Scripture headlines | Core executives respond to reducing holdings, Fosun's three concerns to be solved

Economic Observer reporter Cai Yuekun Huang Yifan Wang Yajie "Just ended a few months of overseas travel schedule. Fortunately, he returned to Shanghai before the typhoon 'plum blossoms'. : 12, Guo Guangchang, head of Fosun Group, who has not been published on Weibo for a long time, updated a latest developments.

Recently, frequent reduction of holdings and selling the "Fosun", which holds the stock and its assets, is in the storm of debt problems. Fosun International (0656.HK), Fosun Pharmaceutical (600196.SH, 2196.HK), and Yuyuan (600655.SH) under the "Fosun". New lows during the year.

On the day of September 13, the market focused on the Beijing Municipal Management Enterprise to receive a notice from the Beijing State -owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to sort out the cooperation with Fosun Group (not limited to holding stocks, equity investment, funds lending, engineering contracting, guarantee, guarantee, guarantee, guarantee, guarantee, guarantee. Matters and trade cooperation) and judge the risk of related cooperation. In the secondary market, the stock price of a number of listed companies under the "Fosun" and the price of the corresponding bonds fell, and investors are confident.

A reporter from the Economic Observer contacted Guo Guangchang, head of Fosun Group. Guo Guangchang WeChat replied to reporters that he was just back to Shanghai and is being isolated, and this is the daily information collection of the Beijing State -owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission without targeted. When the reporter asked about the reduction of Fosun Pharmaceutical a few days ago, the reason for the previous gold emblem wine and Hainan mining industry was to return the funds to the capital and increase liquidity. It was still purely only from the perspective of financial investment returns. "Don't (this) listen to rumors."

On the morning of September 14, Fosun International official website disclosed that the party committee secretary and vice president of Fosun International Zhu Wenkui visited the Beijing State -owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in Beijing. The two sides discussed the future strengthening cooperation and promoting the project in Beijing.

此外，针对彭博社报道的“中国监管部门要求银行和部分国企摸底与复星系企业往来敞口”一事，复星国际执行总裁、CFO龚平9月14日上午向经济观察报记者表示，上述报道The information is not true. "It is purely a virtuality." Gong Ping said that Fosun has verified from regulatory agencies through multiple channels. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has not asked commercial banks to find Fosun's financial opening and cooperate with Fosun. I have never received relevant notices.

Founded in 1992, Fosun, in 2022 it was "the year of standing." Fosun has created four major business segments: healthy, happy, rich, and intelligent, covering the business layout of over 30 countries and regions.

Since the beginning of this year, the situation of the 100 billion -volume Finjun system densely disposed of assets has shown concerns about its business operations, overall liabilities, and Moody's reduction in rating. The core concern of investors.

Stock price plunge

According to the official website of Fosun Group, the total revenue in 2021 was RMB 16.129 billion, and the total assets were RMB 806.4 billion. The 589th in the 2022 Forbes Global Listed Companies, MSCIESG rating was AA. The "Fosun" is actually controlled by Guo Guangchang, a natural person, and has more equity levels and involves overseas subjects. The core operating subject of domestic operations Fosun International, Fosun Hi -Tech Fosun Pharmaceutical, Yuyuan Co., Ltd. Non -listed companies such as Land Group and Nanda Union are operating entities in various sectors.

From the perspective of the secondary market performance, under the actions such as the "Fosun" densely reduced holdings of listed companies and the sale of assets, many of its companies have continued to have fallen in stock price declines for several consecutive days.

From September 2nd to September 8th, Fosun International's stock price fell for 5 consecutive trading days, and it rose on September 9. After the Mid -Autumn Festival, on September 13 and 14, its stock price fell again, a sharp fall of 4.11 respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, and fell 4.11 respectively by 4.11, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, down 4.11 respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, down 4.11, respectively. %, 6.94%. After the above -mentioned Fosun management responded to the market concerns, on September 15, Fosun International's stock price rose by 9.65%; September 16th turned to a 2.8%fall.

From September 2nd to September 13th, the stock price of Fosun Pharmaceutical A shares fell more than 15%. On September 14, 15, and 16, Fosun's pharmaceutical stock prices fell 1.97%, 2.13%, and 2.63%, respectively. As of the close of September 16, the stock price remained at 32.17 yuan, with a total market value of 85.9 billion yuan.

