After Russia dumped the "King Fried", the European Union intervention!Can Europe carry this winter?

Sarah Drew, a retired old man who lives in Swansea, UK, finally made up his mind to install a expensive solar panel on the roof through bank loans.

After careful calculation, she found that loans and interests were lower than the cost of natural gas in this winter, which is a cost -effective expenditure.

The high natural gas bill also prompted Sarah to adjust her lifestyle. Now, she basically does not use natural gas stoves to cook, but instead uses a microwave oven. Heated foods with a large amount of weight at a time, and then packed into the refrigerator, so you can eat it for several days at a time, which greatly reduces the cost.

The Russian -Ukraine conflict has continued for more than half a year, and the energy dilemma of Europe has also intensified. The "indefinite" confession of the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline has caused the situation to suddenly nervous. Even the historical district of Chalottenburg in Berlin has lowered the lighting. Around the dim lights, it seems that it is "difficult this winter".

In order to avoid the soaring natural gas prices, the EU has "released big moves" to discuss energy market intervention measures. Affected by this, the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, which is the European natural gas benchmark, has fallen for three consecutive days.

Is the "breath" dilemma of Europe unlocked? Jack Sharples, a senior researcher at Oxford Energy Research Institute, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, "(The EU proposed) these measures are very complicated."

At the same time, under the situation of anxious natural gas supply, European carbon neutrality and targets seem to be at stake. In the opinion of Qin Yan, chief power and carbon analysts of Lufut Electricity and Carbon Analysts, and Researcher at Oxford Energy Research Institute, the current energy crisis has become the biggest obstacle to Europe's carbon reduction process.

Photo source: Photo Network-500123186

Surge

While Sarah actively adjusted his lifestyle to reduce energy spending, James Greenhalgh, who operated cafes and bars in Litz, UK, is working hard.

Unlike family users, the natural gas costs and electricity bills of merchants are not protected. From October, the gas costs and electricity bills of these two stores will rise from £ 1,500 to 10,000 pounds, which is higher than artificial expenditure.

Other merchants in Leeds are also experiencing a similar dilemma. In the end, it is a problem that they are facing every day when they are gritted to hold their teeth, or to save expenses, or to close the door directly.

What comforts the "Green Harsh" a little comfort is that on September 8, the new British Prime Minister Tellas announced the government's emergency energy plan. It is 6 months, but the details are not clear.

According to the plan, the family's annual energy expenditure limit is set at 2,500 pounds, a period of two years, which is 1,000 pounds lower than the original plan. In fact, although the total energy bills of British families are protected by the upper limit, the upper limit has risen again and again. Since October, this upper limit will be increased by 80%to £ 3549 per year, about three times a year ago.

A survey at the end of August shows that more than 20 % of the British adults intend to do not turn on heating throughout the winter this year. The British initiated a "non -payment" petition on the Internet. It is planned to refuse to pay the energy bill on the same day when the family energy price limit is raised on the same limit on October 1. At present, the petition has signed more than 180,000 people.

In the same month, the German Rental Association warned that German people or millions of people who could not pay heating fees in the future. The firewood that has long been eliminated has become a popular option for winter heating. In August, the number of Germans searching for "firewood" on Google surged, and domestic firewood inventory had been swept away.

What's more difficult is that Germany will also collect natural gas surcharges from October, and the annual natural gas costs of ordinary families will increase by 480 euros.

In order to fight against the high inflation of energy prices, the European Central Bank raised interest rate hikes 75 basis points on September 8th, a maximum of 1999.

Euro area inflation rate picture source: Eurostat

Will it "break the defense"?

Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the unstable natural gas supply situation has been "heart disease" in Europe.

Recently, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. announced that the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline will completely stop the gas transmission due to equipment failure until the failure is eliminated. For Europe, this is undoubtedly a "nightmare."

