Since September, the market liquidity has remained reasonable and abundant. The industry is expected to remain stable this month.

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.09.13

13SEP

Our reporter Liu Qi has remained reasonable and abundant market liquidity since September. According to data from the National Banking Interbank Borrowing Center, as of September 9, the 10 -day average and the 5 -day average of the overnight Shibor (Shanghai Bank of China Interbank Demolition Rate) were 1.1945%and 1.1094%, all at a lower level. In addition, DR007 (7 -day pledge repurchase interest rates of bank market deposits) have always been under the current 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate (2%). From this week, the open market will have a reverse repurchase of 10 billion yuan. In addition, there will be 600 billion yuan in medium -term borrowing facilities (MLF) expiration, and the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as "central bank") will be sequel on September 15. It is worth mentioning that the MLF expired last month was 600 billion yuan, while the central bank conducted a shrinkage sequel with a scale of 400 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was reduced by 10 basis points to 2.75%. For the sequels of MLF this month, the viewers of interviewed analysis have different opinions. "Considering that the current fund supply side is relatively loose, the demand side is still weak, and the preliminary interest rate center is declining, the stable growth policy requirements are stacked. At present, the space policy is relatively limited in terms of total amount. Higher. "Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of Zhongliang Federation, told a reporter from the Securities Daily. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told the Securities Daily that from the recently announced financial data, M2 maintained a high level in August, and the market interest rate continued to run under policy interest rates, reflecting the current currency supply and market liquidity. Keep abundant, and it is expected that the MLF shrinkage is expected this month. The moderate shrinkage sequel can promote the market liquidity on the one hand reasonably, and on the other hand, it also helps to prevent the potential risks of excessive looseness. "Due to the steady growth of domestic policies, fiscal and monetary policies are positive, and the demand for real economy financing is in a stable restoration stage. It is expected that the sequel to be 400 billion to 500 billion yuan." Zhou Maohua said. From the perspective of MLF's operating interest rate, it has been lowered twice this year. In addition to the decrease of 10 basis points last month, from 2.95%to 2.85%in January this year. The aforementioned analysts believe that the MLF operating interest rate will remain stable this month. Pang Yan said that the current policy focus should continue to focus on the conduction chain from wide currency to wide credit to maintain the smooth and moderate growth of currency credit. It is expected that the MLF interest rate will remain stable in the short term. In order to activate the demand for physical loans and ensure the stability of market emotions and the stability of economic restoration, it should be more important to use the effectiveness of the reform of the loan market quotation interest rate reform and the guidance role, and establish a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates to further reduce the interest rate of real economic loans and enterprises Comprehensive financing costs. Zhou Maohua predicts that MLF interest rates will remain stable this month. From the perspective of financial data in August, the demand for the real economy's financing continued to improve, and the financing structure gradually optimized. Previously, the effect of helping enterprises to relieve the rescue and the continuity of stable growth, and the economic show was a steady recovery trend. In the process, staged hedging operations, not the interest rate cut cycle.