On September 7, the stock price of Yuyuan Co., Ltd. fell 3.11%, and September 13, 14, 15, and 16 fell 0.9%, 2.72%, 0.53%, and 3.74%, respectively. In response to the reasons for the decline in the stock price, the relevant person in the Yuyuan Securities Department said on September 13 that the company's current operation is normal.

In addition, in June 2022, Moody's International, one of the three international rating agencies, included the BA3 family rating of Fosun International on the list of lowering observations. Affected by negative rating operations, the company's US dollar bond prices were greatly adjusted.

In late June, the prices of "Fosun International 5.95%N20230129", which will expire in January 2023, will fall sharply.

In response, Gong Ping responded, "Moody's scoring card according to his standard financial and credit indicators, in the quantitative dimension, the scoring of Fosun International is BA2, but because its analysts have a macroeconomic and capital market environment for China's analysts Very pessimistic, so from a qualitative perspective of subjective judgment, Fosun International's rating to B1. "650 billion debt hanging

The market caused by a series of events caused by a series of events such as reducing holdings and Moody's relegation. The core of the Group is the financial situation of the group.

Moody's in June behind Fosun International's "rating action" mainly stemmed from Moody's concerns about Fosun International's liquidity.

Moody's senior vice president Cai Hui said that the Fosun rating is included in the list of observation, reflecting Moody's concerns about the hedging of the disconnection of investors in the public bond market, which will cause Fosun's intense liquidity to be compressed again. It is expected to be in the future. By 12 months, the company's domestic and overseas debt has expired a large scale, and the domestic real estate industry will also increase the risk of credit spread and increase the liquidity pressure of Fosun's core real estate subsidiaries.

According to the statistics of CICC's research report at the end of June, as of June 23, 2022, there were 53 durable bonds in the 6 domestic bond issuances, with a total balance of 52.85 billion yuan, of which 21 were expired within one year, a total of 197.3, a total of 197.3. 100 million yuan.

The main body of Fosun's bonds abroad is mainly Fosun International. It is a wholly -owned shareholder of Fosun Hi -Tech. At present, 7 USD dollar bonds and balances have a total of 3.83 billion U.S. dollars. Issuing the guarantee structure.

In addition, according to the data of Fosun International's semi -annual report in 2022, as of June 30, 2022, Fosun International's liquidity assets were 378.78 billion yuan, and non -liquid assets were 470.90 billion yuan, totaling 849.68 billion yuan; the total liabilities of 375.40 billion yuan were 375.40 billion yuan The total non -liabilities were 275.76 billion yuan, totaling 6511.6 billion yuan. The asset -liability ratio is 76.6%.

Among them, under the liabilities, the interest calculation bank loans and other borrowings reached 123.69 billion yuan, an increase of 30%year -on -year. In addition, according to the data disclosure of the medium -term report of Fosun Hi -Tech Corporation, as of the end of 2021, Fosun International's ownership was restricted by assets (pledged). The book amount was RMB 88.857 billion.

Based on this, some analysts believe that Fosun Group is undergoing more than 600 billion debt and pressure brought by the above -mentioned pressure.

Gong Ping told reporters, "The total debt reflected in the report of Fosun's listed main body is the debt of all the groups (Yuyuan, Fosun Pharmaceutical, Portuguese insurance, etc.), including all the groups. , The debt cannot be borne by the group. "

He said, "So the so -called more than 600 billion Fosun's debt is a statement of a concept of stealing. The number of 650 billion yuan is all the debt of the Fosun International consolidated statement. Because the essence of insurance business is underwriting and the debt ratio is high, the merging statement caliber leads to high total debt. However, the debt of financial institutions and the traditional debt of the enterprise are not the same concept. Fosun International's real corporate debt is actually only 260 billion yuan . Further disassembling, the 260 billion debt also included the debt of its subsidiaries such as Yuyuan and Fosun Pharmaceuticals; and for these debts, Fosun International is not liable for liability. The liabilities are only 100 billion yuan. The corresponding total asset is 270 billion yuan. "

Judging from the current leverage ratio and debt costs of Fosun International, the two data have performed smoothly in the past six years.