According to the analysis of "Daily Economic News" by mail, Sharps pointed out that in the four main pipelines of Russia's gas to Europe, the "Beixi-1" and "Amal-Europe" channels have stopped sending gas, leaving only Ukraine and and. Two lines of Turkey are maintained.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, in the first seven months of 2022, Russia's natural gas exported to the European Union and the United Kingdom through channels decreased by 40%compared to the same period in 2021, compared with the same period of the same period from 2017 to 2021 Nearly half.

Russia's main pipeline to European gas pipeline and 2021 qi transfusion picture Source: Statista

"The most likely situation this winter is that these two routes are still in accordance with the current horizontal gas, and other routes will be closed. However, in the case of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, we cannot rule out the possibility of disturbing through Ukraine's pipelines." Sharps said. He also said that the most active situation was that the European Union continued to increase storage, and worked hard to fill all the gas storage equipment by November. According to GIE of the European natural gas infrastructure operator industry organization, as of September 6, the EU's natural gas reserves have reached 82.52%, and 80%of the target has been completed in advance.

However, Charpus analyzed the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that a series of potential factors may "break the defense" in Europe's natural gas reserves, such as the winter weather is extremely cold, leading to the rise in natural gas demand; Raise, the liquefied natural gas supply with Europe; technical faults such as the other major natural gas transportation pipelines in Europe (output from Norway and Algeria).

Simon Tagliapietra, a senior researcher at Brugel, a European think tank, also believes that the reduction of natural gas demand is more important than natural gas storage and reduction of natural gas demand for this winter. However, the current 15%reduction of the EU is based on the voluntary of member states, and including a large number of exceptions to exemption, which has a serious reduction in reduction.

Data Intelligence Company's ICIS model shows that even if there are a small amount of Russian natural gas in the winter, and the weather does not appear abnormally cold, if the EU countries cannot reduce fuel use, European natural gas inventory will be consumed in March next year. One empty.

Emergency intervention

Driven by the supply of supply, the price of natural gas in Europe has also been singing all the way.

Russia announced the first trading day of the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline "indefinitely" (ie September 5) after the disconnection of the confession (ie September 5), the Dutch TTF natural gas in the European gas price was soaring by 30%in recent months. Touching above 280 euros/MW.

The fluctuation of natural gas prices has also lost control in the European power market. As the European electrical price benchmark, the electricity price delivered by Germany next year will exceed 1,000 euros/MWhm at the end of August. Data show that on September 6, Germany's electricity price will be reported to 536 euros/MWs next year, with an ultra -historical average of more than 10 times.

For example, the European natural gas and electricity markets that "off the Mustang" have brought greater pressure on Europe. In order to avoid the soaring natural gas prices, the EU has "released a big move."

On September 9, local time, the Energy Minister of EU member states gathered in Brucel to discuss the energy market intervention measures to spend this winter with the shortage of natural gas supply. Affected by this news, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures closed more than 6%on the day.

On September 13, the TTF natural gas futures in the Netherlands continued to fall, and the market once fell 8.3%to 184 euros/MWh. Touching a low point since one month, it fell by about 34%from the 5th high. Goldman Sachs even estimates that the natural gas benchmark price in the first quarter of Europe will fall to less than 100 euros per MWh, which will fall 50%compared to the current level.

TTF futures price in the past year trend. Source: Ying is wealth love

In the latest draft plan exposed by the media, the European Union proposed that various countries levied the excess profit of crude oil, natural gas, coal and refining plants.

At the same time, the European Union also plans to take electricity limit measures for the power supply provided by the non -natural gas power plant, peel off the natural gas power generation from the European power pricing system, and cut power consumption in the entire EU. Electricity. According to the latest news, the European Union plans to set up a price limit of 200 euros/Suma time for non -natural gas power generation.

The radical measures of "Russia's Natural Gas" supported by European leaders such as Feng Delin, President of the European Commission, and French President Macron did not appear in the current draft. Regarding this measure, Russian President Putin responded on September 7 that if the European Union set up the price limit, Russia would stop pushing Euqi.

