Leaving, "Break 7" experts on the shore: Don't be too afraid

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 16th. Following the offshore RMB, on the morning of September 16, the exchange rate of the shore was also "broken 7" after more than two years.

Screenshot source: Wind

As of press time, 372 basis points were reported to the shore RMB against the US dollar at 7.0147; the offshore RMB was reported to the US dollar at 7.0257, down 123 basis points. On September 16, the RMB degraded 204 basis points against the US dollar to 6.9305.

The US dollar index rose slightly on the 15th local time. As of the end of the foreign exchange market in New York, the US dollar index of the US dollar's six major currencies rose 0.07%to 109.7400.

Zhongxin Jingwei noticed that the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar began to decline sharply from August 15th, and the 6.94 mark fell on September 5th. In this context, the central bank announced on September 5 that from September 15, 2022, it was reduced to reduce the decrease. The foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 2 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio is reduced from 8%to 6%.

How to view the RMB exchange rate "Break 7"?

Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that even if the RMB against the US dollar exceeds 7.0 in the short term, there is no need to worry about the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar. Once the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate is facing the pressure of continuous depreciation, the central bank of China should tolerate the moderate depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate and enhance the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Prospective expected guidance and other means to maintain the stability of the local currency exchange rate.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that the offshore exchange rate of the RMB "broke 7" again after a lapse of two years, mainly due to the Federal Reserve ’s influence of accelerating the tightening of monetary policy in order to suppress high inflation. Most of the non -US dollar currency, including RMB, has depreciated to varying degrees. Compared with the currencies of major developed economies such as British pounds, euro, and yen, the depreciation of the RMB is relatively small, and the RMB exchange rate index is generally stable.

Wen Bin pointed out that from the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter is expected to rise significantly compared with the second quarter. The level of inflation is mild and controllable, and the international revenue and expenditure conditions are good. Especially for regular projects and direct investment basic projects such as income and expenditure Maintaining a high surplus has laid the foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, and there is no basis for the renminbi.

Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that China's economic fundamentals are the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, because the domestic market is relatively large and the industrial category is relatively complete. The toughness in the global industrial chain supply chain not only has not declined, but has risen.

When it comes to the impact of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, CITIC Securities Joint Chief Economist clearly said that in the short term, the impact of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has limited impact, which may have some disturbance on the emotions of the capital market. However, for the real economy, the appropriate depreciation of the exchange rate also helps stimulate the growth rate of exports, which is good for manufacturing.

Wang Yongli, general manager of China International Futures Co., Ltd., wrote a few days ago that from the perspective of expanding the growth of foreign demand and maintaining a certain level of foreign trade, it is necessary for the current moderate depreciation of the RMB. fluctuation. It is necessary to face up to the current pressure of the renminbi, and necessary measures can be taken to suppress its excessive depreciation and prevent the occurrence of out of control. It is not necessary to "break 7" against the US dollar to "break 7". (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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