Asset -liability ratio is as high as 227.8%!When can this company just listed profitable?

As of July 4th, the fast dog taxi was closed at HK $ 11.2 per share, which was nearly half compared to HK $ 21.50/share issuance.

"Investment Times" researcher Lu Gong

Fast Dog Taxi Holdings Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as fast dog taxi, 02246.HK), which has just been listed for a week, the current stock price has fallen by more than 40 % compared to the issue price.

On June 24, Kuaou taxi officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first freight in the same city. The public issuance price of the stock is HK $ 21.50 per share. On the day of listing, the stock price of fast dogs rose, and the increase in the market once reached 7%. However, on the same day, the company's stock price turned after the HK $ 23.15/share, and fell below the issue price. On the same day, it closed at HK $ 16.72 per share, with a closing of more than 22%.

During the following five trading days, the price of fast dog taxi continued to fall. As of July 4th Hong Kong stocks closed, the company closed at HK $ 11.2/share. Compared with the issue price of HK $ 21.50/share, the decline has reached 47.9 %.

In terms of business, according to the prospectus information, from 2018 to 2021, the total increasing trend of fast dog taxi revenue increased from 453 million yuan in 2018 to 661 million yuan in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of about 9.91%. The cumulative income was 2.193 billion yuan. However, the company has been in a loss in terms of profitability, and its cumulative losses have reached nearly 2.786 billion yuan during the four -year period.

Regarding the continuous losses of performance, fast dog taxis said in the prospectus that because the logistics business in the same city is still in the initial stage, the company makes a lot of investment to promote business growth, which is essential for building a strong competitive advantage to achieve business growth. At the same time, the company also stated that considering the business investment plan, the company is expected to continue to lose losses as of the year ended 2022, 2023 and 2024.

When can you turn a profit?

"Investment Times" researcher noticed that the logistics market can be divided into intercity logistics markets and the same city logistics market. Among them, the same city logistics market refers Enterprises, small and medium -sized enterprises and individuals.

In recent years, thanks to the significant growth of economic development, Asian urbanization rate, e -commerce penetration rate, and mobile payment penetration rates, according to the total transaction calculation, the market size of the logistics market in Asia has increased from US $ 309.5 billion in 2017 to In 2021, 422.9 billion U.S. dollars, and it is expected to further increase in 2026 to US $ 658 billion; while the market size of the same city logistics market in Mainland China increases from 893.1 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in 2017 to 1319.9 billion in 2021 Yuan, it is expected to continue to increase to 2300.8 billion yuan in 2026.

With the rapid growth of the domestic economy, the increase in urbanization rate, the scale of mobile Internet users and online payment users have gradually become large, the aforementioned factors have jointly promoted the improvement of logistics penetration in the same city, from 0.6%in 2017 to 2021 4.5%, it is expected to be further increased to 19.8%in 2026. From this point of view, the market and prospects of fast dog taxi are more considerable.

Judging from the position of fast dog taxi in the market, the online logistics market in Mainland China is highly concentrated. According to the total transaction volume in 2021, the five major market participants account for about 64.9%of the total market share. Among them, fast dog taxis It ranks third, with market share 3.2%. Lalamove and Didi freight ranked first and second in market share of 52.8%and 5.5%, respectively.

In terms of market development prospects and market positions, fast dogs have certain advantages. But from the company's business data, its current situation does not seem optimistic.

According to the exponential prospectus data, from 2018 to 2021, the operating income achieved by fast dog taxi was 453 million yuan, 549 million yuan, 530 million yuan, and 661 million yuan, which showed a growth trend. At the same time, the company was in the company in the company. In terms of profitability, the company's equity holders have been losing money at the same time. , 33.5%, 124.1%, and 132.1%, a cumulative loss of nearly 2.786 billion yuan, which is 1.27 times the total revenue.

Not only that, fast dog taxi also revealed the signal that will continue to lose. In the prospectus, the company stated that "Considering the business investment plan, we expect at least the year ended 2022, 2023 and December 31, 2024, and the year ended December 31, 2024, the year ended the year ended for the year ended ended in December 31st, still It will continue to cause losses. "This also means that at least in the next three years, fast dogs still cannot reverse the current situation of continuous losses and achieve profitability.

The liability ratio far exceeds the "security red line"

In response to the long -term increasing increasing income, and the loss of losses after the same year -on -year, some people in the industry analyzed that this may not be related to the high cost of taxi at fast dogs.

It is reported that the sales and marketing expenses of fast dog taxi mainly include employee welfare expenses, promotion and advertising costs of sales and marketing staff, and rewards to trading users (reward to the consignor's stickiness to the company's platform).

Data disclosed that from 2018 to 2021, the company's sales and marketing costs generally decreased, respectively, 524 million yuan, 296 million yuan, 195 million yuan, and 335 million yuan, but from 2021, the part of this part accounted The proportion of the total income of fast dog taxi still exceeds 50%, reaching 50.7%. During the above year, as a high marketing expenditure expenditure, the investment in R & D in fast dog taxi is relatively low, and the overall decreased trend is only 76 million yuan, 65 million yuan, 35 million yuan and 35 million yuan, accounting When the company's income was the highest, it only reached 16.8%in 2018, while the proportion of fast dog taxi sales and marketing expenses accounted for 115.7%of the year's revenue.

By 2021, the company's R & D expenses accounted for the income of the year, which had further dropped to 5.3%. In this regard, the industry has a point of view that fast dogs take a taxi or have entered the "heavy marketing, light development" route.

However, it is worth mentioning that the fast dog taxi stated in the prospectus that it will continue to invest in the technical capabilities of the platform to improve efficiency and user satisfaction. The absolute amount of R & D expenses is expected to increase with the growth of the company's business. In the next three years, the company is expected to focus on the research and development plan to improve the user experience and upgrade mobile applications; by improving algorithms and enhancing big data capabilities, improving transaction efficiency and optimizing the matching process.

In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the current debt status of fast dog taxis. According to the exponential prospectus data, in 2021, the total liabilities of fast dog taxi have reached nearly 3.7 billion yuan, and the company's cash and cash equivalents at the same time were only 313 million yuan, even less than one -tenth of the total liabilities. At the same time, the asset -liability ratio of fast dog taxis is as high as 227.82%, which also means that the company's current total debt has far exceeded the recognized 70%of the security red line.

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