Ye Shuhuai, chief analyst of Oriental Securities Wine Beverages: Sauce wine adjustment is nearly reasonable. The inflection point depends on the epidemic, real estate chain and economic recovery.

Every reporter: Zhu Wanping

In 2022, three -quarters have passed. In the context of global uncertainties such as inflation, energy increases, and repeated crown epidemics, in the context of increasing the number of global uncertainties, all walks of life are affected by varying degrees. The liquor industry, especially the sauce industry, also No exception.

In the future, what should white wine companies, especially the sauce company? How should companies face the predicament to improve? When will this round of adjustment in the sauce industry usher in reversal and what new characteristics of liquor consumption in the current environment?

On September 19th, it was guided by the China Listed Companies Association and Chengdu Media Group, hosted by the Daily Economic News, and was officially held by the 2022 7th China Wine Capital Forum with the theme of the "Vijin Bureau". At the meeting, Ye Shuhuai, chief analyst of Oriental Securities Wine Beverage, discussed and shared these issues, hoping to bring some inspiration and thinking to the outside world.

This round of sauce adjustment has entered a reasonable range

NBD: In recent years, the sauce boom has swept the entire wine circle. With the gradual standardization of the industry, recently, the sauce industry has entered a period of adjustment and returned to rationality. In your opinion, what stage does the sauce industry currently be in?

Ye Shuhuai: In the past two years, the expansion of sauce wine has slowed down, especially after the third quarter of last year, the volume and price of the entire sauce wine appeared in some consolidation. Capital blessing is weakened, and the cycle of the plus inventory has also entered the exfoliating stage. In our opinion, this is an effective release of industrial risks.

Since the recovery of the liquor industry at the end of 2016, the prices of the mainstream products of the entire sauce have actually increased several times, but the actual opening rate has actually declined. There is also a hidden worry behind the price of sauce wine, that is, the increase in speculation.

From 2021 to the current period of sauce wine, many emerging sauce companies with high -speed development have begun to pay attention to the quality behind growth. In the past, the high growth of sauce wine brought exchange increase in investment in investment in the industry's prosperity. For example, recruiting a batch of commercial inventory, and promised to make high channel profits, which has caused the previous dealers' inventory and social inventory to accumulate.

After this round of supervision, the entire investment demand has begun to transfer to real consumption needs. Therefore, it is natural to need to settle the real bottle opening consumption now, and the slowdown in development is a good thing. This can make the supply and demand tighten and balance, which will make this round of industrial cycle longer and the entire volatility will be reduced.

Under the prevention and control of the epidemic in the past two years, many banquets have been lacking, so the speed reduction is actually a major environmental decision, not a matter of business model. Therefore, as far as the current stage is concerned, we believe that we are currently in a stage of risk release. The idea of ​​dealers can make profits by relying on stocking, and real consumption attributes come out. The bottle opening rate sold now is slowly rising. This can also be fully reflected from the bottle scanning system of various wine companies, and the health of the industry is going up.

Why do we emphasize the improvement of industry health? Mainly, the product expansion and rapid price increase of the previous years have actually overdraw some consumer attributes. These make the payment return in front of the report, the report runs in front of the sales, and causes the channels of goods, more advertisements, and the quickly out of the past. This channel+capital thrust play has begun to return to the brand when subsequent supervision is strengthened. After the inventory and price adjustment adjustment, it has now become reasonable and releases some risks.

The inflection point of the sauce industry depends on the economic environment

NBD: Is this round of industry adjustment over this round of sauce?

Ye Shuhuai: The adjustment of the sauce is actually long enough. We observed that during the peak season, the inventory and price of core varieties have now been adjusted to a relatively normal level, and the valuation has also entered a very cost -effective stage.

We ran down in Henan and Shandong, and found that the backlog of sauce wine inventory has now dropped a lot. However, this reversal needs to see the environment, including like epidemic prevention and control, real estate chain, and subsequent economic inflection points, which may form some strong catalysts.

For high -quality sauce products and brands, the business model is still very good. In the long run, the probability will enter a range of steady -state expansion, and the market share of head sauce wine brands will continue to expand. The sauce is actually inseparable from the major industrial cycle. The real turning point lies in the environment. We will pay close attention to the situation of epidemic, real estate chain, and economic inflection point.

The sauce is still a good business capital will not be absent

NBD: In the past two years, capital has continued to enter Moutai Town, and many listed companies have also invested in sauce. From the perspective of capital or the attitude of capital to sauce, do you think this has changed a large change?

Ye Shuhuai: In the past two years, whether it is the cycle change of the industry itself or the strengthening of the regulatory level, in fact, to a certain extent, the capital boom of the sauce industry has been cooled. Let's analyze this. In fact, the cycle change of the sauce industry itself has declined. The valuation of the secondary market is to match the growth rate. The industrial end is more considered from a relatively long -term perspective. Therefore, during the entire process, the expected price expectations were not performed, which caused the price to not match.

