Under the live broadcast boom, the cold thinking of the teaching and training industry

Author | Tang Fei

With bilingual live and live broadcast, the mode of teaching knowledge, New Oriental Online, has recently become the hottest topic in the entire network.

The new "Live Brother" Dong Yuhui and the old "Live Brother" Li Jiaqi are only 1 year behind, but as the new and old top flow in the cargo industry, the two seem to be far away.

After the popularity, the live broadcast data of the East selection began to slip. However, this issue seems to be expected. Yu Minhong revealed in his personal public account that the original plan was not an outbreak, but a gradual step. The popularity of popularity is like a volcanic eruption, which will bring two consequences, devastating or constructive -places covered by volcanic ash, plants will grow vigorously.

Since the "double reduction" policy in July last year, listed education enterprises have "comprehensively reduced their speed" under a stricter regulatory environment. The biggest problem of enterprises is not rapid growth, but how to protect themselves and save themselves when their own survival. Live and cargo, adult education, smart hardware, SaaS services, etc. have all become the direction of education enterprises.

However, it is undeniable that the attempts selected by the Oriental have indeed brought hope to the transformation of the education institution.

Benefiting from the success of Oriental selection, some leading education companies' stock prices have risen significantly, and the stock price of New Oriental Online has soared 172%from June 10th to 20th.

Is this really "good" news?

Can it last?

In order to alleviate the problems of unbalanced resources and exacerbate education anxiety, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the "Opinions on Further Light Compulsory Education Students' Assignment burden and off -campus training burden" on July 24, 2021 (commonly known as "double reduction") , Marked the official implementation of the double reduction policy.

Due to the various reasons such as double reduction+epidemic, the teaching and training industry ushered in the cold winter. New Oriental in the head enterprise announced that it has suspended K12, retired 1500 teaching points, and shut down K9 business. The market value has shrunk by more than 200 billion Hong Kong dollars.

On December 28, 2021, New Oriental Online released the selection of Oriental and Oriental Platform of its live broadcast and cargo platform through the official WeChat, and the founder Yu Minhong conducted the first live broadcast of agricultural products to bring the goods, officially kicked off the prelude to the New Oriental layout of live e -commerce companies.

As of the end of May this year, the live broadcast of New Oriental did not stir too much waves, and the number of online live rooms was not large and sales were bleak.

However, since June, the bilingual live broadcast of the East has received widespread attention from netizens, and the popularity of live broadcasts has risen. Public information shows that starting from June 10, the number of fans, the number of online live rooms, and the GMV (total sales of product sales) in the East have exploded. Ten thousand. Its live broadcast room GMV has been rapidly increased to tens of millions. On June 16, its live broadcast room GMV even exceeded 63 million yuan.

At the same time, the skyrocketing sales have also led to the stock price.

Affected by the "popularity" of bilingual live broadcasts, on June 15 and June 16, the stock price of New Oriental online increased by more than 50%. Within a week, New Oriental's online stock price rose nearly 6 times, and the stock price increased by more than 10 times since May.

However, from the opening on June 17, New Oriental's online stock price began to fall. In the week of the 20th to 24th, New Oriental's online online decline reached 35.03%. As of the close of the 24th, it was reported at HK $ 18.58/share, with a total market value of about 18.59 billion Hong Kong dollars.

New Oriental's stock price trend since May.

According to the New Oriental Online 2022 fiscal report, the six months of November 30, 2021, the total revenue of New Oriental Online was 574 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 15.3%; net loss was 544 million yuan, and the loss decreased by 19.3%year -on -year. During the reporting period, K12's educational revenue was 271 million yuan, accounting for 47.2%of the company's total revenue. Although the K12 business stopped, the revenue of K12 education decreased by 19.7%during the period, which is still the company's total revenue.

According to the company, New Oriental Online continues to change its strategic center to adjust the four business lines and services. During the reporting period and foreseeable future, the company's business includes five categories: university education, overseas examination, institutional cooperation, live business business, and education intelligent hardware products.

People in the industry predict that after the successful selection of Oriental, New Oriental Online will still invest in this field for a long time. On the recruitment website, Oriental Selection is recruiting bilingual anchors, English anchors, Douyin customer service, short video editors, operating director and other jobs, and has issued a monthly salary of 20,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan for these positions.

At the same time as online Oriental Online's stock price rose sharply, a number of educational stocks also ushered in general rising. From June 10th to 20th, New Oriental-S, Tianli Education, Thinking of Le Education, Dou Shen Education, and Angli Education increased by 23.9%, respectively. 61.11%, 41.26%, 112.3%, 21.11%

From the perspective of the broader market, the education sector (BK0740) increased by more than 26.4%in one month from May 17 to June 16.

China Merchants Securities International Research Report pointed out that the recent stock price of the teaching and training industry has rebounded sharply (125%has rebounded since May 1). The reorganization costs caused by most business adjustments have been reflected in the second half of the 21st year, so 2022 will start with a new start.

The transformation of multiple companies has results

In front of the East, the selection of Zhuyu, naturally, naturally attracted imitation from other teaching and training institutions. The bean god education, known as the "first shares of the Chinese Division Training", is the first. Since October last year, Chairman Dou Xin has led core members to publish short videos to share literary and historical knowledge on platforms such as Douyin. So far, although Dou Shen education has hatched multiple accounts, there are not many viewers of Dou Shen's live broadcast room. For example, Dou Xin, with 1.23 million fans,@例 例 例 Live Room, in a live broadcast on June 23, the maximum number of online people is 199, and three hours of sales of 70,000 yuan.

Bean God selected. Picture source: Douyin

On June 18, Dou Shen Education also launched the new account "Dou Shen Selection". In just one week, the account has been sucking 500,000 powder. At present, this account only publishes eight short videos, and the content mostly comes from the live content fragments of other accounts.