In Charps, "(the EU proposed) these measures are very complicated." He explained to the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "For example, the price of natural gas power generation with other electricity is peeled off. It means that it is a challenge to build a "dual -track" power market to distribute cheaper non -natural gas power to market participants. "

In the research report sent to the Daily Economic News, Goldman Sachs stated that these unconventional intervention measures concentrated in the power market may be counterproductive, because the electricity price will stimulate the electricity consumption, but further improves the natural gas. need. Goldman Sachs believes that the government has repurchased natural gas from voluntary companies to increase reserves, which is a more secure approach.

Carbon neutral test

Because natural gas is regarded as a key "transition energy" from traditional energy to clean energy, under the shortage of supply, European energy transformation is also facing frustration. The carbon neutralization of the previously set up seems to be out of reach.

Lufute chief power and carbon analyst, Qin Yan, researcher at Oxford Energy Research Institute, analyzed in an interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News that for EU countries, the current energy crisis has become the face of the carbon reduction process in Europe. The biggest obstacle. "First of all, in order to ensure energy security restarting coal power and even fuel power plants, carbon emissions rose. The second is because the policy formulation is busy dealing with the energy crisis and confession, and the discussion of climate policy has progressed slowly." Qin Yan said. In addition, Qin Yan believes that in order to cope with the energy crisis, European countries use fiscal subsidies to subsidize residents and users to soaring energy expenditures. The rise of these expenditures and the risk of economic recession facing the EU will inevitably affect the investment of renewable energy in the past two years.

Coal is considered to be the "dirty" fossil energy source. European countries have abandoned it, but now they have eaten the "back grass". Restarting coal power generation will undoubtedly give a question mark on the previous coal reference commitments of European countries.

In early July, Germany announced that it will give up the goal of "nearly 100%renewable energy" in the power grid by 2035. At the same time, it is said that the carbon neutrality of the energy industry should be achieved after the elimination of coal -fired power generation. The next month, the mayor of Copenhagen, the Danish capital, announced that the city will temporarily abandon the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in 2025. Copenhagen is expected to become the world's first city to achieve carbon neutrality.

"Coal replacing natural gas will obviously have a negative impact on carbon dioxide reduction," Dr. Hans-Peter Friedrich, a member of the German House of German and former Federal Agreement of Germany, said in an interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News. When talking about Germany's carbon neutrality, he told reporters, "We still insist on the timetable for fully climate neutrality in 2045."

In addition to considering greenhouse gas such as carbon dioxide, the climate neutrality is also considering other effects such as radiation effects, which is a wider concept than purely calculating carbon dioxide carbon dioxide.

From the perspective of Germany alone, "because Germany's high dependence on Russia's natural gas and the requirements of infrastructure, Germany is more difficult to get rid of Russia's natural gas than coal or oil." Realize in 2024 (to Russia) is completely independent. But whether this can be realized and how much the price is to pay, it is not yet possible to make an exact prediction. "Dr. Friedrich hopes that the three nuclear power stations in Germany will continue to operate, To reduce coal use as much as possible.

Sharz told reporters that the current setbacks caused by the energy crisis are temporary and will not weaken the EU's emission reduction target. On the contrary, the sky -high price of fossil fuels once again highlights the importance of getting rid of imported fossil fuels through energy diversification, which not only helps achieve climate goals, but also improves European energy security.

Statistical data also proof of this statement. In European countries with a rapid promotion of carbon and targets and high renewable energy utilization rates, such as France, Norway, and Sweden, their electricity prices are minimized by the crisis; and Italy, with the most increased electricity prices, has a proportion of natural gas power generation up to 90 %.

But in the short term, natural gas is still indispensable as the transitional energy of European energy transformation.

Since Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Europe has proposed more than 10 imported pier projects of LNG. However, the construction of infrastructure requires time, and the current liquefied natural gas prices are also very high.

According to reports, the cost of liquefied natural gas from the United States is US $ 60 million/ship, but the transaction price sold in Europe is as high as US $ 275 million/ship. How to grab the shipping capacity is also testing Europe.

Daily Economic News

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