Judging from the materials disclosed by the Fosun Group's semi -annual report, the total of 1,17.65 billion yuan in the three cash, bank balance and regular deposits of Fosun Group. According to the leveraged ratio obtained from the interest calculation debt/total capital, in the first half of 2021 and 2022, the company's leverage ratio was 53.6%, 50.7%, 52.4%, 53.7%, 53.5%, 54.3%, 53.8%, 53.8%. , 56.8%. In addition, the average debt cost of the above time period was 5.0%, 4.5%, 4.7%, 5.0%, 5.1%, 4.8%, 4.6%, and 4.5%.

Open the "Selling Sale" mode

In addition to debt issues, the recent densely reduced holdings of the Fosun Group's stock assets of its listed companies is also another core focus of the market. The market concerns, whether reducing holdings means that Fosun Group is shrinking its own physical quantity.

On September 9, the announcement disclosed by the Insurance Association showed that the "Fosun" decided to largely reduce its shareholding of Yongan Insurance, from a cumulative shares of 40.68%to 14.68%; on September 6, Fosun Tourism Culture (1992.HK) also announced that its controlling shareholder Fosun International will sell the 28 million shares of Fosun Ruwen Co., Ltd. to independent third parties after receiving the market at a price of HK $ 8.57/share on September 5th. It

On September 2nd, Fosun Pharmaceutical Announcement, the controlling shareholder Fosun Hi -Tech plans to reduce its holdings of not more than 80.897 million A shares, accounting for 3%of the company's total share capital, and the closing price of 40.21 yuan per share on September 2nd. Fan reduced holdings can be cash out about 3.2 billion yuan; on September 3, Yuyuan shares issued an announcement saying that 13%of the gold emblem wine plans to be sold, and the total transaction price is expected to be 1.937 billion yuan. The control of the wine. In addition, Fosun Group also reduced its equity of listed companies such as Hainan Mining (601969.SH), Zhongshan Public (000685.SZ), Taihe Technology (300801.SZ), and Qingdao Beer (600600.SH).

According to incomplete statistics, since 2022, the "Fosun" has or intended to reduce the cash -out scale of its company's shares or more than 10 billion yuan.

Prior to 2022, "buying and buying" was the development of the Fosun. According to the statistics of DataGoo (DataGoo), reviewing Fosun's investment trajectory in the past ten years, since 2012, Fosun's investment momentum has continued to rise. According to the statistics of the times, Fosun has invested 104 times in 2016. Compared with 2012 in 2012, compared with 2012 , Increased by 593.3%. In 2019 and 2020, Fosun's investment has slowed slightly, and in 2021, Fu Xing once again accelerated its investment, and the number of investment rebounded. As of August 18, 2022, Fosun has invested 51 times.

In contrast, since 2022, the Fosun has opened a "selling" model. Gong Ping said that Fosun has recently reduced its holdings to further enhance rating, consolidate liquidity security mats, and enhance the ability to span the economic cycle. This is also a normal continuation of the financial strategy in recent years.

Gong Ping added that "dynamic combing and optimizing the asset portfolio is the persistent work of Fosun, not just to cope with the current market environment. The attention of attention has led to one -sided interpretation of individual asset disposal behaviors, and ignored the major principles of the group's asset optimization, that is, long -term dynamic optimization. "

"In fact, in addition to the solution of the competition in the same industry, some external investment made by Fosun has made the company get better. It is normal for the environment and the company's own firm operation to recover some cash. "Some market analysts observed that" Fosun is currently not blindly reduced its contraction. In terms of industries, including the Fuyou Road Project of Yuyuan, the resort plan for the next year, and the Fosun Pharmaceuticals won the exclusive commercialization of Azf's exclusive commercialization Cooperation is a series of industries being promoted. "

Regarding the control of the gold emblem wine control, a person close to Yuyuan shares said that after having a gift, because the two assets were also strong incense -type liquor, when the two businesses were developed, due to the issue of competition in the industry, Yuyuanyuan's competition issues, Yuyuanyuan The shares have a lot of constraints during processing. In terms of finance, Yuyuan's shares sold some of the equity of the gold emblem wine, counting the remaining 127 million shares, and the Fosun's account was more than 3 billion yuan.

Some opinions also believe that Fosun's recent reduction of holdings is the retreat operation at the strategic level during the cycle.

