Maritime Market Division: Oil transportation price rose over 100% year -on -year set price price continued to fall

As a traditional peak season, this year's market transport market has shown the characteristics of the peak season, and the current price continues to fall. On September 23, China's export container freight index was 2475.97 points, a decrease of 5.1%from the previous period (September 16, 2022), and the container freight index has fallen for many weeks.

The crude oil transportation market (referred to as "oil transportation") of the sea transportation is ushered in the peak season in advance.

Contrary to the trend of the container freight index. On September 23, the China imported crude oil freight index of China Shipping Exchange was 1816.13 points, an increase of 15.41 points from the previous issue.

Yang Chang, the head of the policy group and chief analyst of the China -Thailand Institute of Securities Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily: "The high degree of prosperity of oil transportation is mainly caused by the supply of replacement. Rigidity, and the supply side of the original shrinkage may be difficult to make volume, perhaps because of the reason for seeking new supply for replacement, it has promoted the price of oil transportation. "

The peak season is not strong

Price continuous decline

In general, the sea transport sector is subdivided into several categories such as collecting, dry bulk and oil transportation.

After the two -year super -large cycle of the market, the market price fell continuously.

According to the data released by the Shanghai Aviation Stock Exchange on September 23, the latest issue of the Shanghai export container freight index fell 240.61 points to 2072.04 points, a weekly decrease of 10.40%, and it has fallen for 15 weeks.

In fact, so far, the Shanghai export container freight index fell nearly 60%from the historical high at the beginning of the year. Most of the main routes fell more than 10%, and the US West Line fell below $ 3,000.

Last week, the shipping price of each Bid Base of the United States West fell 366 US dollars to $ 2684, a drop of 12%. The shipping price of each East Line of the United States fell to $ 638 to $ 6,538, and lost 7,000 US dollars, a weekly decrease of 8.9%, a cumulative decrease of 45%from the beginning of the year.

On September 20, Xiao Junguang, the secretary of COSCO Haikong, said in an external exchange that the subsequent market may show a scene where the peak season is not strong and the off -season is not light, which is related to the return of some effective capacity to the market in the early stage. At this stage, demand is at a relatively low point this year, and it is expected to rise in the future.

Oil transportation demand accelerate recovery

The inflection point of supply and demand has arrived?

At the same time that the large cycle of transportation fades, the oil transport sector ushered in a round of growth. Except for VLCC (large tanker), the daily income level of other oil ship types has increased by more than 100%compared with the same period last year.

Last week, the large-scale tanker of the Middle East-China route rose and maintained a high level of 68,000 US dollars/day.

Regarding the reasons for the rise in oil transportation rates, Guotai Junan Securities' Delivery Industry stated in the research report that geopolitical factors have changed the international oil trade pattern. Small and medium -sized ship types of crude oil wheels benefited from the exports of US Bay and West Africa to Europe. Active performance. Under the situation where the oil refining profit margin supports trade activity, the refined oil tanker presents a strong recovery momentum.

"From the perspective of demand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of crude oil is expected to gradually rise. In addition, the inventory is at a historical low, and the demand for crude oil is expected to grow steadily. In terms of supply, new ship orders have reached a record low. At present, the industry's existing orders account for 5.0%of the existing capacity ratio, the lowest value since 1997. Old ships with more than 10%, the definition of the industry's ship demolition is getting larger and larger. It has strong certainty. "For the reasons for the high degree of prosperity in the oil transport sector in the near future, a chief investment advisor of the unknown brokerage company told the Securities Daily reporter.

Guotai Junan Securities said that in addition to aviation, oil transportation is another industry that has been significantly affected by the epidemic. At present, the fundamentals of oil transportation are still at the bottom. In the next two years, the recovery will be obtained. In the past two years, the supply and demand of the sector will be found to be found. Crude oil terminal consumption will return to increase, and crude oil de -inventory will basically be completed. The New Deal will accelerate the capacity.

At the same time that the prosperity of the oil transport sector has increased, oil transportation stocks have also recently gone out of independence. Since the adjustment of the broader market on July 5, COSCO has risen against the trend. So far, the cumulative increase has increased by more than 80%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen by 8.8%at the same time.

Anxin Securities stated in the research report that the inflection point of oil transportation supply and demand has arrived, ushered in the upward cycle, short -term geopolitics, new environmental protection regulations and other factors such as resonance or further affecting demand supply, pushing the oil transportation prosperity, and the curve of oil transportation demand is steep. Poor supply and demand are expected to bring a significant increase in freight rates.

Reporter Shi Lu

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