Yongjin Building 丨 Is the renminbi continued to depreciate Zhejiang?

Zhejiang News Client reporter worshiped Zhe Ye

The renminbi is still depreciating.

On September 27, the opening price of the US dollar on the shore was 7.1601, and the closing price of the previous trading day was 7.1464.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates since this time to reduce the number of US dollars in circulation and create the phenomenon of "tight" US dollars. With the rise of the US dollar index, the currency of other countries (including my country) has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, which is the main reason for the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

How to view the depreciation of the renminbi? What are the impacts on Zhejiang's economic development and the public's daily life?

Good export? Not at all

Zhejiang is a large foreign trade province, and the exchange rate of RMB is of course feel.

Foreign traders often say that the depreciation of the renminbi is beneficial to foreign trade export companies. This is indeed the case from exchange. The export settlement of foreign trade companies is dominated by the US dollar, and the depreciation of the renminbi can increase the company's exchange income.

Zou Hangfu, a one -stop service platform for cross -border e -commerce, analyzed that my country ’s cross -border e -commerce is mainly exported. Chinese merchants sell goods on overseas platforms.

After selling the goods, the merchant should exchange the US dollar into RMB to settle foreign exchange. This year, the US dollar has appreciated more than 10%. Under the same sales, the merchants have renamed more. income.

Cross -border e -commerce conditions are also applicable to traditional foreign trade. Zhang Bin, chairman of Zhejiang Province ’s Ministry of Property and Animal Import and Export Group Co., Ltd., said that during this time, the profits of the company's export products were significantly increased, and a large part of them came from the depreciation of the renminbi. The "exchange profit and loss" of the single -column in financial accounting has recently increased profitability.

However, the depreciation of the renminbi is not exactly favorable to the export of foreign trade enterprises.

Some opinion believes that for export companies, the depreciation of the renminbi is equivalent to becoming cheap in the eyes of Chinese merchants in North American merchants, and products have more price advantages.

The price advantage brings export orders, logically correct. However, it should be noted that this time it was not only the RMB depreciating, and other currencies fell more severely against the US dollar.

For example, the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen by more than 20%this year, the largest annual decline since 1979; the euro has depreciated by nearly 13%during the US dollar; the British pound has fallen to a new low since 1985.

Therefore, the dividend of this wave of currency depreciation to China's foreign trade exports is far less than that of Southeast Asia in Japan. Our export advantage of the US dollar settlement is relatively weakened.

Reject "Running"

Experts believe that the depreciation of the renminbi should ring the alarm of foreign trade enterprises, and do not pursue the additional income brought about by exchange in daily operations.

According to Yong Jinjun, some foreign trade companies in Zhejiang did not "gamble" the direction of RMB, but considers costs when quoting, and locked the exchange rate at that time. In the face of exchange rate risks, do not "streak".

Active locking is an effective way for Zhejiang enterprises to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

The European Union is the largest trading market in Zhejiang. At the same time as the depreciation of the US dollar, this wave of RMB has also brought the appreciation of the RMB to the euro. In this context, locking in advance becomes more important.

In order to help enterprises, especially small and micro foreign trade enterprises, reduce losses, Zhejiang has launched exchange rate shelter -related products very early. Enterprises can lock the exchange rate on demand.

Not long ago, the government financing guarantee supporting exchange rate aversion service targets have expanded from small micro -enterprises to individual industrial and commercial households.

"The deposit is removed, and the bank and the guarantee company shall share risks." Jin Haiyan, manager of the International Business Department of the Ruian Sub -branch of the Agricultural Bank of China.

Zou Hangfu also said that the payment platform based on the exchange rate quotation provided by the bank can provide cross -border e -commerce sellers with entrusted exchange rate risk management services such as exchange rate exchange, locking exchange, and reducing the loss of exchange rate fluctuations to cross -border e -commerce sellers.

Copy more risks

In addition to foreign trade, there is also a risk to prevent.

Some analysts believe that when the renminbi devaluation, foreign investment is prone to escape. Taking A shares as an example, the A -share assets held by foreign capital are settled in accordance with the RMB. Under the momentum of the depreciation of the RMB to the US dollar, in order to prevent the renminbi from continuing to devalue in the hand, foreign capital will choose to sell A -share assets in advance, change to change Foreign exchange. In the same way, the intensity of foreign investment in China will also become less.

At this time, the stability of foreign investment was under pressure, but it was an opportunity for Zhejiang.

According to Jiang Wei, deputy dean of Zhejiang Provincial Institute of Commerce, in 2019, Zhejiang took the lead in proposing the "chain long system" of the industrial chain nationwide. Focusing on key industrial chains and key links in various places, focusing on the main type of chain company to carry out "chain investment promotion" to build a built Influential foreign iconic industry chain.

This measure has caused Zhejiang to have a relatively competitive advantage at the stage where foreign capital is not active-

When foreign investment becomes more cautious, they will give priority to investing in local investment in the industrial chain and the main foreign company.

In fact, the influence of the depreciation of the renminbi is not only the national and provincial development, it is closely related to each of us.

For ordinary people, exchange exchange is more expensive, so the supply cost will increase for families who have children studying in North America.

In addition, the depreciation of the renminbi means that the imports of imports in the US dollar are more RMB. This may cause input inflation and cause prices to rise.

For example, the import costs that we import a large amount of oil and chips will increase with the depreciation of the RMB. If the increase in this part is reflected in the retail price, consumers' daily refueling and electronic products may increase their prices. Risk is really existing, but the changes in the exchange rate of the RMB on the US dollar are a phenomenon that has a diversified impact on the economy. It does not mean that the decline in domestic purchasing power, and it does not mean that the national competitiveness is declining.

But risk awareness and bottom line thinking are essential. For enterprises, it is necessary to lock the exchange in advance and operate steadily; for ordinary people, it is necessary to predict the future preparation of foreign exchange dosage in advance.

At the national level, my country is adopting corresponding policy stability exchange rate expectations.

Yesterday, the central bank issued an announcement that it decided to increase the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the long -term foreign exchange sales business from 0 to 20%from September 28, and there are considerations to regulate the continuous depreciation of the renminbi.

Shen Wanhongyuan Securities also analyzed in the research report that comprehensive consideration of overseas demand and alleviating, exports of my country are expected to be better, manufacturing advanced, and there is still enough policies. Essence

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