At the mid -term performance meeting in 2022, Gong Ping had publicly settled: "Facing the violent fluctuations in the capital market, we still adhere to the established financial strategy, take rating management as the starting point, sink the group's rating management financial strategy to the core subsidiary, planning the planning, planning From 2022 to 2025, the debt has been stabilized and orderly, leaving the debt cycle, and at the same time improve the cash dividend of subsidiaries, control the fixed cost of the headquarters, thereby steadily optimizing the group's credit indicators. "

Profit pressure in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2022, the net profit of Fosun International declined.

On August 31, Fosun International released the semi -annual report data pointed out that in the first half of 2022, it achieved operating income of 82.89 billion yuan, an increase of 17.7%year -on -year; net profit attributable to mothers was 2.70 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 33.6%.

From the perspective of business, according to the statistics of Anxin Securities, Fosun pharmaceutical revenue reached 2.128 billion yuan, the main source of revenue growth of product sales contributions, new and new product revenue accounted for more than 25%of pharmaceutical business income; The loss of more than one billion yuan has led to a large decline in the profit of the sector.

In addition, in the happy sector, overseas business recovers, and losses have narrowed significantly. In the first half of 2022, the company's happy sector realized revenue of 320.07 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the mother-in-law of 060 million yuan (the same period last year was -123 billion yuan). Among them, Fosun's revenue achieved revenue by 131%year -on -year to 6.42 billion yuan, and the loss has been greatly reduced from 2.0 billion yuan in the same period last year to 2 billion yuan. The overseas business of travel is strong.

Anxin Securities analysis, the impact of the epidemic, the fluctuation of the capital market, and the industry's prosperity affect the performance of some sectors, and the net profit of health, wealth, and intellectual manufacturing has declined to a certain extent.

In addition, the main reason for the company's profit pressure, Guotai Junan Research News said that it was mainly due to the rising and rising prices of raw materials in the global capital market. Its health, richness, and intellectual manufacturing sectors have been fully under pressure to drag the overall performance of the group in mid-2022. From the perspective of the section, the net profit attributable to the mother is -76.4%, -39.4%, and -36.1%year-on-year. Although the sales of Fosun Pharmaceutical products in the health sector have grown strongly, the fair value of financial assets such as BNTX shares held by its ownership has rebounded sharply, leading to a loss of net profit. It has also been severely dragged down by the fair value of financial assets including stocks; Nanda Steel shares under the smart manufacturing sector were affected by the increase in raw material prices, and profits also decreased year -on -year. Regarding the forecast of future performance, Guotai Junan said that with the company's happy sector consumption and cultural tourism business continued to recover, the negative growth of its annual profit growth is expected to narrow sharply. In the first half of the year, with the impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic on overseas markets, the overseas consumers gradually resumed normal tourism consumption activities. Fosun's overseas business has strongly recovered, and the overall section has reduced losses by 95.1%year -on -year.

Guotai Junan predicts that in the second half of the year, Fosun International Overseas Business is expected to fully restore the state before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia. At the same time, with the gradual optimization of domestic epidemic prevention policies, the domestic consumption recovery will also help the profitability of the sector. The happy sector is expected to achieve positive growth of profits year -on -year in 2022, which will help the group's profitable growth rate narrowing. In addition, if the performance of the capital market recovers, the fair value of financial assets is also expected to boost the company's performance.

Under the changes in global economy, what is the strategic direction of Fosun, the "globalization" Fosun?

In 2010, Fosun proposed a core strategy of globalization- "China Power Grassing Global Resources". At the performance conference in March 2022, Guo Guangchang said that in recent years, Fosun Group has improved the globalization strategy and regards the "China-Global two-way driver" as its operating goal. In the context of China's industrial upgrading, Fosun Group step by step gradually progress. , To export products and services to the world, especially for emerging markets such as Africa and India, the layout is added.

At the first half of the performance conference on August 31, 2022, Guo Guangchang said that globalization will become the whole, increase the depth of the industry and absorb the breadth of talents. Empower, and upgrade and develop at high speed.

On September 13th, he said on Weibo: "I always believe that globalization is the common interest of all mankind, and Fosun's competitiveness lies in the global vision and ability. Chinese enterprises, China is always the most important base for Fosun. Whether overseas or isolation, I always think about domestic business. In the future, I hope that Fosun can cultivate China while achieving mutual mutual mutualization of the global ecology. Empowerment and high -speed growth. "

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