Gold has fallen to the lowest in more than two years?How will gold go?Will it still fall?

Recently, the fierce fluctuations of gold prices have aroused widespread market attention, and even have fallen to the lowest level in two years. Many people are asking what should we think of the current change of gold prices? Is gold really be short -scale?

1. The price of gold has fallen to the lowest in two years?

According to Hexun.com, due to the concerns of rapid interest rate hikes in major economies, the US dollar appreciated sharply, and gold prices fell to the lowest level since April 2020.

On Monday, as the dollar soared to a record high, as of press time, the price of gold fell 0.14%to $ 1641.32/ounce. Last week, as the Fed's tightening policy promoted the rise of the US dollar, all markets from commodities to the stock market fell, and the price of gold fell 1.9%last week.

Although there are more and more signs of global economic deterioration, which has exacerbated people's concerns about recession, in the past month, in the face of the continued rise in the US dollar, the traditional shelter of gold has continued to decline. At present, gold has entered a bear market, and the transaction price has fallen by 20%compared to the historical high in 2020.

As central banks from all over the world raised their interest rates to curb inflation, fund managers have been empty for the first time in the past four years.

According to Sina Finance, the warehouse of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold listing and trading fund, fell to 30,454,517 ounces on Friday, the lowest level since March 2020.

Spot silver fell 1.6%to $ 18.54 per ounce, a minimum of more than two weeks earlier; platinum rose 0.5%to $ 858.40, and gold gold rose 0.9%to $ 2084.79.

Moody's analysis has predicted its global GDP (GDP) to 2.7%in 2022, and 2.3%in 2023.

2. Is gold really going to fall?

We saw that the price of gold hit a new low in recent years. Many people are strange. Why does the price of gold fall such a large -scale decline? Where should the reason? How can we analyze the performance of gold?

First of all, we have always said that gold is a reverse indicator of economic development. Generally, the better the economic development, the lower the price of gold, and the worse the economic development, the higher the price of gold, but we observe It seems that the current development of the world economy is not the case, but the price of gold shows a phenomenon that does not meet the laws of daily development. In fact, this is the particularity of the current gold. On the one hand, from the perspective of the development of the entire market, gold is a relatively stressful product for the current market. This is because in the background of the large -scale interest rate hike throughout the Federal Reserve, the market needs to be increasingly needed to take care of it. The funds are pulled out of some speculative markets and entered the deposit savings market with a relatively stable earnings. Therefore, we see that a large amount of funds that speculate in gold have escaped. On the other hand, from the perspective of the exchange rate of the US dollar, because gold is pricing in the US dollar, the appreciation space of each person is getting larger and larger in the background of the interest rate hike, and the end result is the relatively lower and lower price of gold. This is actually actually lower and lower. The result is the result of the appreciation of the dollar.

Secondly, we can say that the current pressure of gold is in fact, in fact, there is a very special reverse indicator. This is the economic downturn. We will find that according to the previous logic, if the economic downside and the Federal Reserve raising interest rate hikes, the two forces of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes will be There are some changes in the game. For example, the pressure of the future economic downturn is sufficient, resulting in the Federal Reserve from the interest rate hike cycle to the interest rate reduction cycle, it is very likely that the price of gold prices will rise sharply. Under the large situation, the economic downturn is not enough to reverse the price of gold, so the phenomenon of continuous decline in gold prices will occur.

Third, from the perspective of long -term market development, gold still has a certain price reduction space at present, so in such a big background, for ordinary investors, it is not a good time to buy gold. Everyone is completely everyone. You can wait for the fluctuations and trends of the gold market, and then consider how to choose your gold asset allocation. At the same time, we must also consider that in the entire market, gold is actually facing relatively large market pressure. For ordinary investors, even if you want to invest in gold, it is not the best time now, and do not invest in physical gold. As an ordinary gold investment, the risk of physical gold itself is extremely risky, and you do n’t have too much. Price advantages, there is a lot of processing costs in physical gold. If you buy physical, especially gold and silver jewelry, it is not a gold investment, but it costs a lot of money.

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