Zhu Baoliang: my country's industrial upgrading and new momentum growth and growth trend has not changed

On June 23, the monthly judgment meeting of the Bozhi Macro Forum hosted by the China Development Research Foundation was held online and offline. speech.

Analysis of economic situation in the first half of 2022

From January to February 2022, my country's economy began. The impact of multiple factors is superimposed. The Chinese economy has fallen in March and has entered a trough in April. Since late May, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, my country's economy has begun to bottom out.

The first is that industrial production has picked up. my country's industrial production has fallen from March, and has decreased by 2.9%in April. In May, enterprises' resumption of work and re -production continued to advance, and industrial production has rebounded. In May, industries above designated size increased by 0.7%year -on -year. From January to May, my country's industry increased 3.3%. The service industry was affected by the epidemic situation. The production index increased negatively from March, a year -on -year decrease of 6.1%year -on -year, and a 5.1%decrease in May. From January to May, the production of the service industry decreased by 0.7%.

The second is that demand begins to recover. The consumer demand was weak, and the retail sales of social consumer goods increased significantly from March, a year -on -year decrease of 11.1%year -on -year, and continued to decrease by 6.7%in May. From January to May, the retail sales of consumer goods in my country fell by 1.5%. Investment is generally stable. From January to May, the investment in fixed assets increased by 6.2%year-on-year, of which manufacturing increased by 10.6%, infrastructure investment increased by 6.7%, but real estate investment increased negatively. Exports remain tough. After the export of exports dropped sharply in April, foreign trade and logistics gradually improved after May, the production of foreign trade enterprises resumed, the early period of backlog foreign trade orders released, and the growth rate of exports of goods rose. From January to May, my country's exports increased by 11.4%, deducting price factors, and the export volume increased by about 1%. Affected by domestic demand, my country's imports have grown slowly, and imports increased by 4.7%in January to May. After deducting price factors, the actual imports decreased by 8%.

The third is the overall improvement of employment. The economic operation has gradually resumed, and the employment situation has improved. After the urban survey unemployment rate has risen continuously this year, it has declined in May. The national urban survey unemployment rate is 5.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Fourth, the price is basically stable. Insufficient consumer demand and the common role of market preservation and prices, from January to May, consumer prices of residents rose 1.5%year-on-year, and the core price of food and energy rose 1.1%year-on-year. The production prices of industrial products rose 8.1%. Although they were still at a high level, the year -on -year and month -on -month increases narrowed monthly.

Fifth, structural optimization and upgrading continue. The trend of my country's industrial upgrading and development and the growth of new kinetic energy has not changed. The development of high -tech industries is better. In May, the added value of high -tech manufacturing industry increased by 4.3%year -on -year, significantly higher than the growth of industries above designated size. From January to May, investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 24.9%, maintaining a rapid increase. The industrial green transformation and development continued, and the output of new products such as new energy vehicles and solar batteries continued to grow at a high speed.

Sixth, the region with a large impact on the epidemic has been accelerated. With the gradual control of the epidemic and the efforts of the stable growth policy, the re -production of enterprises has accelerated, and the production of the Yangtze River Delta region and the Northeast region with a large impact on the epidemic in the early stage has improved significantly. In May, the added value of industries above designated size in the Yangtze River Delta and the Northeast region decreased by 3.2%and 1.1%year -on -year, respectively, and the decrease was about 10 percentage points narrowed from the previous month.

2. The risks and challenges faced by economic recovery

At present, the new crown pneumonia is the biggest uncertain factors affecting the economy. In the analysis of the current economic situation, we must try to distinguish the impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic on the economy and the impact of the impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic policy on the economy. The impact of the epidemic itself includes the economic impact of health damage and preventing diffusion; the impact of the impact of epidemic policies includes the impact of epidemic prevention and control policies and economic and social policies. In January 2020, the emergence of Wuhan's new crown pneumonia and the sudden outbreak of Omikon in March 2022 has a great impact on my country's economy, and the impact of 2020 far exceeds 2022. After the epidemic has been controlled and the policy of restoring economic and social development, my country's economy has recovered. However, from the occasion of the two major epidemics, there are four differences in the political, economic, social, and epidemic conditions facing my country. Employment and stability are facing great challenges.

