"Electric shock" Japan, can BYD take off the bridgehead ｜ Special topic in the sea

From 2020 to 2021, affected by the geographical and epidemic black swan, Chinese entrepreneurs going to sea undoubtedly undergoing unprecedented new changes. The hour hand has been dumped into 2022. What is their current situation? What experience and lessons are worth sharing? Is there still a chance to go to the future?

Zero -state LT specially launched the Observation column "Viscers Mirror", which records the new journey of Chinese companies going overseas from multiple dimensions. This article is the 19th of the series, focusing on BYD Japan's exit.

On August 24, Capital Tycoon Buffett for the first time reduced its holdings for more than ten years. BYD stocks were not reduced, which caused a lot of market debate. Whether it is market sales or capital heat, BYD has never been as "hot" as it is now.

From April this year, it was announced that it was officially suspended from all its fuel vehicles, completely transformed and electrified, and the next four consecutive months of monthly sales exceeded the 100,000 mark. At the same time, it has repeatedly surpassed Tesla, winning the global new energy vehicle for the first half of the year. Every step is very correct and firm, and BYD is in the limelight in the domestic market for a while.

In fact, as early as July 21, BYD held a press conference in Tokyo, announcing the official entering the Japanese passenger car market, and debuted by the three electric models of Yuan Plus, dolphins and seals. Among them, Yuan Plus is expected to be released in January 2023, and dolphins and seals are expected to be released in the mid -half of 2023, respectively.

The Japanese automobile market has always been considered a field that is difficult to overcome. Local brands represented by Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc. have long occupied an absolute market share of over 90 %. What is BYD's confidence to make this choice? Why choose this time to enter the Japanese market?

01

Go to the sea

BYD has never stopped

"Auto go to sea" is no stranger to Chinese car companies. Since the 1990s, Chinese car companies have begun to deploy overseas markets.

In terms of competitiveness, Chinese cars stay in "cost -effective" for a long time; in region, developing countries are still the main position. According to data from the Federation of Federation, in 2021, Chinese car companies exported new vehicles to overseas markets in 2015,000, but most of them were emerging markets such as Africa, South America and the Middle East. Export models were also concentrated in low -end positioning. In contrast, BYD is the only Chinese independent brand that has entered the European and American Japanese and Korean cars today. It not only occupies a place in the global pure electric market, but also has a cognitive degree of overseas markets, but also higher than other Chinese car brands.

As early as 2010, BYD founder Wang Chuanfu said: "The promotion of new energy vehicles should start with public transportation." As a result, the use of a buses to establish a foothold and then expand the passenger car business, and has become a sales strategy that BYD has always adopted in overseas markets.

In 2013, the BYD K9 pure electric bus passed one of the most strict certification systems for review, that is, the EU Vehicle Certification (WVTA Certification), marking that BYD Electric Buses took the "admission vouchers" and unlimited restrictions that entered EU countries. Free sales right. In July of that year, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, ordered 35 electric buses from BYD, becoming the largest pure electric bus order in Europe that year.

▲ Picture: BYD pure electric bus

In 2014, BYD Electric Bus K9 passed the rigorous Altoona test in the United States, obtained the TVM qualification, won the bid in the second long beach electric bus bidding, and received 60 orders. Since 2015 The largest or first batch of new energy passenger car orders in the Philippines and other countries; sweeping the North American market in 2016, BYD and Canada signed the first batch of 1 billion pure electric bus orders, and won the new energy bus order of the University of California in the same year; A pure electric bus order, after the order of 100 new energy buses in San Diego, became the first choice for the Latin American market.

BYD overseas markets have been smooth.

From 2014 to 2017, BYD ranked first in global sales of pure electric bus for four consecutive years, and once occupied more than 80%of the market share of pure electric buses in the United States and more than 50%of the British pure electric bus market share. With a good reputation established by electric bus, BYD gradually broke the ice in the field of passenger cars.

