The impact of "tightening" continues: "Anchor of Global Asset Price" refreshed more than 10 years of high, and US mortgage interest rates approached 6.3%

21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Bin Shanghai report

As the central banks such as the Federal Reserve have intensified, US debt prices have continued to fall, and US debt yields have reached a new high for many years.

On September 22, the Eastern Time, the yield of the two -year US debt was 4.163%, the highest since October 2007. The five -year US debt yield hit 3.942%, the highest since November 2007, and the 10 -year US debt yield jumped to 3.716%, the highest since February 2011. The difference in yields in 2 years/10 -year public debt reached 58 basis points, which is the most serious inverse in at least 20 years. On September 23, the yield of US bonds on each period of U.S. bonds rose again.

For the Federal Reserve, who continues to raise interest rates in the eagle, Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that considering that the formation mechanism of inflation in this round is very different from the past, the liquidity is too loose and the liquidity is too eager to rush. The supply side dominated the decision to become slower, the US -Europe monetary policy turned slowly, returning to looseness, or slower shooting. For the market, the core focus of the future will be switched to the end point interest rate level and policy steering time. After the September meeting, the market not only fixed the Fed's final interest rate from 4.25-4.5%to 4.5-4.75%, but also shifted the policy to the time of the policy from June 2023 to July.

In addition, inflation is more stubborn than the previous market expectations. Debon Securities Chief Economist Lu Zhe told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that we believe that the adhesion and diffusion of inflation means that the long period of high inflation will be stretched, which means that the risk of inflation and ingrains still tends to rise upward. The market's expectations for the austerity of near -end the region of the United States have not been fully included. At the same time, problems or structural but not periodic. Although the short -term supply exists at the marginal level, the total supply is contracted or medium and long -term.

Global Central Bank's interest rate hikes are huge

Driven by the Super Eagle Federal Reserve, a huge interest rate hike in the central bank has become more and more intense.

On September 21, the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points to 3%-3.25%of the federal fund interest rates. The interest rate resolution was interpreted by the market as extreme eagles. Essence At the remaining two meetings this year, the Fed will need to raise interest rates to 125 basis points.

SEEMA Shah, chief global strategist of Xinan Global Investment Corporation, said: "The Fed is planning hard landing, and soft landing is almost impossible. Powell acknowledged that economic growth would be lower than the trend level within a period of time. During the decline. From now on, the situation will become more severe. "

As the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the fiscal deficit facing the federal government will further intensify in the next few years. According to the predictions of the Federal Budget Commission (CRFB) of the non -profit organization, the interest rate hike announced only this week will increase a $ 2.1 trillion government deficit in the next decade.

Today, the total US debt level has expanded to about 120%of GDP. As interest rates rise, the US federal government's borrowing costs of US $ 30.89 trillion in debt will also increase. CRFB has previously estimated that in the next few years, the interest payment of debt itself will become the fastest growth rate in the federal budget.

After the Fed's interest rate hikes, many central banks around the world followed the pace of the Fed and also adopted radical interest rate hikes to further exacerbate the sales of the US bond market. Less than a day after the Fed's interest rate resolution in September, Asia -Europe and Africa had no less than seven central banks to choose to raise interest rates, and did not include the central banks that had to linked to the Federal Reserve.

More iconic is that on September 22, the Swiss central bank raised interest rates from -0.25%to 0.5%as expected. Since then, all central banks in Europe have been separated from negative interest rates, marking the end of the European negative interest rate era.

Behind US debt yields, many U.S. debt traders are also worried about adopting exchange rate intervention in various countries to defend the local currency. Some people worry that Japan may sell US bonds to raise US dollars required for the purchase of domestic currencies. On September 22, the Bank of Japan has been in the market for the first time since 1998 to intervene in buying yen, while Japan is the "largest US creditors" holding US $ 123.363 trillion.

However, there are also opinions that Japan will not sell US debt significantly in the short term. The Bank of Japan has more than $ 110 billion of funds in the Fed's Foreign and International Monetary Administration's repurchase pool. After these cash deplete, Japan may have to sell US debt.

Blake Gwinn, the US interest rate strategy director of RBC Capital Markets, said: "The Bank of Japan first considers the use of cash in the back -repurchase pool because there is no cost. If the Bank of Japan chooses to sell US debt at this time, it will bear to bear Capital loss. "

10 -year US debt yield rising space may be limited

It should be noted that while the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to increase the yield of US debt, the risk of economic recession is also heating up sharply.

