U.S. Inflation in August is less than expected to be sold again and again

The main logic that has recently affected the trend of the gold market is still the Fed's monetary policy. The Federal Reserve President Powell, whether at the speech conference or at the Jackson Hall Annual Conference, clearly states that the exact scale of any interest rate hike depends on the data that is about to be announced in the future. The last key data before the September Best Conference -Consumer Price Index (CPI) will inevitably attract special attention from the market.

The US CPI in August also lived up to expectations, and once again exploded the market. The US dollar index exceeded the 110 mark, hitting a new high in the past 20 years. The three major U.S. stock index fell sharply, and gold was sold. On September 12, the highest rose to $ 1735/ounce on September 12, and the lowest exploration to nearly $ 1654/ounce. Fall 2.45%.

Data show that the US August CPI increased by 8.3%year -on -year, higher than the expected 8.1%, and the core CPI increased by 6.3%annually, higher than the previous value of 5.9%and the market expectations of 6.1%. The annual rate of producer price index (PPI) increased by 8.7%year -on -year, slightly lower than the expected 8.8%, the core PPI rose 7.3%year -on -year, and fell from the previous value of 7.7%, but higher than the expected 7.1%; the core PPI increased by 0.4%month -on -month, high, high, high, high 0.3%of the expected and previous values.

The high inflation rate may cause the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates at several conferences in the next few interest rates. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at 50 basis points at the September interest rate interest rate. It is expected that the probability of 75 basis points in the interest rate hike in September reached 75%, and the probability of 100 basis points in interest rate hikes reached 25%.

At present, the decline in gold prices has been priced at 75 basis points of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. If 75 basis points are raised as scheduled, it is not ruled out that boots landing, expected digestion, and rising gold prices. If the Fed continues to raise 100 basis points, the price of gold will face the pressure again. However, the US midterm elections are facing uncertainty, and the geopolitical conflict is still continuing, and it is expected to limit the decline in gold prices.

In terms of funds, last week, the world's largest gold trading open index fund (ETF) continued to reduce positions by 5.79 tons, and the funds continued to flow out of the gold spot market, which was not good for gold.

Technically, the international gold price fell since March 2021 on September 12, which triggered a technical stop loss and even short -term entry. The price of gold once fell to nearly $ 1654/ounce. Although it has rebounded nearly $ 20 from a low point and stands at $ 1670/ounce, the top 1680 US dollars/ounces to form a strong pressure level.

From the perspective of the Japanese K -line, the moving average system is arranged short, and the differential moving average (MACD) green column grows. On September 19th, if the gold price cannot be on the Dongfeng Station of the Federal Reserve's interest conference, it will not be optimistic, and the possibility of entering the bear market will not be able to enter the bear market.

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