On the other hand, from the perspective of supervision, there are relatively many issues considering, including environmental protection, taxation and historical problems, etc. These all need to be considered. In the secondary market, you can see the progress of the listing of wine companies, including the possible asset reorganization of some listed wine companies, and now they are cautious. At present, capital's attitude towards sauce companies and even the entire consumer industry has tended to be rational. Liquor is an industry with high brand barriers, and the industry leaders have participated a lot of capital. In recent years, more brands of capital chasing from small and medium -sized brands or small sauce companies have tried to promote revenue expansion through short -term large amounts of capital investment. This way of playing in the industry continues to rise, such as 2018 ~ 2020 is feasible. But now, it may become more and more difficult, because the advantages of the head of the head are gradually expanding. Now the consumer circle has also begun to solidify slowly. Consumers only buy the brand that recognizes wine. This change is conducive to the strong strong.

However, good things will continue to pay attention to capital. We believe that the volatility of the sauce industry in the future will be further reduced, the industry's prosperity cycle will be extended, and sauce is still a good business, and this logic has not changed. As long as the business model is not broken, the capital layout will only arrive late, and it will definitely not be absent.

Internal cycles of high -end liquor consumer circles have become a new trend

NBD: In the past two years, the sauce and even the liquor industry have undergone profound changes. What new trends do you think?

Ye Shuhuai: We have observed that several new trends have appeared on the demand side of the liquor. First, the entire wine sales model changes, in recent years, the epidemic situation has led to the lack of consumer scenarios, and a model similar to the circulation in the consumer circle has emerged. That is, the old customers found the old veteran and buy the old brand recognized in their minds.

In fact, the difficulty is gradually increasing whether it is a tasting meeting or some new media marketing. Consumers' cognition began to focus on the core items of a few big brands. We believe that in the future, liquor consumption will return to large brands, will return to core items, and the market share of strong brands will be further increased.

Second, in terms of price, we are more optimistic about high -end. High -end definition is still the strongest. Sauce wine naturally has the logic of better quality after aging. Now consumers also recognize this logic. In the future, the growth of sauce will come more from the price. From the historical history of the past 40 years, the price of Moutai is basically fluctuating between one -third to one -third to the per capita income of cities and towns. In other words, the difference between ordinary people's one -month salary is the difference between buying one bottle of Moutai or three bottles of Moutai.

The enhancement of superimposed investment attributes in this round of cycle is far. At present, this proportion is far from peak. In other words, the price of Feitian Maotai still has room for improvement. For the competitive pattern of high -end wine price bands, including barriers to the establishment of head brands, it is still very high.

For emerging sauce wine, if you want to make bigger and stronger in the field of sauce, you must have some unique advantages of the track, either from quality or positioning people. Based on your own situation, the core items are launched at the relevant price position to raise the overall brand positioning. We expect the overall sauce will be expanded at ultra -high -end and 500 ~ 1,000 yuan in the future.

At present, the growth rate of these two price belts is still relatively high, the certainty is also strong, and the brand pattern is relatively scattered. Each sauce company also has a relatively large opportunity. The consumer scene corresponding to high -end and sub -high -end prices will be richer in the future, including business banquets, catering, wedding banquets, student banquets, etc., so the entire sauce product will focus on their own positioning to focus on their own positioning. It is very important to develop a market segment.

In the future, high -quality sauce wine can still be scarce

NBD: Specific to brand and production areas, what new observations and thinking do you have?

Ye Shuhuai: In terms of brand, we expect that the "Mao Department" brand will eat a considerable part of the market. Moutai 1935 has been recognized by the outside world, while Moutai treasures, aging, small batch blending and year wine have extensive consumers at all price belts. The value chain of Moutai will also be extended up and down, and some new user groups will also be obtained. In the long run, it is still "Mao Department".

After that, the concept of the production area. In the future, the surrounding area of ​​Chishui River and the emerging sauce wine production area are actually a chance, just a chance of opportunity. From the perspective of the region, the current core market markets, such as Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Guangdong and other provinces, in fact, occupy a lot of market space. The taste of sauce wine has an aggressiveness. The next stage is to strengthen the market share of traditional economic provinces. This may be the goal of the future sauce company.

After this round of sauce is adjusted, the normalized inventory of many sauce companies is within two or even two months, which is already normal. The speed of the expansion capacity of the head sauce company can only meet the tight supply and demand balance, so the price has begun to stop falling. In the future, high -quality sauce wine, especially the production capacity of Kunsha sauce, is still relatively scarce. We believe that the overall market share of sauce in the future is still a big trend, and sauce is still a good track.

Daily Economic News

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