looked up again, and the offline consumption of residents was affected. The prices of clothing and shoes fell 0.2%and 0.3%, respectively, and the prices of aircraft tickets and transportation leased fees decreased by 7.5%and 1.0%, respectively.

Zhao Wei, the chief economist of Guojin Securities, told reporters of "Daily Economic News" through WeChat that the current impact of non -food price fluctuations on the rhythm of the CPI trend. In the past two months, the CPI trend is lower than expected, and the degree of correlation with non -food items is large. It is also reflected in the core CPI. The main reason is that upstream raw materials have slowed down and transmitted to the slowdown of the prices of upstream raw materials.

August PPI rose 2.3% year -on -year

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, in August 2022, the national industrial producers' ex -factory prices (PPI) increased by 2.3%year -on -year and a decrease of 1.2%month -on -month. "Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that this is the first 20 months since January 2021, the first year -on -year increase in the CPI has exceeded PPI, which means that the "scissors difference" between the two has reversed again.

Among them, the price of production materials rose by 2.4%year -on -year, affecting PPI by about 1.87 percentage points, which is the main driving force for PPI to rise; the price of living materials rose by 1.6%, affecting PPI about 0.38 percentage points.

Dong Lijuan said that in August, affected by various factors such as the fluctuation transmission of commodity prices such as international crude oil and non -ferrous metals and the weak market demand in the domestic industry, the price trend of industrial products declined as a whole.

In the written interview with the Dean of the Institute of Incident, Zhang Aoping said in writing that from a written interview with "Daily Economic News", from the perspective of PPI, which represents the level of inflation, the PPI in August fell from the previous month, and the year -on -year increase fell sharply.PPI continues to decline from the previous month. It is mainly affected by factors such as supply -side international commodity price fluctuations, domestic coal and other industries such as the continuous display of stable prices, and the overall market demand for demand -side market demand.Regarding the future CPI trend, Zhao Wei analyzed the reporter of the Daily Economic News that the rise of CPI inflation in the second half of the year has basically become the consensus of the market. To this end, pay attention to the potential possibilities of inflation beyond expectations in the first half of next year.Next year, the core CPI rises or becomes one of the important variables for further lifting of the CPI center. The core driver may or from the "compensation" price increase from offline activities and the "compensation" price increase.

Daily Economic News

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