In 2013, Hong Kong's first batch of E6 pure electric taxi was put into operation. In 2015, BYD E6 landed in Bangkok and became the first new energy vehicle to enter Thailand. On March 7, 2016, BYD E6 successfully passed the Australian automotive design regulations ADRS (Australia Design Rules), becoming the first Chinese new energy vehicle company to pass the regulations. In February 2018, Tang EV was officially listed in Brazil and priced at 48,7590 Brazilian Laer (about RMB.6 million). On August 12, 2021, BYD's passenger car business officially landed in the Norwegian market. As of the end of 2021, BYD has successfully delivered the 1,000 Tang EV in Norway.

When the vehicle exports, BYD overseas automobile business has extended to solar energy, energy storage and rail transit. The production bases have also been established in the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, France, and Hungary. At present, BYD's new energy vehicle product footprint has spread to more than 70 countries and regions around 6 continents around the world, helping green transportation and travel of more than 400 cities.

But is the electric shock in Japan so smoothly as before?

02

Why now enter Japan

It is not clear that BYD is not a good time to enter Japan at this time.

First of all, the Japanese new energy vehicle market needs to be developed, especially the pure tram market. Japan is not only a strong country fuel vehicle, but also regarded as the "most closed in the world" automobile market. Toyota, Nissan, Honda and other local brands occupy more than 93%of Japan's absolute market share, and there are a large number of Japanese cars exported to the exports to the exports Other countries.

Contemporary and Ford car giants, like "halberds" in the Japanese market, the road to advanced exports of Chinese car brands has also stopped Japan for a long time. It was not until February 23, 2015 that five BYD pure electric buses K9 delivered to Kyoto, Japan, and successfully achieved the "zero" breakthrough. The market share of imported cars in Japan is less than 10%, which is mainly occupied by German cars, including luxury brands such as Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW.

American car brands and other European brands have almost no sense of presence in the Japanese market. Japanese car analysis Shikawa Yoshiko believes: "The Japanese automobile market structure will not change in the short term. New energy vehicles are the only opportunities for Chinese car companies to enter the Japanese market. Near blank. "

Data show that in 2021, Japanese electric vehicle sales were 45,000, accounting for only 1 % of the overall auto market. Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles are less than 20,000, accounting for 0.45 % of the total sales of the country in the country.

Secondly, Japanese car companies represented by Toyota have fallen behind in the field of pure electric vehicles. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, in the face of the international market competition of new energy vehicles, Japan accelerated the fields of hydrogen energy vehicles, hybrid vehicles and other fields, and introduced various support and restriction policies to promote the Japanese new energy vehicle industry and its policies Entering the stage of perfect, all Japanese car companies are progressing slowly in the field of pure electric vehicles.

In terms of electrifying strategies, the Japanese government is still more inclined to hybrid vehicles. According to statistics from the Japanese Automobile Dealer Association (JADA), in June this year, the sales volume of ordinary passenger cars in Japan was 16,9680 units. Among them, gasoline and diesel vehicles have a total of 84469 units, accounting for 49.8 %; hybrid vehicles are 78,472, accounting for 46.2 %; plug -in hybrid vehicles are 3306 units, an increase of 43 % year -on -year, accounting for 2 %; pure electric electricity; The car was 3379, an increase of 156 % year -on -year, accounting for 2 %.

It can be seen that although the sales of Japanese plug -in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles have increased significantly year -on -year in recent years, the penetration rate is still poor. The entire Japanese car market is still the "two points in the world" of fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles.

As a representative of Japanese car companies, Toyota Zhangnan, who has come back to Taste, also puts on a big posture. He said at the electric vehicle strategy press conference that from the 9 years from 2022 to 2030, Toyota Motor invested a total of 8 trillion yen for electric transformation, of which 4 trillion yen was used for pure electric models (BEV) 4 trillion yen for hybrid models (HEV), plug -in hybrid models (PHEV), hydrogen fuel models (FCEV). In terms of battery, Toyota Motor plans to invest 2 trillion yen to develop lithium batteries, and by 2030, it will achieve 280GWh production capacity. And plans to turn Lexus into a pure electric brand, and by 2030, 1 million pure electric vehicles will be sold.

