Gold price, a sharp decline!

As the international capital market's concerns about the economic recession in Europe and the United States have intensified, recently, the price of commodity futures that are closely linked to the economic situation continued to decline, especially the plunge in international oil prices (detailed reports), which touched the hearts of countless consumers and investors' hearts. Essence

Recently, even the precious metal gold, which has always been strong, lost, and the price fell sharply.

01

International gold price

Turn around

It is understood that in the first half of the year, international gold prices rose first. In the first stage (early to mid -April), due to factors such as high inflation and international geographical conflicts of some economies of overseas economies, international gold prices have risen all the way; the second stage (mid -April to present), the Federal Reserve raises rate hikes, and the market has a strong tightening of the market. It is expected to increase, and the price of gold starts to turn down.

From the perspective of overseas markets, as of July 8th at 16:00 London's spot gold newspaper $ 1736/ounce, a cumulative decline in July exceeded 3.5%. This week, the spot gold in London fell to $ 1731.6 per ounce, a new low of nearly nine months. Since March this year set a high point of 2070.42 US dollars/ounce, London has continued to decline, with a maximum retracement of over 16%.

Why did international gold prices fall sharply? Some analysts pointed out that the main reason is that the recent Fed's tightening monetary policy. The strong interest rate hike expects to promote the appreciation of the US dollar and is favored by investment.

The World Gold Association pointed out that by analyzing the Fed's past four tightening cycles, it can be found that the US dollar index has significant negative correlation relationships with gold prices.

Recently, the US dollar index has risen to a 20 -year high of 107, which constitutes a heavy suppression of international gold.

In addition, in terms of physical gold demand, India, a large country of gold importing, has increased gold import tariffs from 7.5%to 12.5%, which is not conducive to the purchase of gold.

02

Domestic gold price

Decline

Recently, domestic gold prices have fell. On July 8th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's daily market gold futures contract was shocked, the transaction was active, and the position was reduced. The main domestic gold futures 2208 contract opened 376.60 yuan. As of the day closed, it closed at 377.04 yuan, down 0.31%or 1.18 yuan; the settlement price was 376.86 yuan; the transaction volume was 62329 hands; The contract has recently reached a new low in the last five months.

The price of domestic gold jewelry fell more than 10 yuan per gram, and many consumers took the opportunity to step up stocks.

Recently, the salesperson of Hong Kong Jubilee told reporters, "Since the price of gold has fallen below 380/gram this week, too many customers have come to buy, and we work overtime every day."

She told reporters that in addition to buying large -piece jewelry such as bracelets and golden pigs, there are also many people who buy gold bars and gold jewelry. Many people make reserves. At the beginning of the year, the gold rose due to mutations in Russia and Ukraine. Gold's "aunt" sold money, so he had the psychology that he wanted to stock up while the price was low.

03

Can the price of gold be regained?

Will the price of gold in the future continue to fall, or is it firm?

The World Gold Association analyzed in the report that "in history, gold prices performed well in high inflation environments. When the inflation rate is higher than 3%, the price of gold rose by an average of 14%; The average price of gold has risen by about 25%. "The CPI in the United States rose 8.6%year -on -year in May this year, a new high of 40 years. This means that if the inflation trend continues in the second half of the year, it will provide support for the upward of the gold market.

Some experts believe that although the current price of the US dollar is strong due to the strong expectations of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike, the US dollar is strong, it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates under economic recession. The current tough attitude may be softened, and there is support for precious metals. Once the black swan incident in the European and Japanese financial markets occurs, precious metals will rise.

(Tip: This article does not constitute investment suggestions, and the risk of operation according to this)

Source: Hubei Daily Comprehensive Zinhua News Agency, China News Network, China Economic Network, Surging News, China Fund Daily, Securities Daily, etc.

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