First, the difficulty and cost of the epidemic prevention and control are different. Due to the increase in prevention and control, local government and departments will inevitably take epidemic prevention as the top priority of various tasks, and the management and control of abortion logistics will increase accordingly.

Second, the stage of my country's economic development is different. Before the outbreak of Wuhan outbreaks in January 2020, my country's economy was in the stage of stable growth. In order to cope with the Sino -US trade war, my country has strived to stabilize employment, stabilize finance, stabilizes foreign trade, stabilizes foreign capital, stabilizes investment, and stabilizes expectations, implements macro -control counter -cyclical adjustments, and greatly reduces taxes and fees. Yuan, the scale of local special debt is greatly increased, and my country's economic operation is stable. In January 2020, China and the United States signed the "Sino -U.S. First Stage Economic and Trade Agreement", which stabilized Sino -US economic and trade relations. The economic development environment at home and abroad is conducive to my country ’s response to the epidemic in 2020. From 2020 to 2021, my country has achieved huge success in the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. The average growth of the economy has increased by 5.1%in two years, which is at the world's leading level. However, since the second half of 2021, under the circumstances that the epidemic has not been fundamentally controlled, my country has introduced a series of policies such as preventing disorderly expansion of capital, real estate regulation, and energy conservation and emission reduction. After the various policies are completely correct but after superimposed, the effect of "synthesis fallacy" and "decomposition fallacy" effects on the economy has caused the demand for shrinking, supply impact, and weakening the triple pressure in the second half of 2021. Difficulty. The third is to deal with the macroeconomic policy of the impact of the epidemic. In April 2020, in order to cope with the new crown epidemic, my country proposed that residents' employment, basic people's livelihood, market subjects, food security security security, stable supply chain of the industry chain, and the "six guarantee" tasks operation of the sponsor layer have been implemented. Policies and relatively loose monetary policies have created fiscal and monetary policy tools of direct and direct enterprises, issuing anti -epidemic special Treasury bonds. And 28.8%. In 2022, the proportion of GDP in the broad financial fiscal deficit in my country was only 5.8%. From January to May 2022, the income of funds such as land transfer and other funds had a significant negative growth. The scale of currency credit and social financing is also slower than 2020.

Fourth, the international economic and political environment is significantly different. After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in 2020, countries around the world have launched unprecedentedly loose monetary policy and fiscal policies. The new crown vaccine has been developed and the vaccination rate has continued to increase. Since the third quarter of 2020, the world economy has rebounded, and the world economy has increased by 5.9%in 2021. From 2020 to 2021, my country's export volume increased by about 15%, and net exports contributed more than 20%to economic growth. Since 2022, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to a sharp rise in the price of commodities in the world, and the global inflation rate has continued to rise, reaching the highest level in 40 years. The monetary policy of large powers such as the United States has accelerated, and the world economy has begun to slow. The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund in April 2022, the world economy increased by about 3.6%in 2022. At the same time, the United States Union has formulated a "small courtyard high wall" strategy in the fields of science and technology, finance, investment, and talents, and has continuously delayed my country's scientific and technological innovation capabilities and industrial chain improvement. The external environment of my country's economic development is more severe and complex.

3. Basic economic judgment in the second half of 2022

With the control of the epidemic and the implementation of 33 measures for financial, finance, demand, supply, etc. on May 23, 2022, the State Council executive deployment of the State Council's stability of the economy will gradually recover.

The first is that consumption will be sluggish and insufficient recovery. Economic and employment uncertainty has increased, residents' income is expected to decrease, increased savings, reduced borrowing consumption, and affecting consumption capacity and willingness. In the first quarter of 2022, the central bank's urban reserve questionnaire survey "more savings percentage" set a new high since 2002. The actual debt repayment pressure of the Chinese family sector and suppress consumption power. In 2021, the debt balance/disposable income of the Chinese residential department was 140.3%, the repayment of interest rate/disposable income was 15.6%, and both debt repayment indicators were higher than that of the major developed countries such as the United States and Germany.

