American inflation cools down?How to get in the second half of the year of the international gold price fell below the 1800 US dollars

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Tang Jing Beijing report

On July 1, the international gold price fell below the important psychological barrier of $ 1,800 again, a new low since May 16th; the international silver was a thousand miles, and it fell below the $ 20 integer mark in the day, the first time since July 2020.

On the news, American inflation showed signs of cooling. The US core PCE price index announced on May 20:30 rose 4.7%year -on -year, a new low since November last year, up 0.3%month -on -month, lower than expected. The core PCE price index eliminating the fluctuating food and energy prices is an important basis for the Fed to formulate monetary policy.

Is the decline in gold prices temporarily adjusted or the next round of upsurge? Some experts pointed out to reporters that the pricing logic of gold at the moment is the American nominal interest rate and inflation race, but this rate difference is difficult to predict.

The reporter's interview found that regarding the trend of gold in the second half of the year, the two factions appeared very different from the market: one is the Federal Reserve's accelerated interest rate hikes to suppress the gold trend, the other is the inevitable decline in the United States, and gold will rise again.

See multi -faction: American economic recession Lido Gold

The logic of the bulls is that the US economy will inevitably slide from the stasis period to the recession period, and gold is an excellent tool for hedging risk of recession.

Xu Ying, an analyst of Dongzhi Futures precious metal analyst, said that the Fed's radical interest rate hike suppressing demand to fight inflation has increased the risk of economic hard landing. The expected duration of this round of interest rate hikes is expected. Policy expectations will be fundamentally reversed. The current US bond yield is likely to be peaked, and the support of the spread of the spreads of the US dollar has weakened. Gold will usher in the dawn after the suppression of strong US dollars and high interest rates. In addition, geopolitical risks still exist, and the process of giving against the globalization continues. Gold has both physical assets and credit currency hedging attributes, which is higher than that of other assets.

Xu Ying believes that in the post -epidemic era, the consequences of large -scale fiscal stimulus in the United States cannot be completely resolved by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and the gold price center will move upwards. It is expected that the bottom of London is around 1,800 US dollars/ounce, and the high point will look at $ 2075/ounce. The inner plate of gold can still hedge the risk of depreciation of the RMB, and the operating range of Shanghai gold is 390-440 yuan/gram.

Well -known investment bank Zhongjin also holds a similar point of view. CICC said in the article "Outlook for the Outlook for the Outlet of the Big Assets in the second half of the 2022" that it is recommended that the super -equipped gold is recommended because gold can hedge inflation and increase risk at the same time. Looking forward, the main line of the market may be switched from "stagnation transactions" to "recession trading", but the point of switching is not sure, and should be assigned in these two environments that may have better performance assets. From the perspective of logical deduction, stagflation and recession environment is relatively unfavorable to stock assets, but it is relatively beneficial to gold. Energy and other commodity assets and bond assets are completely opposite in these two environments.

Short -to -see: The actual interest rate still has room for upward

There are two main logic of the shortness. One is that the high inflation that supports gold prices will eventually fall, and the other is that the current gold price is not fully included in the Fed's expected expectations.

Galaxy Futures Walle Metal Analyst Hang Jing said to the 21st Century Economic Herald reporter that the fluctuations of gold prices are more essentially depending on the strength of the actual interest rate in the United States. It is slightly one -sided to determine that the trend of gold prices is determined only by factors such as interest rate hikes or decline. Only when the actual interest rate begins to weaken, and even when the positive turns to the negative, the price of precious metals will strengthen significantly. The actual interest rate can be regarded as a game between nominal interest rates and inflation.

In case Jing pointed out that the current Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is expected to be strong, but precious metals have not fallen sharply, because the high inflation is supporting the price of gold. In the future, the decline in the United States is inevitable. If the loose cycle has not been restarted, the liquidity problem brought by the Fed's continuous interest rate hike will still drag gold downside. By then, cash may be the real darling of the market.

In case Jing believes that the probability of inflation in the second half of the year will fall. At that time, regardless of whether the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike is accelerating or slowing, the support of gold prices will be loosened, and a little pressure will continue to decline. Therefore, under the current fundamental situation, the possibility of golden shock is more likely. The inner plate of gold also depends on the RMB exchange rate. The strong dollar will make the inner market obviously stronger than the outer disk.

Although Nanhua Futures Metal Analyst Xia Yingying was also empty in the golden trend of the second half of the year, she believes that high inflation will continue for a period of time. The main expected Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectation is mainly to suppress the price of gold. She predicts that with the marginal ease of market disturbance in the second half of the year, precious metal transactions will start around the U.S. Fed's interest rate hike expectations and stagflation and even recession risks under the pressure of high inflation. Under the expectations of U.S. inflation may continue to reach a new high in the third quarter, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expects or continues to increase slightly. The trend of precious metals in the third quarter is expected to be under pressure. Silver trend is expected to weaken gold. But this may provide a more ideal opportunity for the medium and long -term precious metal bull market. In the third quarter, U.S. Gold is expected to run in the 1700-1900 range, whitening silver runs in the 18-24 range.

Long -term bulls still occupy the upper hand

However, even the analysts of the gold trend in the second half of the year have maintained the view of the middle and long lines to see more gold.

Xia Yingying believes that even if Gold has a recovery under the expected increase in the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike, the roomback space is very limited. First of all, the Fed further radicals to tighten the space for monetary policy. Secondly, although the expected increase in interest rate hikes will impact the price of precious metals in the short term, the amplitude and continuity should be cautious. A typical example is that the Federal Reserve raising interest rates driven by high inflation driven by high inflation since the second half of last year did not form the essence of gold. Third, the risk of economic recession in the third quarter may be limited, and in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve monetary policy is expected to turn. From the perspective of inflation solutions in the United States, inflation and falling are usually accompanied by the decline of the US economic decline and an increase in unemployment. If the US economy falls into stagnation, precious metals may soon usher in long cows; if the Fed's anti -inflation is determined, it is difficult for the US economy to be alone, but the interest rate reduction in the later stages of decline will still be profitable. In addition, the central bank's demand for gold purchase will provide new growth points for gold consumption. Finally, under the re -balance of the world's geopolitical structure, geographical risks still exist, which will bring potential benefits to precious metals.

Analysts generally believe that investors with medium and long -term asset allocation do not have to pay too much attention to the temporary callback of gold.

Luo Liang, a valuable metal analyst at CITIC, told reporters that with the slowdown of the US economy, inflation and employment data will decrease to a certain extent. In this context, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to be tight and loose, and the suppression of gold will be strong and weaker, and the gold price performance will be weaker and then strong. If the US economy has a significant decline in the later period, the Fed will stop raising interest rates, then gold will strengthen significantly.

Shi Jialiang, a precious metal analyst at Founder, also believes that the gold will fall first and then rise. He bluntly stated that the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and the prices brought about by the ease of geopolitical situation fell in the short term, and will not change the long -term multi -headed trend of the variety of gold. In the middle and long term, the acceleration tightening of the Fed's monetary policy will gradually be fully priced. The value of the gold allocation of hedging economic downward, inflation, and the risk of black swan is still high. For investors with medium and long -term asset allocation, they should consider doing more when they borrow gold.

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