[Point stone into gold] "Ice Cream Assassin" is not the long -term way for the company

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Hot spots this week

Whose heart of "ice cream assassin" has cold?

Nike is not fragrant? The market value overnight has evaporated by more than 80 billion, and the stock price has reached a new low in the past two years

The risk of "hard landing" in the US economy has increased the US stocks in the second half of the year may fall into the "recession transaction"

Federal Reserve "radical" rate hike

Foreign exchange reserve continues to decline in Asian countries' stable exchange rate pressure increased sharply

Whose heart of "ice cream assassin" has cold?

According to the Workers' Daily, high -priced ice cream has discouraged ordinary consumers, becoming a hot topic this summer. At present, more and more ice cream is priced at more than 10 yuan. Among them, the ice cream of Hengshun vinegar industry is priced at 18 yuan, and the Moutai ice cream is priced at 59 yuan. Some ice creams have sold the ice cream to more than 100 yuan. Some survey data show that in the current market, ice creams over 10 yuan occupy half of the rivers and mountains.

Comments: This news disclosed that the gross profit margin of the ice cream industry is generally around 60%, and the gross profit margin of high -end ice cream is about 70%. Excessive profits show that the pricing of some ice cream companies does not meet the fair principles of market transactions, and high prices are imposed by enterprises to consumers. The ice cream market is competitive, and there is no phenomenon of high prices caused by corporate monopolies. The problem is on the Internet. As the news said, the high premium has made many companies join the hot ice tracks and launched net red ice cream. According to the definition of Baidu Encyclopedia, the Internet celebrity economy is represented by young and beautiful fashion masters, dominated by the taste and vision of the celebrities, and promotes visual promotion. Treating marketing, thereby turning fans into a process of purchasing power. It does not deny the role of the Internet economy, but its disadvantage is to rush. In order to adapt to the rapid changes of the Internet celebrity economy, the production and operation activities of enterprises must be highly flexible, and they have the ability to continuously adjust the product production line according to the situation and change products to become the norm. Obviously, it is difficult to do this. So, companies that only follow the Internet celebrity economy will be exhausted, how can they focus on long -term goals? Industry specializing in surgery. The way of success should be a long -term way.

Nike is not fragrant? The market value overnight has evaporated by more than 80 billion, and the stock price has reached a new low in the past two years

According to the Daily Economic News, as of June 28, Nike fell nearly 7%, and the market value evaporated by 12 billion US dollars a day, or about 80.5 billion yuan. Nike has lost the Chinese market for three consecutive quarters. As of the third fiscal quarter of February 28, 2022, Nike Dagua's revenue decreased by 5.2%year -on -year to US $ 2.16 billion. In fact, not only Nike, but another sports brand giant Adidas is also "frustrated" in Greater China. In 2021, Nike and Adidas' market share in China slipped to 40%(Nike 25.2%and Adidas 14.8%), breaking the pattern of 43%maintained from 2018 to 2020. The Anta Group increased to 16.2%, surpassing Adidas for the first time to the second place. The fourth place Li Ning's market share also rose to 8.2%.

Comments: International big -name products are not so popular in the Chinese market. New coronary pneumonia epidemic is just a short -term reason for their decline. Looking back at the process of these international big names entering the Chinese market, at the beginning, it was full of water, making it sound. But in the face of the Chinese market, they are so proud that they are even forgotten. In just a few years, I started to go downhill. Recently, there are reports that HM, an internationally renowned fashion retail giant and Swedish fashion company HM in China. The main reason is that HM Overseas official website stated that HM did not cooperate with any clothing manufacturing plant in Xinjiang or purchased products/raw materials from the region. These big names from Western countries forgotten their ancestors, and regarded the teachings of the old ancestors at that time, to take consumers as God as God. They followed Western politicians, saying things about Xinjiang cotton, hurting Chinese consumers and violating the sovereignty of Chinese consumers. How can such companies fall?

The risk of "hard landing" in the US economy has increased the US stocks in the second half of the year may fall into the "recession transaction"

According to the Securities Daily, after the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes in June, the logic of US stock trading quickly switched from high inflation and rapid tightening to weak growth, and investors' concerns about economic recession significantly heated up. At present, two of the three major stock indexes have entered a technology bear market. Whether U.S. stocks have entered a decline have become the topic of investors' close attention. In June, the US consumer confidence index fell to the lowest point since 16 months. The latest research report of Soochow Securities mentioned that according to the Fed's interest rate hike track, the probability of "soft landing" in the US economy is only 10%, and the possibility of "hard landing" is about 80%. The latest research report of CICC shows that under the common effect of high bases, high costs, high inventory, high interest rates and weak demand, US economic growth and corporate profitability have been slowed down, and it will continue to fall, and there is quite a possibility of recession.

