Daoda Investment Notes: A rare phenomenon will rebound at any time on the market

Last weekend, Dago saw an important news and wanted to share it with the old iron. A research report from securities firms shows that as of the end of August, the private equity position had dropped to 59%, and it was 4 percentage points compared with July.

Many friends have no concept of this position level, and you can refer to previous data. At the end of March this year, the private equity position was 59%, and the end of April was 56.5%. If you continue to trace history, you can find that when the private equity position is close or less than 55%, the probability is the historic bottom. For example, in the second half of 2008, the fourth quarter of 2018, etc.

Considering that the market is still adjusting in September, and combining the phenomenon of killing "white horse stocks" every day, it is estimated that the current position of private equity is still decreasing. If the above historical data is for reference, from the perspective of private equity's progress, the market is about a stage.

Faid stimulus event limited

Come back to talk about the market. The performance of the broader market yesterday can only be said to have no suspense. There have been a good wave of pulling in the three major index discs, which are mainly stimulated by good news. Before the market, the central bank launched a 7 -day period of 42 billion yuan and a 14 -day period of 93 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. Because there were 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expiration on the day, the net launch was 133 billion yuan.

The liquidity to the market is of course affected by the National Day holiday, but the net launch in the same period last year was only 100 billion yuan. The extra funds are naturally good, and it can be seen from the A -share market in the morning.

At the same time, the central bank also decided to increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20%from September 28.

In 2015 and 2018, after the central bank raised the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio twice, the exchange rate trend had a stable performance in the short term. For A shares, it is obviously understandable as good, so you can also see the net inflow of funds in the north.

However, the stimulus of favorable disk surface is limited, and the market is still weak. The market only appears a "half -day tour" market. In the afternoon, the shock fell. There was a wave of small diving at the end. Essence

However, from another perspective, in recent trading days, the market has risen on the market, and the duration gradually grows. And yesterday, the amount of funds for buying low in the early morning of the market exceeded the red wave of the red wave last Friday afternoon. To a certain extent, the amount of funds shows that the strength of the bulls is actually increasing. This is a good phenomenon, but this part of the funds are small. The key depends on whether this power can be momentum.

Hotel food performance is strong

On the plate, the concept of energy storage is active. In Ningde Times announced a cooperation agreement with the US energy storage technology platform and solution supplier Flexgen, which will supply advanced energy storage products for the latter in 3 years. Judging from the trend of Ningde Times, yesterday still belongs to the nature of the rebound, and the moving average above is still in a short arrangement.

Some stocks in the building materials sector may have a discharge, which may be related to building materials companies with a large export business with a good export business. Most building materials stocks still fall, and the amount can be relatively average. It can only be treated as a weak rebound.

The hotel's catering sector has a strong performance, which is related to the news of the Hong Kong epidemic. In addition, this section is used to this section before the section. This section encountered pressure after the early trading of the section. Observed. Be careful before the holidays, and the festive varieties should be fulfilled, and the short -term is not suitable for pursuit.

What has fallen more is the recent strong sector, such as resource stocks represented by petroleum, coal, and natural gas. The decline is mainly due to the sharp decline in resource products under the strong US dollar cycle. The position is a new low since this year.

As far as traditional energy is concerned, Dago's current attitude is not empty. This kind of strong stock is just a sharp adjustment of a day and cannot be seen. Some market news is interpreted as a signal of a strong stock supplement. It can only be said that the current market transaction value has been reduced sharply. The rotation between the sectors is normal. We must not only pay attention to the short -term situation, but also observe the continuity.

In terms of short -term emotions, there has been a long time that Dago has not seen. There are 36 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen daily limit, but there is only one stock "Lian Bo" stock, which is rare. This has never been seen in the market in March and April this year. It is basically the freezing point of emotions. This phenomenon will be repaired in a short period of time.

Interestingly, after the A -share closing, the Hang Seng Index rebounded, and the US dollar index had a diving. This should be a good phenomenon.

Or continue to shake after repair

Based on yesterday's market, Da Ge felt that the main points were mainly the following:

First of all, the market is not a bad thing. What we are most afraid of is that the market has fallen continuously. The increase in the amplitude yesterday is more conducive to the market bottom.

Judging from the 15 -minute K -line diagram of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, there are currently two ways to go. One is the follow -up efforts to quickly release, and the other is the short -term repair back to the platform of last week to continue to fluctuate.

As far as the current situation is concerned, Dago tends to the latter. Yesterday, the pattern presented by the market was very centralized and structured. Although the entire market was still in a general decline, some sectors had a linked refusal to fall.

Secondly, recognize your own trading model.Based on the above cognition, my understanding is that the broader market is still in a disadvantaged period, but the short -term rebound will come at any time.For us, we must recognize ourselves, whether to be short -term or mid -line.The short -term probability to try opportunities, and the mid -line is currently not a cost -effective trading stage.The emotional freezing point mentioned earlier, superimposed the "3000 -point defense war" discussed by everyone. Honestly, if you are set to death, the index and emotions can reach a low point of resonance, and it is also a one that starts the new cycle and new market.Method.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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