Northeast Securities: The tone of the wide currency continues, and it is expected that the capital side will remain stable in July.

Zhongxin Jingwei, June 27th. In June, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for one -year and five -year periods. Keep the same amount of equivalence and continue to do it.

Northeast Securities Macro Team Research Report believes that in July, in July, in view of the large number of national debt due and the small amount of special bond issuance, the government bonds have relatively limited extraction effect on interbank liquidity. Under the tone of wide currency, the capital is expected to remain stable in July.

According to the research report, since the end of April, the DR007 has continued to be under policy interest rates, and the liquidity of interbanks has continued to maintain abundant state. On the one hand, it comes from the impact of insufficient demand under the impact of the epidemic. The central bank's acquiescence of the state of loose funds.

The research report pointed out that it may be inferred that at the perspective of the central bank, monetary policy needs to be stable at this stage. From the perspective, the current credit structure is not good, the real economy still needs to be taken care of, and the necessity of loose monetary policy orientation is still there. From the outside, the fundamentals of China and the United States reversed in the second half of the year and supported the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, with the deepening of the Fed's interest rate hike, the United States' further expected interest rate hike may be taboo in the second half of the year. There is still a confidence based on me.

The research report believes that whether the total amount continues to relax is to pay attention to fiscal policy. The core target of the monetary policy in the second half of the year comes from two points: one to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity and ensure the stable market expectations; If special government bonds issued in the second half of the year, or increase the deficit, and the funding turn, the monetary policy needs to take the initiative). The current monetary policy has been sufficient, the funding supply of funds is relatively abundant, and the fundamental aspects of loosening funds are weakened. In the short term, the current fiscal policy should be the protagonist. The monetary policy needs to maintain the funding for reasonable and abundant, but there is no need for large water irrigation. OMO and MLF and 1 -year LPR policy interest rate reduction is not strong, but for targeted wide credit, the 5 -year LPR interest rate still has room for downgrade. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The views in the article are for reference only, do not constitute investment suggestions, have risks in investment, and need to be cautious to enter the market.)

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