In fact, even the Fed itself acknowledged the possibility of economic recession. Powell said at a press conference after the interest rate resolution this week, "We have always believed that it is very challenging to restore the stable price while reaching a soft landing. We do not know whether the interest rate hike will lead to economic recession. Soft landing may also be reduced, and our purpose is to reduce inflation. "From a larger perspective, Kristalina Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), It was also stated on the 22nd that the global economic prospects were "dim" this year, but the situation in 2023 may be even more severe, unless the central banks of various countries can control inflation.

Although the Federal Reserve Super Eagle policy has continued to surge in 10 -year US debt yields, the followers of economic recession are also restricting future upward space. Lu Zhe believes that in the short term, the trading of tightening and recession logic at the same time on the 10 -year US bond interest rates means that the trend of its high volatility will continue. Although the 10 -year US bond interest rate has exceeded 3.50%of the high, considering considering that it is considered that it is considered that it is considered that considering that it is considered that it is considered that it is considered that considering that it is considered that it is considered that it is considered that considering that it is considered that it is considered that it is considered that considering that The magnification of the decline logic in time and space is difficult to bring a new round of the center of the 10 -year US bond interest rate.

Regarding the future, Zhao Wei predicts that in the next two quarters, the peripheral market will continue the state of high fluctuations. The economic level will be in the sensitive stage of "stagflation" to "recession" switching, and the stability of policy expectations is relatively poor. Leading indicators show that the overseas economy enters the window of "recession" or at the intersection of winter and spring. Considering the timeliness and effectiveness of the "bottom" of currencies and finances will also be greatly weakened, the degree of "recession" overseas may be underestimated in the future. In the tightening cycle, the "reversal" of corporate leverage is the main risk consideration, and the possibility of "crisis" recession does not rule out. Based on history, in the process of recession, there is still a lot of pressure on overseas markets, and this round may be no exception.

In Lu Zhe's view, if the Federal Reserve wants to defend the stable price of prices, it must restore the supply and demand to a balanced state before the outbreak of the epidemic. In the context where the total supply is not fully repaired, what the Fed must do is not only to let the total demand fall to the level before the outbreak, but to lower it below the level before the outbreak.

Under the tide tide, the US mortgage interest rate is approaching 6.3%

As the "anchor of global asset pricing", the recent rise in the 10 -year US debt yield has also led to the continuous rise in US mortgage interest rates.

On September 22, a survey of loan institutions released by Freddie Mac, a US housing mortgage, showed that the average interest rate of 30 -year fixed mortgage loans in the United States has climbed to 6.29%, the highest since October 2008.

The higher interest rate will almost affect every corner of the economy, but the impact on housing is particularly serious. The monthly supply of buyers will increase by hundreds of dollars or even thousands of dollars.

At the same time, the U.S. real estate market is also significantly cooling. Although the price of houses continues to record year -on -year, the price is declining monthly, and the soaring mortgage interest rate has made many potential buyers discourage.

Data released by the National Real Estate Broker (NAR) of the United States National Real Estate Broker (NAR) showed that the total number of housing sales in the United States in July declined for the seventh consecutive month to reach an annualization of 4.8 million households, a record low since May 2020. In addition, the median number of houses in August rose 7.7%year -on -year to US $ 389,500, a minimum increase since 2020. In comparison, in June this year, the number of housing prices reached 413,800 US dollars in history.

Although high interest rates and high housing prices have suppressed demand, the inventory problem is still expected to support house prices, and it is unlikely that it is unlikely. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "In the next few months or even a few years, inventory will remain tense. Some homeowners are unwilling to sell Demand. We did not see the increase in net inventory. "

A unfavorable signal is that although the U.S. property market has cool down, the rental market is "hot". Data released by Zumper on August 29 showed that the median monthly rent of the newly listed one -bedroom house in the United States was $ 1486, an increase of 11.8%over August 2021, and also exceeded the record high touched in July this year. In the United States, the rent in the United States rose double -digit, and the increase in some cities rose more than 30%.

For the Federal Reserve, it is obviously not wanting to see the rental market so "hot". The cost of housing is the largest component of the US CPI composition, with a weight of about one -third, and housing costs often become an important indicator for the Federal Reserve to decide the interest rate hike path. With more lease expiration and higher market prices, there may be more upward space for rent in the next few months, and the tightening pressure of the Fed will still not be light.

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