In the second quarter, my country's economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth

On June 15th, the press conference of the National Economic Operations was held in May 15th. When a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics introduced the operation of the national economy, the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that in the second quarter, my country's economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth.

Influenced by super -expected factors such as the complicated and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic situation, the downward pressure on economic operation in the second quarter was increased. In the face of this situation, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, various regions and departments have efficiently coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, actively stabilize the macroeconomic market, increase the smooth and smoothness of logistics insurance, strengthen the rescue of enterprises, promote enterprises Re -labor and resurgence, economic operations have fallen from the impact of the epidemic to gradually recover.

Affected by the epidemic in many places in April, the main economic indicators declined, the epidemic prevention and control in May, and active changes in production demand, but some indicators still decreased year -on -year. In June, with the implementation of a package of policy measures to achieve the effect of the implementation of policies and measures, economic operations are expected to further improve.

01

Demand pulling is expected to enhance

From the perspective of investment, the efforts of stable investment have continued to increase, and the support role of investment growth has gradually strengthened. From January to May, manufacturing investment increased by 10.6%year-on-year, of which the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 22%. Infrastructure investment has accelerated. From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 6.7%year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points accelerated from January to April. From the perspective of advanced indicators, the total investment of new projects from January to May increased by 23.3%year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth.

From the perspective of consumption and foreign trade, the decline in the total retail sales of social consumer goods in May has narrowed significantly. As the order of life gradually recovers, the pace of consumption recovery will also accelerate. In May, my country's import and export growth rate was significantly accelerated, showing the characteristics of strong foreign trade toughness. With the recovery of the production of foreign trade enterprises and the improvement of port logistics, the export of goods will continue to appear on growth.

02

Production recovery is expected to accelerate

From the perspective of industrial perspective, industrial production in May rose from decline. With the acceleration of the re -production of enterprises, especially the improvement of industrial production in areas with a relatively large impact of the epidemic in the early stage, it will support industrial production to accelerate. According to the survey, the active changes in industrial production in Shanghai, Jilin and other places have increased significantly.

From the perspective of the service industry, in May, the downward trend of the service industry's production index slowed down, and some contact service industries narrowed significantly. With the general improvement of the epidemic prevention and control, the recovery of the order of production and life, the improvement of the service industry is expected to continue. In May, in the service industry PMI, the business activities expectation index rose from last month to 55.2%.

03

It is expected to improve market operation

From the perspective of transportation logistics, in May, cargo turnover increased by 3.4%year -on -year, an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points from last month; the growth rate of the patent container throughput increased from negative to positive, an increase of 4.3%year -on -year. With the continuous advancement of logistics insurance, transportation and logistics will be further improved in June, which will be conducive to the smooth operation of production and circulation.

From the perspective of industrial prices, the effectiveness of market preservation and stable prices has appeared. In May, the output of raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas increased by 10.3%, 3.6%, and 4.9%, respectively, which was conducive to the stability of energy prices, and also drove the increase in PPI increases. In May, PPI rose 6.4%year -on -year, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from last month. PPI, especially the increase in upstream prices, is conducive to alleviating the cost pressure of the middle and lower reaches industries and improving economic operation.

04

Stable growth policies and measures to be further effective

Faced with the complicated and severe external environment and the economic downward pressure brought by the domestic epidemic impact, based on the original steady growth policy and measures, in May, the State Council further introduced a policy measure to stabilize the economy. Implement the requirements of the central government and introduce measures to stabilize the economy in accordance with the local government. These measures are expected to gradually work in June and will promote economic recovery.

From the recent situation, the effective implementation of large -scale tax refund policies has played a positive role in alleviating the pressure of corporate operations. At the same time, the efforts of financial support for the real economy have continued to increase, and corporate funds have improved.

In summary, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled, the implementation of various stable growth measures will be effective, and with the joint efforts of all aspects, the economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter.

Source: Seeking.com

Planning: Li Haihua

Production: Chen Youyong

Review: Wu Qiang Wang Zhaobin

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