Renminbi does not have the basis of trend depreciation

In the early morning of September 22, Beijing time, the Fed announced the September interest rate resolution to increase the federal fund interest rate 75 basis points to 3%-3.25%, the highest level since 2008.

This is the fifth interest rate hike this year, and it is also the third consecutive major interest rate hikes 75 basis points, the fastest interest rate hike record in the past 40 years. This move also triggered a foreign exchange market vibration. The US dollar index rose rapidly, hitting a maximum of 111.633, and renewal since June 2002.

"The pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continues to exceed expectations, the rhythm of other major developed economies, the improvement of market risk aversion, and weak non -US dollar currency performance, etc., are the main reasons for the scale, degree, and toughness of this round of US dollars. "Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Greater China, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the US dollar index will continue to maintain an upward trend in the short term.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, also told the Securities Daily that the US dollar may maintain strong in the short term, but lacks a continuous strong stronger foundation. At present, the US economy has slowed down, the risk of economic recession has risen, and the strengthening of the US dollar deviates from the fundamentals.

The RMB exchanges against the US dollar. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on September 22, Beijing time, the RMB's intermediate price of the US dollar was reported at 6.9798, a significant degradation of 262 basis points. After the middle price is released, more offshore RMB to the US dollar that reflects international investors will continue to fall below 7.09, and then falls below 7.10. As of 15:00 on September 22, Beijing time, the off -shore RMB's minimum of 7.1048 in the US dollar exchange rate disk was a new low since June 7, 2020.

"Because the Fed's radical 'water collection' and the US dollar stronger, it constitutes a certain pressure on non -US currencies such as RMB. Although the renminbi has depreciated against the US dollar, the RMB has maintained a strong money on a basket of currencies." Zhou Maohua said. In terms of revenue and expenditure, RMB exchange rate elasticity, and long -term allocation value of RMB assets, the renminbi does not have the basis for the depreciation of the trend. Despite the changes in overseas macro environment, the renminbi will continue to run in a reasonable range, and the two -way fluctuations are normalized.

In Pang Ye's view, considering that my country's macroeconomic volume is expanding, stronger toughness, exchange rate marketization reform has enhanced the resistance to external impact, the financial system autonomy and stability are stronger, the attraction of RMB assets is enhanced, the strong dollar is strong It has limited impact on our country. At the same time, in order to cope with the external impact brought by the strong dollar, on the one hand, the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate should be continued, the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate should be strengthened, the expected management is improved, the macro -prudential management of cross -border financing is improved, and the market entities are guided to adhere to the "risk risk The concept of neutrality "maintains the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level; on the other hand, it should continuously deepen the two -way opening of financial financial and enhance the attraction of RMB assets in the country.

Reporter Liu Qi and Du Yumeng, a trainee reporter Han Yu

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