Comments: The reality in front of the world is that the GDP (GDP in China) in the first quarter of the United States has experienced negative growth. The definition of economic recession is that GDP has slowed down for two consecutive quarters, and inflation has declined. Whether the economic recession has arrived, data in the second quarter has attracted much attention. Over the past century, a total of 17 economic recessions have occurred in the United States. Among them, 10 times are mild decline, and the GDP decreases below 3%; 7 times are deep decline, and GDP drops more than 3%. According to the historical laws of these 17 economic recessions, mild decline is often caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes; deep decline is mainly caused by the mistakes of financial institutions. If the economic growth of the United States continues this historical law, there are two main points in the U.S. economic situation: First, the Fed's interest rate hike is increasing, and the negative GDP growth occurs. The possibility of mild economic recession is greater. Second, if financial institutions cannot correctly restrain their investment behavior, the risk of deep economic recession will increase. At this time, we should pay more attention to the trend of the US financial situation. Federal Reserve "radical" rate hike

According to China News Weekly, in the face of the "impossible triangle" of inflation, economic growth, and currency tightening, compared with economic growth, curbing inflation has become the primary goal of the Federal Reserve. For a period of time, the market is concerned that the Fed may not solve the current supply constraint and control inflation, and has to "sacrifice" economic growth to curb inflation, and repeat Paul Walker in the early 1980s. Great recession. However, in his speech, Powell emphasized the subjective willingness to actively guide the decline of non -Federal Reserve, and its economic prediction does not think that the United States will fall into decline in the next two years, reflecting that the Federal Reserve believes that the US economy "soft landing" is not impossible.

Comments: Is the Fed Chairman a high IQ? The Federal Reserve is also composed of mortals. As far as the accuracy of economic prediction is concerned, they have no place. When the signs of economic recession appeared in 2007, the Fed did not bow its head in front of reality until the second year. From the perspective of historical laws, from 1983 to before this round of interest rate hikes, the Fed raised a total of 6 rounds. The first round (March 1983-August 1984), the second round (March 1988-May 1989), and the sixth round (December 2015-December 2018) to suppress inflation A certain effect. The third round (February 1994-February 1995) triggered the Asian financial crisis. The fourth round (June 1999-May 2000) caused the network bubble to break and induce economic recession. After the fifth round (June 2004-June 2006), the subprime crisis broke out directly and led to the global financial crisis. It seems that the macroeconomic effect of the Fed's interest rate hike is half a good or bad. In fact, its main effect is to create an economic crisis. From the perspective of the impact on the people of the United States, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes have harmed the economic interests of the people: first, high interest rates promote rising house prices and aggravate the burden of repayment of mortgage loans; second, cause losses to pensions. The characteristic of the US retirement system is to incorporate pensions into financial market management. The stock market fluctuations caused by high interest rates affect the benefits of pension funds. It can be seen that the Fed's interest rate hike is not a good thing for the US economy and the American people.

Foreign exchange reserve continues to decline in Asian countries' stable exchange rate pressure increased sharply

According to the 21st Financial APP, on the other hand, the currency exchange rate of the country has continued to renewal, and the other is that foreign exchange reserves continue to decline. Data show that as of June 17, the Thai foreign exchange reserves fell to $ 221.4 billion, the lowest value in the past two years; Indonesian foreign exchange reserves hovered around $ 135.7 billion, the lowest value since November 2020; South Korea and India Foreign exchange reserves also fell to US $ 449.3 billion and US $ 601.4 billion, respectively, and touched the lowest points in the past year. The decline in foreign exchange reserves constitutes a new challenge to stabilize the domestic currency exchange rate in Asian countries. Last week, the Philippine Peso has set a low point in the past 16 years.

Comments: The Fed ’s interest rate hike is not a good thing for the US economy and the American people, and it is even more bad for the world. The content of this news is reminiscent of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The starting point of the crisis is a financial attack initiated by the devaluation of Thailand's big capital in Thailand. At present, the United States is facing the risk of stagnation, and the spillover effect of the US economy has emerged. While affecting the exchange rate of Asian countries, the harm to Latin American countries cannot be underestimated. It is reported that the impact of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes has sprayed to Latin American countries in 2022. The "hegemony status" of the US dollar has led to the passive followers of state central banks such as Latin America, and the fiscal policy with weaker interest rates and stacked interest rates will slow down the Latin American economy. In the 1980s, the Fed raised interest rates, and high interest rates increased the debt burden of Latin American countries, and the debt crisis occurred. The possibility of the US economic situation and policy adjustment should be closely focused on the economic crisis in the world.

(Writing and reviewing Hou Ruoshi) (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

"Point Stone Gold" No. 588. This article was selected by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute. The copy of the work produced by the selected work, the copyright of the work, is not authorized by any unit or individual. The views involved in the selected content only represent the original author and do not represent the view of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei.

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