The central bank takes the shot to stabilize the RMB exchange rate

The People's Bank of China issued a notice on Monday that the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business has been raised from 0 to 20%since September 28. The central bank stated that this is to strengthen macro -prudential management in order to stabilize the foreign exchange market expectations.

As of 9:56 on Monday, the RMB reported to the US dollar 7.1490, a new low since June 2020. Since August, the decline in the US dollar has reached 5.7%.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, stated to the interface that the central bank has two goals for raising the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of long -term foreign exchange sales business. One is to release a strong signal of stable exchange rates to the market, and the other is the risk reserve rate Improvement does help crack down on RMB shorts, play a role in stabilizing exchange rate expectations and maintaining a reasonable and stable RMB exchange rate.

Wu Chaoming said that from the perspective of the specific mechanism, increasing the foreign exchange risk reserve rate will stabilize the exchange rate from the aspects of supply and demand. On the one hand, the financial institutions that carry out the long -term exchange business will collect foreign exchange risk reserves. If you do not pay interest, reduce the funding supply of the RMB exchange rate; on the other hand, it will increase the reporting price of long -term purchase, increase the cost of long -term foreign exchange purchase, and suppress the demand for long -term foreign exchange purchase.

Long -term foreign exchange sales are a exchange rate shelter provided by commercial banks to foreign trade enterprises. When the RMB depreciation is expected to be strong, the enterprise will use this tool more and lock the cost of foreign exchange purchase in advance, so as to avoid more losses. In 2015, the central bank proposed in the "Notice on Strengthening the Macro Prudential Management of Macro -Sales for Macro -Stock Exchange" to collect foreign exchange risk reserves for financial institutions that conduct valeting remittance sales business. The reserve interest rate is tentatively zero. In this case, the bank will pass on the interest income of their losses to customers to increase the reporting price of long -term purchases. The enthusiasm of customers in long -term foreign exchange purchase may decline.

In the past few years, the central bank has repeatedly used foreign exchange risk reserve to adjust the foreign exchange market expectations. Generally, when the RMB depreciation is expected to be strong, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is raised. When the RMB appreciation is expected to be strong, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is reduced.

In September 2017, the central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve rate of long -term foreign exchange sales to 0. At that time, the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar had appreciated significantly. In August 2018, the depreciation pressure of the renminbi was greater, and the central bank raised it from 0 to 20%. In October 2020, the renminbi is more popular, and the central bank has reduced the foreign exchange risk reserve rate of the long -term foreign exchange sales business from 20%to 0.

On September 5, Liu Guoqiang, vice president of the People's Bank of China, stated at the State Council's policies that the long -term trend of the RMB exchange rate is clear, and the recognition of the future world will continue to increase. In the short term, the two -way fluctuations in the renminbi are a normal state, and there will be no "unilateral cities", but the point is not allowed. "Don't go to the gambling point."

"Reasonable balance and basic stability are what we like to see. We also have the strength to support it. I don't think there will be any accidents or an accident." Liu Guoqiang said.

Shortly after his speech, on the evening of the same day, the People's Bank of China announced that starting from September 15, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was reduced by 2 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was reduced from the current 8%to 6%.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told the interface news on Monday that from the perspective of bank foreign exchange settlement data in August, the exchange rate for the conclusion of foreign exchange settlement was 71%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the average monthly value since this year. It can be seen that the current RMB exchange rate rate At the point, the market entity is more willing to settle in foreign exchange, and it is an important support for the RMB exchange rate. The exchange rate of the willingness to sell for foreign exchange in August was 67%, which was basically the same as the monthly average of this year, reflecting the transaction model of "high exchange and divighting of foreign exchange purchase" in the market entity. The foreign exchange market transaction order was generally good.

He said that from the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, it is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter will have a significant rise from the second quarter. The level of inflation is mild and controllable, and the international revenue and expenditure conditions will be good. Especially for regular projects and direct investment basic projects Maintaining a high surplus has laid the foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, and there is no basis for the renminbi.

Source interface news

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