News analysis: The price of pigs in the market does not have the basis for continued to rise sharply

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 6th News Analysis: The price of pigs in the market does not have the basis of continued to rise significantly

Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and An Bei

In the case of the overall and pork consumption, the price of pigs has recently risen excessively. At a symposium held by the National Development and Reform Commission on the 6th, experts said that the current pork production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, and the price of pigs in the market does not have the basis of continuous rise.

According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center, the average national pig appearance price in the 5th week of June was 9.56 yuan per catty, an increase of 11.7%month -on -month, a cumulative increase of 46.4%from late March, an increase of 12.7%from the beginning of the year. 17.3%.

The price of pork has risen since mid -April. According to monitoring, as of the 5th week of June, pork prices rose within 0.2%daily. On July 5th, the retail price of pork in 36 large and medium -sized cities was 17.85 yuan per catty, an increase of 22%from the low point during the year.

Experts believe that the recent rapid rise in domestic pigs in China is mainly due to the phenomenon of irrational boasters and secondary fattening of the market. Some media, especially self -media, fabricated and spread the price increase information, and rendered the price increase atmosphere. Marketing mood.

"The industry generally reflects that since the rise of pig prices at the end of March, pig farms (households) are generally optimistic about the market market, supplementary fences, fences and secondary fattening. Rising rapidly, the breeding fences have been further increased, and some farmers have reported that some places have also occurred in the case of secondary fertilizer struggle to rob the slaughter source. Zhou Lin said.

Liu Zhicheng, director of the Research Office of the Market and Price Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that some breeding companies have only completed 90%of the columns in June. Recently, a large number of secondary fertilizers have been carried out.

"Recently, a large -scale heavy rainfall weather has appeared in the country, and pigs in some areas have poor transportation. The difficulty of slaughtering companies to collect pigs has also pushed up the price of pigs. In the first half of the year, pork imports have decreased significantly. "Zhou Lin said.

The key to the future trend of pigs depends on whether there is guarantee for supply. At present, the fundamentals of pork supply and demand do not support pig prices to rise sharply.

"The industry often says‘ there is a mother who do n’t worry about small, there is a little bit of worry ’, as long as the sow can stabilize, the supply of pigs will be guaranteed." Zhou Lin said.

Zhou Lin said that in the fourth quarter of last year, the amount of sow can be slightly more than the green and reasonable area where the pig production capacity regulated. From January to May this year, the number of sows in the country can continue to be in green and reasonable areas, indicating that in the second half of this year and next year next year The pork market supply in the first quarter is guaranteed.

"During the upsurge of pig prices, the sale of farms (households) pressure fences will only affect the listing of pork in the short term, leading to the increase in the weight of the pig's pork body, the lag of pork lag, and the" pig no meat increase "situation. Relatively increased, it plays a certain 'peak -cutting' for pig prices. "Zhou Lin said.

Zheng Lili, general manager of Yongyi Consulting, said that recently farmers have the willingness to have a column, and pork in the early stamping fences will be sold one after another. It is expected that from July to August, the price of pigs will fluctuate back.

According to Liu Zhicheng, from the perspective of market demand, from July to August, the weather was still hot and still in the off -season of pork consumption. From the cost of breeding, the price of pig feed at the end of June had fallen to 3.54 yuan per kilogram, and the price of pigs rose sharply.

In response to the recent rapid rise in the price of pigs, the National Development and Reform Commission actively responded and punched punching, and clearly adopted effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. , Strictly punish illegal acts such as placing prices and prices, raising prices, etc., maintain normal market order, and promote the long -term healthy development of the industry.

"It is recommended that related enterprises strengthen the industry's self -discipline, take the lead in doing a good job of stable and stable prices in the pig market, maintain the rhythm of normal outlets, unintentionally rendering the price increase atmosphere, create panic, and guide the market to return to reason and return to normal." Liu Zhicheng said.

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