The Federal Reserve's June meeting 90 times mentioned that "inflation" may adopt a stronger policy

At 2 am (Beijing time) on July 7, the Fed announced the minutes of the Monetary Policy Conference (hereinafter referred to as the "Minister") in June. At this meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to raise 75 basis points at one time, the largest interest rate hike since 1994, in order to curb the inflation of the US high.

The "Minister" shows that the Federal Reserve officials support the discussion at the July interest rate interest rate interest rate hike, and the probability will be selected in 75 basis or 50 basis points.

The "Minister" also implies that the Fed's determination to suppress inflation has not shaken. Even if rapid interest rate hikes may slow down the US economic growth, the first -class task of the Federal Reserve is still to reduce the inflation rate to 2%. If the inflation is high, the Fed may still adopt a more "restricted" policy position.

"Securities Daily" reporter found that in the meeting of the Federal Reserve's announcement, found that in the short 12 -page document, the term "inflation" appeared 90 times, highlighting the determination of the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation.

The "Minister" mentioned that before the US CPI data was released in May, the market expectations in June and July were highly probably probably the probability of 50 basis points. But in May, CPI rose 8.6%year -on -year, setting a new high in nearly 40 years. The cost of consumption of energy and food, such as energy and food, has also risen rapidly. The market predicts that the interest rate hike in June and July will reach 75 basis points, and the prediction of the Fed's interest rate hike path will also increase.

"Participants were worried. In May, CPI data showed that the inflation pressure did not show a weakened trend, but made it more convinced that the inflation phenomenon would be more lasting than the duration of the previous expectations. The income group has brought great pressure. The price of food, gasoline, housing and other necessities has risen rapidly, and the ability of residents to bear the necessary living costs has decreased significantly. "The Ministry of Minister said.

The "Minister" stated that members of the meeting realized that suppressing inflation may lead to slowing economic growth in the United States and may also affect the employment market. However, the goal of falling in inflation to 2%is the key to ensuring continuous and full employment, and believes that the United States' economic prospects can withstand a tightening monetary policy.

It is worth noting that the "Minutes" announced this time did not mention the word "recession".

The Federal Reserve President Powell admitted that he participated in the Congress Senate Bank members in June that the economic recession in the United States was "of course a possibility". The Fed was unintentionally introduced to decline and was not expected to achieve. Subsequently, Powell also said when participating in the annual forums of the European Central Bank in Portugal that the US economy's "soft landing" channels have become increasingly narrowed.

Tian Lihui, dean of the Institute of Finance Development of Nankai University, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the "more restricted" position of the Federal Reserve's claim means that the Fed retains the possibility of suppressing inflation more powerful to suppress inflation. This includes the relatively continuously raised and more intense open market operations of the federal fund interest rates, and it is even likely that it is likely to consider using the legal reserve requirements of commercial banks to adjust this more influential market regulation tool.

The "Ministry of Ministry" also mentioned that Esther George, the Chairman of the Kansas Fed, was the only one of the 18 decision makers that did not support 75 basis points in June. She said that a large interest rate hike may cause more uncertainty.

Regarding the July rate hike resolution, many Federal Reserve officials and directors have spoken to support 75 basis points to continue to raise interest rate hikes, of which there are officials who are preferred to "pigeons", such as San Francisco Fed Chairman Dali. She said on July 1 that the federal fund interest rate is expected to be increased to 3.1%by the end of this year, and at the same time support 75 basis points in interest rate hikes in July. And Dali's previous discussion has always been "too fast interest rate hikes may damage the economy." In May, Dali still stated that the rating of 75 base points was not her main consideration.

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