However, the ideal is very happy, but the reality is very skinny. Toyota BZ4X, which was originally planned to be listed in China in June, was "urgently canceled." At the same time, Toyota announced the recall of BZ4X in multiple overseas markets, because the wheel bolts that installed tires were likely to loosen, causing the tire to fall off. Therefore, how many effects of Toyota Zhangnan's words can be observed, but under the premise of losing the opportunity, they also want to "turn" and catch up with China and the United States in the field of pure electricity. It can be imagined.

For BYD, it is the best time to enter the Japanese market.

If you can make a world in the Japanese market, not only the sales increase, but also the more important thing is to win Japan's very symbolic bridgehead, and the resistance to other areas will be greatly reduced. At the same time, it also proves BYD's true strength in the field of pure electric.

03

Who will lead the battle to attack the sea

Because BYD has 70%of the Japanese electric bus market, BYD's strategy to enter Japan this time still uses bus to establish a foothold and then expand the passenger car business model. First to b, then to C, conduct early consumer education through new energy bus, and accumulate reputation. Through detailed insight into the needs of local consumers, it finally creates products that meet the Japanese market.

Because the Asia -Pacific region has always been led by Japanese cars, Wang Chuanfu pointed Liu Xueliang as the president of BYD Japan Branch. Liu Xueliang graduated from Tokyo International University in 1997 and obtained a bachelor's degree in international economic and trade. He joined BYD in 2004 and served as the general representative of BYD in Japan. He is currently the general manager of BYD Asia Pacific Division, and the president of BYD Japan Branch, responsible for operating and managing the daily business of BYD Asia Pacific and formulating a long -term development strategy.

▲ Picture: Liu Xueliang, general manager of BYDA Pacific Business Department

Liu Xueliang is the pioneer of business development in BYD Asia Pacific. He has led the team to establish branches in Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, South Korea, India and other countries to develop markets and establish production bases to promote BYD's outstanding results in many markets in the Asia -Pacific region and Help BYD became the first Chinese car brand to successfully enter the Japanese market. The partner with Liu Xueliang is Houshu, the Tomo Temple from Japan. He will serve as the chairman and general manager and be responsible for the sales business. Dongfu Temple Houshu was born in 1958 and entered Mitsubishi Motor Industry in 1981 to be responsible for Japan and overseas business. In 2011, Volkswagen Japan was responsible for sales network development. In 2016, he became the president of Volkswagen Japan's sales company and was responsible for imported car business. In March 2021, BYD Japanese president Liu Xueliang interviewed himself, and officially joined the Japanese market business in August.

In addition to seeing the rich personal experience of the thick tree in Fuji in the Middle East, his contacts in local sales channels are also very popular with Liu Xueliang.

In an interview with Bloomberg, he said: "(Japan), as the third largest market in the world, has a sense of existence in the automotive field. Over time, electrification will continue to deepen in various forms." After joining BYD, after joining BYD, it will He first proposed a similar Lightweight network sales model similar to Tesla and modern: as long as it costs 150,000 yen to book, the company will deliver the goods to the door.

04

Pry open the first step in Japan's door

Localization

According to different politics, economy, and consumers in different regions, BYD has decentralized the person in charge of various regions to choose the autonomy. According to reports, the models appeared this time were Yuan Plus, dolphins and seals. Among them, Yuan Plus is expected to be released in January 2023, and dolphins and seals are expected to be released in the mid -half of 2023, respectively.

The reason for choosing these three is BYD's in -depth research on the Japanese market and its localization strategy.

Unlike the Chinese market prefers large cars, the Japanese market micro -cars (light automatic cars) are very popular. Kawano Yoshiko once said that in the entire automotive market, micro -cars occupy about 37%of the market share. Among them, Honda N-BOX is the best-selling model, and K-CAR EV Sakura is almost the first.

The common point of these two cars is:

The first is fuel saving. The N-BOX uses the Honda S07B 0.66 liter 3-cylinder engine with a CVT gearbox. The official two-wheel drive comprehensive fuel consumption is 3.7 liters per 100 kilometers. The four-wheel drive comprehensive fuel consumption is 3.9 liters (the four-wheel drive is basically prepared for the Hokkaido region).