Second, the demand for real estate investment is still weak. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, various regions and departments have actively adjusted real estate related policies, supporting residential housing loan needs by reducing the interest rate of mortgage loans, reducing the proportion of down payment, loosening the purchase restriction policy, etc., through moderate relaxation of participation conditions, modifying the auction rules, and launching the launch More high-quality plots and other methods are given more profit margins to real estate companies in terms of land supply, but the cycle of "weak sales-difficulty-inadequate to get land-to-land-new speed-new speed-real estate investment fall" has not been broken.

The third is export deceleration. The downturn of global economic growth brings overseas demand cooling, the transfer of some exports in my country and industries to Vietnam, India and other regions will bring new pressure on China. It is not easy for my country's export volume to reach the world economic growth rate. Due to insufficient domestic demand, imports will slow down, but the level of net exports of goods and services will increase significantly from about 1.2%from 2020-2021.

Fourth, manufacturing investment is facing slowing pressure. The problems of core, coal shortage, and power shortage have not yet reached effective relief. Since the epidemic, the industrial chain supply chain is blocked, and the flow of people and logistics interrupted. The Russian -Ukraine conflict further exacerbated the cost impact of upstream industries, and the operation of small and medium -sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households is more difficult. With the gradual recovery of the industrial chain supply chain of various countries, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has brought about further globalization trends to further intensify and worry about economic security. The phenomenon of industrial relocation has occurred. Key components and key technology card neck problems are still severe. These supply problems and insufficient demand interaction will inhibit manufacturing investment. Fifth, government consumption and infrastructure investment should play an economic stabilizer. The government consumption will increase its economic support. The proportion of government consumption accounted for about 17%of my country's GDP. This year, the two sessions proposed that the national general public budget expenditure increased by 8.4%, which was significantly higher than the average level of 1.5%from 2020-2021, which can drive about 1.2 percentage points of my country's economic growth. Infrastructure investment will accelerate recovery, the central budget internal infrastructure investment expenditure increases, local government special bonds remain stable, support China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. to issue 300 billion yuan railway construction bonds and increase policy banks of 800 billion yuan in credit quota, and establish Key project list docking mechanism, the source of infrastructure construction funds is relatively sufficient. The 102 major projects of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" planned were implemented one after another, and nearly 40 special plans for various ministries and commissions were introduced one after another, and infrastructure projects were well guaranteed.

Sixth is the pressure of employment. The economic growth rate slows down, and new employment will slow down. After the impact of the epidemic, the "main force" of my country's "main force" of employment is not good, and the pressure on employment is still greater.

Seventh, inflation will rise mildly. Energy, metal, food and other global commodity prices are at a high level, and input inflation is still under pressure on my country's price rise. Domestic coal and chip supply gaps will continue for a period of time, and food prices such as food, pork, pork and other foods are already low. The new round of pig cycles may open in June and July 2022. Domestic demand is relatively sluggish, and prices still lack demand support. The rise in upstream raw material prices is difficult to completely transmit to the consumption end. Energy consumption dual -control policy adjustments and important commodity supply -stabilization policies such as coal and other important commodities have begun to show efficiency, and the overall increase in energy and raw material prices will fall. Considering that the price of raw materials in my country in 2021 is low and high, and the price of consumer goods is high and low, the price base effect will lead to high consumption prices in 2022, and the price of upstream raw materials will be high and low. It is expected that the consumer price of residents is expected to rise by about 2.5%, the core inflation of energy and food is deducted at about 1%, and the price of industrial product producers will rise by about 6%.

Fourth, policy recommendations

In accordance with the requirements of the Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of April 2022, accelerate the implementation of 33 measures for 6 aspects of the State Council Executive Meeting on May 23, and strive to make my country's economy achieve the expected growth goal in the second half of the year.

1. Stable expectation is the core. It is necessary to effectively protect property rights. The property rights system is the cornerstone of the socialist market economy. In order to protect the vitality and motivation of market entities, reduce uncertainty, and stabilize expectations. Promoting the healthy development of the platform's economy is the top priority to stabilize the market's expectations. It is necessary to complete the special rectification of the platform economy as soon as possible, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific policies to support the healthy development of the platform. According to the new characteristics of the epidemic mutation and spread, efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, in accordance with the requirements of the central government, we must adhere to the dynamic clearing policy and not hesitation, and stabilize the society's expectations of the prevention and control of the epidemic.

