It takes 7 months to clear the Australian Dairy Dairy inventory?

Flower Finance Original

Back to Yili, it is still not easy to cool.

In October last year, Yili announced that it had issued and acquired and subscribed for new shares of Australian Dairy, which triggered a comprehensive offer under the conservation of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

By March of this year, Yili's 59.17%equity of Australia's 59.17%was included in the cost of 10.8 billion Hong Kong dollars.

According to Euromonatte data, in 2021, Yili and Australia accounted for 12%of the domestic infant powder market share, ranking second, second only to Feihe (21%).

Huatai Securities predicts that the two parties can optimize the product portfolio through this acquisition, and then generate synergy to strengthen cooperation in the expansion and maintenance of distribution channels and customer acquisition.

How to paint the wind, Yili and Aoyou's story did not tell well.

Inventory pressure doubles

A financial report, which revealed how fast Australia changed his face after Yili settled.

On August 29, Australia released the performance report in the first half of 2022, achieving operating income of 3.630 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.10%year -on -year; net profit of home mother was 222 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 62.93%.

Compared with the performance of the interim reports in the past few years, this is the first time that Australian Dairy Dairy has doubled in revenue and profits. From the perspective of revenue data, the revenue of Australia at that time was even lower than the level of 2020; the net profit was even more, retreating to the level of 2017.

Specifically, in the first half of the year, the sales of Australian Milk Milk Powder (China) were 1.279 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 37.6%; the sales of the sheep milk powder (China) brand were 1.583 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 1.5%.

Australia revealed in the financial report that the company has taken the initiative to make a series of sales policies for Haypanaka 1897 (its own milk powder core brand) since the end of 202 to provide customers with fresher and better products while reducing major distribution of major distribution The inventory and funding pressure of business and channel partners has more strict control on the overall inventory level of the distribution channels.

Looking back at the past, the company also implemented a short -term and one -time active adjustment on its own brand formula sheep milk powder Jiabeite in the second half of 2020. The company said that the adjustment of the sheep milk powder business unit is more tough and solid in terms of channel management and brand power.

However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the number of days of inventory in Australia in the first half of this year is 211 days, which means that the current inventory of Australia will take 7 months to clear, which is almost at the highest level in recent years.

For the milk powder industry, consumers often pay great attention to the freshness of the production date. Australian excellent inventory turnover days, and the data of Feihe is only 93.66 days. As of the end of June 2022, Australia's inventory amount was 2.272 billion yuan, accounting for 24.23%of the company's total assets.

From incremental market to stock competition

Australia's stall, on the one hand, is not optimistic about industry growth, and on the other hand, it is derived from the intensification of market competition.

In recent years, as the domestic birth rate has continued to decline, the growth rate of the milk powder industry has gradually slowed down. According to AC Nielsen data, in the first half of 2022, the sales level of the infantile industry in my country decreased by 4%year -on -year, and the overall demand of the industry market was declining.

Although during the slowdown in the growth rate of the industry in the early days, the market size of goat milk powder can still maintain a relatively high speed growth. From 2015-2020, the compound growth rate of sales in my country's sheep milk powder market reached 11.1%, which is much higher than that of overall infants with powder. By the growth rate of 5%, the market size reached 10.4 billion yuan in 2020.

However, with the continuous decline in my country's birth rate and the size of the baby powder market, the size and growth rate of my country's goat milk powder market will inevitably touch the growth ceiling, the growth rate has declined straight, and even approaching zero growth state.

When the industry has shifted from an incremental market to the stock competition, the market has inevitably evolved into inside competition.

As early as July last year, Feihe had acquired Lao Miao Ke, and then launched lamb Miao Ke, Jiarui Miao Ke, Jiaai Ai 3 goat milk powder brands; Later, the first pure goat milk powder "Zhenwei Ai" was also launched recently.

Foreign dairy giants are also constantly adding the goat milk market. In March of this year, Danone reached a strategic cooperation with Hunan Obijia, who had sheep Zizi pure goat milk powder brand; Wyeth also listed on Qifu's overseas flagship store, Qifu Yongyu milk powder.

Food safety issues have attracted much attention

It is reported that Australia was established in Changsha, Hunan Province in September 2003. However, Australian Youyou's real performance exploded from the acquisition of Hepnuokai, launching infant formula goat milk powder "Jiabeite" in the domestic market.

In 2011, Australia had spent 16 million euros to acquire the Dutch dairy company Hepnuokai Dairy Group and set up its brand Jiabeite to enter the goat milk powder track.

Subsequently, Australia's revenue in 2012 exceeded the 1 billion yuan mark in one fell swoop and began to rise. After more than 10 years of development, Jiabeite's sales in 2021 have exceeded 3 billion yuan, becoming the core brand of Australia.

According to Nielsen data, since 2018, the sales of Australian Young formula goat milk powder have been in the total imports of more than 60 % of the total imports of domestic infant formulas, ranking first in the global goat milk powder.

However, with the continuous joining of leading dairy companies, at the same time, the channel advantages of the giant may inevitably bring a lot of pressure on Australia. To this day, the quality of Australia's products is difficult to explain to consumers. In November 2019, Jiabei Ait's milk powder appeared on the livelihood program "1818 Golden Eyes" because of a foreign body. A consumer said that she bought 10 boxes of Jiabei Aite brand goat milk powder, and found that there were foreign bodies in both cans, brown and black, which was hard, and this was not the first time that similar problems were discovered.

In April of this year, the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration issued a notice on the unqualified food spot inspection of 13 batches of food. The illegal income was 20,300 yuan and a fine of 9.6213 million yuan. It is due to the problem of over -range and over -limited use of food additives.

Australia's performance in the capital market is not optimistic. As of September 19, 2022, Australia's stock price was reported at HK $ 5.69/share, compared with the historical highest price of 17.23 yuan/share in mid -2020, a decrease of 66.96%.

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