In addition to the live broadcast, the transformation path of education companies has a variety of transformation paths, including publishing, adult education, hardware and other directions.

Typical such as: good in the next 2021, the strategic direction of transformation, including quality education, publishing, smart education, hardware, hosting, overseas and other fields. Relying on the live broadcast book in 2021, the future publishing revenue is about 300 million yuan. Gao Tu set three transformation priorities: university and adult education, vocational education, quality education, and smart digital products (AI animation courses for teenagers) last year. Netease Youdao deployed the diversified direction of hardware and quality before dual reduction. At present, the focus of the transformation is hardware, quality, school, and adults. Among them, hardware has always been a long board for Netease. The head of education is directly renamed "Director's Smart". The SaaS Division was established to provide educational SaaS services around the scenes of teachers and students before class, online teaching, and parental interaction. Together, education technology transformed the school business, and deployed the case of "one education and one learning" in Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, and integrated into the local education system.

From the results, each transformation has also gained. Typical Rudai Youdao's smart hardware revenue in the first quarter increased by 25.4%year -on -year to 253 million yuan, accounting for 21%of the overall revenue. 82.1%and so on.

CITIC Securities Analyst Jiang Ya believes that the outbreak of the East selection recently has made us see the successful transformation of the teaching and Pei company. The reuse of the long -term accumulation of the education company and the ability to organize the organization. It is gradually reflected that it is expected to contribute well in the future.

The Guotai Junan Research News pointed out that leading companies are in full cash, and currently transform mainly around vocational education, quality education, hardware, live broadcasts and goods; The incubation period, but the starting volume release after the business model runs is worth looking forward to.

Industry valuation repair

According to the statistics of China Merchants Securities International, from mid -May to mid -June, the educational leader New Oriental and the future market value of the future are 62%and 40%compared to the recent report of the net cash. And 10%.

Compared with the proportion of net cash discounts, the proportion of net cash is significantly reduced, and the prospects of operating cash are better. The industry leader valuation is being repaired.

CICC believes that at present, various teaching and training companies are sufficient in cash, and most companies' market value is lower than its cash value. At present, it is generally underestimated. The valuation of the education company is expected to repair the value of the assets.

Huaxi Securities is also optimistic about the deep logic behind the transformation of education companies. They believe that the explosion of the New Oriental Live Platform is not a short -lived, and it has an inseparable relationship with the policy logic behind it. Under the economic number of the country's steady progress, the key reform of the platform's economic reform has been completed, and the platform economy has entered a period of normalized supervision. The platform economy has developed healthily and steadily, and the digital economy will enter the era of comprehensive flowering.

On the other hand, although the K9 business is stagnant, the needs of education and teaching in more fields are outbreak.

According to public reports, in April and May this year, the national urban survey unemployment rates were 6.1%and 5.9%, respectively. Among them, the unemployment rate of employment subjects in the age of 16-24 in May was 18.4%; the unemployment rate of employment subjects in the ages of 25-59 was 5.1%, and the unemployment rate of survey unemployment in 31 large cities and towns was 6.9%.

In the context of huge employment pressure, gaining higher skills or education through vocational education and training is one of the effective ways to solve the problem of individual and social employment. Essence

According to the monitoring data of the Big Database "Electric Digital Treasure" of the Internet, the number of online vocational education financing in China in 2021 was 38, with a financing amount of 6.193 billion yuan, and the amount of financing in 2020 was 15, with a financing amount of 1.71 billion yuan. The quantity or amount increased significantly. From January to April 2022, 53 companies in the education industry received financing and nearly half of them were vocational education companies.

Typical listed companies such as Chuan Zhi Education, Shangde Institution, and Dane Education have achieved dual growth in revenue and profit.

In addition, quality education, sports education, and aesthetic education for student groups are also rising.

Since last year, many places across the country have issued artistic subjects to the relevant guidance of the "middle school entrance examination". Wang Dengfeng, director of the Department of Sports and Art Education of the Ministry of Education, proposed at the press conference: Aesthetic education class should teach children to appreciate beauty, discover beauty, and also create beauty for students. Taking Mianyang City as an example, the city has taken the lead in implementing art subjects to enter the entrance examination since 2020. Among them, the discipline of music and art is the subject of the middle school entrance examination, and the two disciplines are 10 points, accounting for 2.2%of the total score of the middle school entrance examination. Students are tested through the operation of the machine, mainly examining students through school art courses and artistic practice activities to master art knowledge and cultivation of artistic literacy.

Wang Dengfeng said that in 2022, it will fully implement the aesthetic education entrance examination, and at the same time, the three subjects of sports, music, and art will be gradually incorporated into the scope of the middle school entrance examination, and the score value will be 100 points (the maximum art plus 50 points).

This also provides new possibilities for the transformation of education enterprises, a new and huge market demand is breeding.

Generally speaking, the education sector has been "returning blood" in the past half a month, which can be said to be one of the biggest good news in the education field in the past year.

However, it is also because in the early days of capitalization, the bubbles squeezed out of the education industry are more than other industries. After the bubble is squeezed out, the practitioners have time to start thinking about how to return to the nature of the service, to polish products and experiences in depth, and then make the company's value return.

Reference materials:

[1] "Logic behind the New Oriental Blasting Fire", Huaxi Securities

[2] "The Repairing of the Chinese Education and training industry at the time", China Merchants Securities International

[3] "Live E -commerce In -depth Series Five -Character changes or new opportunities", open source securities

[4] "Dialogue of the East Selection CEO Sun Dongxu: Do not build stars, treat the skyrocketing and plunge rationally", First Financial

*This article is based on public information, which is only used as information exchange, and does not constitute any investment suggestions

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