▲ Figure: Honda N-BOX

The second is that the space is large. Honda arranges the four wheels of the N-BOX as much as possible in the four corners of the car, so that the car length of less than 3.4 meters has a wheelbase of more than 2.5 meters. At the height of nearly 1.8 meters, the designer moved the fuel tank to the first row of seats, so that the height of its car reached 1.4 meters, and eventually created almost a miraculous traveler space.

The third is cheap. Taking the Honda N-BOX as an example, the price range of 119.8 to 1.8 million yen (about 7.5 to 113,000 yuan) has a certain overlap with its own flying price range, but compared to the low medium to medium and low in the same price, Fit, but can buy the mid-to-high-end N-BOX, while bringing lower taxes and maintenance costs in the later period. The K-CAR EV Sakura just launched by Nissan is as high as 240 to 3 million yen before subsidy.

Looking at BYD's three cars, Yuan Plus and dolphins are the main compact, large space, and at the same time, there is enough low price, the target is N-BOX. The seal is the high -end Tesla Model 3 and "Lingfeng" in the Japanese market. Class fuel vehicles are nearly doubled.

05

Mad short board

Di Wang continues to expand capacity

The surge in sales has caused BYD's state of short supply this year. Therefore, in order to make up for the "ammunition" of going to sea, BYD's urgent prince is first to expand capacity.

In June of this year, Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting: "At present, BYD has more than 500,000 units in hand, and the delivery cycle will take 5 to 6 months." According to the company's performance meeting, the capacity of dolphins and Yuan PLUS is only 1/3 of the monthly sales capacity of 1/3 of the monthly sales capacity. The DM-I hybrid delivery delay in the second half of last year also caused 400,000 orders to wait for delivery.

According to 36 氪, BYD's 10 major vehicle production bases in China are almost expanding production capacity. The Changsha and Changzhou bases produced by the marine biological series have production planning plans. Among them, the new planning capacity of the Changsha base is 300,000 units, and the original production capacity of 300,000 units, the planning capacity has reached the scale of 600,000 units a year. The first and second phases of the Changzhou base are 200,000 vehicles per year. The second phase is expected to be put into production in the second quarter of next year. After the production, the annual planning capacity can reach 400,000 vehicles.

Jinan, Hefei, Zhengzhou and Shenshan also have new capacity, but the latest planning time for production also gives the third quarter of next year, which shows that the demand is urgent. In order to solve the problem of overseas transportation, BYD plans to buy a 6-8 search 7700 CEU liquefied natural gas dual -fuel vehicle transport ships. It is expected to be delivered one after another in 2025.

▲ Figure: BYD Manufacturing Factory

Secondly, we must also add intelligent shortcomings. Earlier, BYD's focus is mainly on new energy technology, and there are not many involved in the field of automatic assistance and intelligent driving. Wang Chuanfu once said at the shareholders' meeting, "The first half of the new energy vehicle was electrified, and the second half was intelligent." Although the BYD Research Institute currently has a thousand people, the R & D results are more of the vehicle system Dilink. To this end, BYD plans to independently develop smart driving chips and start recruiting BSP technology teams. It is expected that the film can be sliced ​​as soon as the end of the year. Finally, the battery supply. In May this year, BYD issued an announcement saying that it intends to spend 4 billion yuan to purchase lithium products from Shengxin Lithium. Immediately afterwards, 50 million yuan was invested in the Fudi Battery Company of Nanning Puzhou; in August, BYD announced that it would invest 28.5 billion yuan in Yichun to build an annual output of 30GWH power batteries and an annual output of 100,000 tons of battery -grade lithium carbonate production base projects.

Perhaps it was not insurance, and BYD found 6 lithium mines in Africa and reached the intention of acquisition. According to the calculation of Soochow Securities, if all mining, these mines can meet the production of 27.78 million 60 -degree pure trams, which means that BYD will not need to worry about lithium shortage in the next ten years.

In the future, as the domestic automobile market gradually enters the stage of stock game, the global automobile industry has also reached the eve of the industry's shuffling. More and more domestic car companies will not only accelerate the internal rolls, but also aiming at a wider overseas market, but how many peaches can be picked up, they are dependent on their own.

Author ｜ Xu Xun

Edit ｜ Yu Yan

Operation ｜ Chen Jiahui

Produced ｜ Zero -state LT (ID: lingtai_lt)

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