2. Fiscal policy is the main policy means. The planning of fiscal increase in planning should be accelerated to stabilize market expectations. Possible tools include issuing special government bonds, increasing fiscal deficit rates to issue ordinary government bonds, and new special debt quotas issued in 2023. The economic downturn and epidemic prevention of the fiscal revenue and expenditure expanded by more than 500 billion yuan. The land transfer revenue was significantly lower than the budget, and the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure increased. Considering that my country's fiscal expenditure and tax cuts are around 1.25. In order to stabilize the economy in the second half of 2022, it is recommended to expand 800 billion policy bank loan quotas and issue new special debt quotas in 2023 in advance. Then issue 1 trillion special Treasury bonds to ensure the guarantee of expenditure in key areas such as epidemic prevention, social security, employment, education, infrastructure, issue consumer coupons, and play a role in the traction of consumption on the economic cycle.

3. Monetary policy should cooperate with force. Compared with the price and exchange rate, monetary policy should pay more attention to economic growth and employment. As long as you do your own affairs, maintain stable economic growth, actively respond to the convenience of foreign -funded business businessmen, and establish the image of my country's responsible great power. The tightening of the global financial environment and the narrowing of Sino -US interests will not lead to the depreciation of the renminbi. Domestic demand shrinkage, reduced inflation pressure, rising commodity prices are caused by the impact of inputability and the impact of epidemic supply, and cannot be resolved through the tightening of monetary policy. Monetary policy needs to provide a loose liquidity environment for fiscal force, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. It is necessary to increase financial discount loans to small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Issue a stable loan, supporting specialized new small and medium -sized technology companies to stabilize and expand college graduates.

4. Focus on expanding domestic demand. Pulling consumer investment is better to play the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. It is recommended that the central government uses the issuance of anti -epidemic bonds to give residents who have a serious affected area to give residents to residents to residents. Residents' income and marginal consumption tendencies have driven private investment. Further suppress the responsibilities of local governments, and areas that are less affected by the epidemic, we must strive to achieve the local economic and social development goals. Moderate relaxation of the use of special bonds, improve the efficiency of special debt, and explore new channels for financial innovation as infrastructure financing. Monetary policy coordination reduces financing costs related to various infrastructure investment, and strives to stabilize infrastructure investment to 7%or even above. Due to the policy of the city, the support for rigidity and improving housing needs; optimize the supervision of pre -sale funds for commercial housing, and improve the flexibility of pre -sale funds through "key quota supervision" to allow excess funds other than the project to be available. Return to the development enterprise as soon as possible to accelerate the turnover of funds; implement reverse cycles for real estate supervision policies, moderately reduce the conditions of the "three red lines" and meet the period, and ensure that the capital chain of real estate companies will not break. 5. Stability is the main goal of a macro -control policy. It is necessary to stabilize the market to stabilize the market, and stabilize the market to stabilize employment, and further stabilize the economy. "Increase support for stabilization", increase the proportion of stabilized jobs of unemployment insurance in large enterprises, broaden the range of subsidies for the staying of unemployment insurance, and distribute one -time expansion of the job at a standard of not more than 1,500 yuan per person to recruit college graduates. Subsidies. It can also reduce the pressure of employment through the method of expansion. It is recommended to expand about 1.5 million people in undergraduate and vocational high enrollment this year, postpone employment, and strive to achieve the target of the unemployment rate within 5.5%.

6. Stabilize the price of energy and grain. The first is to do a good job of grain production to ensure the stable supply of domestic food harvest and important agricultural products. Coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and agricultural production, do a good job in the stability of agricultural capital and insurance, and protect and mobilize farmers to plant grain planting with special subsidies such as benefiting agricultural policies, timely issuing agricultural capital, supporting agricultural credit, and improving the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat. Putty. The second is to do a good job in energy guarantee and stable price. Release the advanced coal production capacity, implement the re -loan of coal clean production, and improve the efficiency of coal generator sets. Implement the credit support of carbon emission reduction support tools, and promote the construction of new energy power generation facilities. The third is to find opportunities in international economic and trade cooperation. If China and the United States can reduce some tariffs, it will help reduce China's input inflation pressure.

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