What signals do the central bank have carried out 3 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for 3 consecutive days?

Reporter Liu Qi

After the 10 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase operation on July 1, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") did not continue the rolling rhythm of 10 billion yuan in the past. From July 6th), 3 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, which is also the lowest repurchase operation scale since January 27, 2021. At the same time, in view of July 1st to July 6th, a total of 370 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expiration, so as of July 6, the central bank achieved a total of 351 billion yuan in net recovery at the beginning of the month.

In this regard, the bond market has a strong response. On July 4, the Treasury Bond Futures closed up the entire line, of which 10 -year Treasury Futures Contract (T2209) fell 0.24%, and the 5 -year Treasury Futures main contract (TF2209) fell 0.27%. Active Treasury Active Coupons up to 2.25 basis points to 2.8475%.

From the perspective of analysts, the central bank has continuously carried out the scale of 3 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, which does not mean that liquidity will be tightened. For liquidity, it should pay more attention to the change of "price" rather than "quantity".

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that he should not pay too much attention to the scale of the central bank's operation, but also pay more attention to interest rates, that is, "price" is more important than the signal of "quantity". The current DR007 (7 -day repurchase interest rate for pledges with interest rate bonds as a pledge of interest rate debt) level is far lower than the 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate. Variety.

According to Oriental Fortune CHOICE data, as of 15:00 on July 6, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 was 1.5685%, and its weighted average interest rate in the past 5 days was 1.6877%, which was significantly lower than the current 7 -day reverse repurchase operation rate (2.1%) Essence

"The current economy is in the process of recovery, but the kinetic energy is weak, so there is no need to tighten liquidity significantly. In addition, this releases the signal of the central bank's‘ do n’t engage in big water. ”Wu Chaoming added.

Li Chao, chief economist of Zhejiang Business Securities, believes that the focus of the central bank's public market operation is that the "price" is not "quantity". The core reason for the smaller operation scale is that the inter -bank system at the beginning of the season is reasonable and abundant, the funding gap and liquidity needs Not big, it does not mean that the central bank tighten liquidity.

In fact, the central bank pointed out in the first quarter of 2021 in the first quarter of 2021 that "the market should focus on the open market operation interest rates, medium -term borrowing convenience rates such as interim borrowing, and other policy interest rates, as well as market benchmark interest rates when observing the open market operation of the central bank, as well as market benchmark interest rates The operation of the operation within a period of time should not be excessively paid attention to the number of central bank operations to avoid excessive interpretation of monetary policy orientation. "

In addition, CFETS-NEX RMB capital emotional index (index increasing from 0 to 100, 50 is equilibrium, and more than 50 reflects capital tensions), which reflects the tightening of the tightening of the bank's currency It rose to 65 at 16:00, the highest level in June. At 8:45 on July 1st, it fell to 50 at 8:45. Then most of the time was below 50, which reflected that the tension state at the end of the half -year of the bank's inter -bank currency market was in early July in early July in early July Easy to ease.

In Li Chao's view, the current monetary policy is still based on stable growth and employment as the primary goal, maintaining a slightly loose policy tone, and the core is still widely credit.

Wu Chaoming believes that the monetary policy in the second half of the year needs to be balanced in the multiple goals of employment, stabilizing prices and stable exchange rates. It is expected that the total tone will maintain stability and looseness, focusing on broad credit, and focus on structural policy tools and stabilize real estate financing. And cooperate with fiscal force to support credit expansion.

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