Wang Yu: Shanghai Cinema resumes, the film and television sector rebounds?

Live theme: Shanghai Cinema resumed work, the film and television sector rebound is imminent?

Live guest: Wang Yu Film and Television ETF (516620) Fund Manager

Live time: July 4th 15:30

Summary:

1. On the whole, the investment value of the film and television industry. In fact, I think that the short -term catalysis is the repair of post -epidemic consumption, and the recovery of interpersonal activities. Because of the repeated factor of the epidemic, the pressure of the film industry was still very large before, but the logic of good -looking good in the middle and long term has not changed. SMEs will also accelerate the clearing in the cold winter of the industry. Therefore, the competitive advantage and market share of head companies are expected to gradually increase.

2. From the perspective of valuation, the film and television industry is now cheaper. If we pull the film and television index back to 2015, 2015 may be a high time in the film and television industry, and then it will be stunned. So far, the PE valuation of the film and television industry is about 33 times, and it is about 33%of historical valuations, and the valuation is relatively low. Interested investors can pay attention to film and television ETF (516620).

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Good afternoon investors, I am the fund manager Wang Yu of the Film and Television ETF (516620). I am glad to have the opportunity to introduce the investment value of the film and television industry today.

1. Review of the performance of the film and television industry in 2021

In fact, the film and television industry is better to understand compared to our ordinary investors. We can also experience it in daily life. From this perspective, film and television is also a relatively easy -to -grasp track.

Judging from the annual report performance of the media industry, we dismantled the two segments of film and television production and movie theater lines. In fact, the growth rates of these two parts are still relatively leading. For example, in 2021, thanks to our domestic epidemic control better, although it is still troublesome to go abroad, our domestic activities, including interpersonal communication, have basically not been affected much. The core indicators such as fares are considerable compared to the same period in 2020.

Therefore, in this case, the domestic film market is also entering a relatively healthy development track. In 2021, the growth rate of the net profit of the film and television production and the cinema line industry reached 85%and 95%, respectively, which was particularly prominent in the media industry. In fact, the prosperity of these sub -industries is mainly including three aspects: three aspects:

1) Cinema line: We also mentioned earlier that the epidemic control was better last year, and everyone had more experience in watching the movie. Therefore, in 2021, the quality of some domestic films, such as some domestic films, also has a relatively obvious improvement, and the box office concentration effect of the film is also more obvious.

With the gradual control of the Shanghai epidemic, after the post -epidemic era is normalized, Shanghai has gradually resumed the cinema and other places in an orderly manner since July 8. The bottom of the theater box office reimbursement is also worth looking forward to.

2) Film and television dramas: In fact, during the period of the epidemic sealing and controlling stage, everyone will reduce it. Many people will start chasing the drama at home. This also brings greater demand for the production of film and television dramas. The promotion of the policy superposition has also made the production of film and television dramas that gradually show the characteristics of the head.

In particular, there are also many excellent online dramas that have appeared, because our TV series have been reported through TV stations before. This process is actually relatively long and the cost is relatively high. Therefore, more video website platforms have also begun to cooperate with the online platform. In this case, online dramas have also developed a better development.

3) Internet videos: As the user's ARPU improves, it also makes Internet videos a benign development trend. At present, it has benefited from actors to start salary reduction, including the decline of the growth rate of content costs, and it is also a content that can promote downstream Internet videos to produce high -quality content.

Second, the film and television industry chain combing

The industrial chain of the film industry includes three parts: upstream film production, midstream film distribution and downstream theater screening.

In terms of upstream film production, in fact, our country's film production companies, short -term investment opportunities are mainly explosive TV series and film catalysis of the company's performance. With the improvement of the industrialization of our national film, it is worth looking forward to in the future. After all, the United States also has excellent content platform companies such as Disney, Marvel, and DreamWorks, and China is bound to produce such a leading company for upstream film production. The film and television industry has been clearly settled from 2015, and it has gradually become able to slowly settle down and pay more attention to content.

The release of midstream movies is the first subverted link after the Internet enables the film industry chain. The traditional issuance efficiency is low, and it is highly scattered and the investment opportunities are relatively small. Internet distribution includes some short dramas issued through the network platform. After intervention in Internet distribution, it is also expected to form a relatively good and stable competition pattern in the distribution link.

The downstream cinema screening is just mentioned. At present, our epidemic is basically stable, and more personnel flow will increase. As more and more people can go to the cinema to watch movies, there is also a repair for theaters, so we say that the film and television industry may have a quotation after epidemic in the short term. You can pay attention to the performance restoration of the theater after the resumption. In the middle period, it is still necessary to look at the industry competition pattern of theater line.

Relatively speaking, the leading company has held the impact of these waves of epidemic, and the market concentration has increased. Its valuation and EPS may be improved in the future. In the long run, the cinema company actually has a cinema or in the stage of to C. It has a higher level of ROE dividends. Relatively speaking, the valuation of the cinema line in the film and television industry is also relatively stable, with better investment value. I think the movie is still mainly looking at the steady growth of the movie box office. In fact, in 2021, we increased by 191%year -on -year. It can be seen that the rebound of the movie box office after the epidemic has improved. After this epidemic, referring to the previous experience, the box office contribution of the cinema should also be picked up. In the next five years, the box office of my country's film is also expected to maintain an annual growth of about 10%, or it is still in a steady growth trend.

We just said that the film industry is actually easy to be catalyzed by good works and explosive content. What are the good works worth looking forward to in the second half of the year?

The trend of the cinema section of this year can be found that there is still obvious schedule effects, including the appearance of "Changjin Lake" at the end of last year, and an injecting agent in the film and television industry. In the second half of the year, our next summer stalls are also very recommended, and some extended movies are also expected to be released.

For example, the films that have attracted much attention from July to August include "Detective War", "Mozart with Outer Space", "Rushing Out of the Earth", "Seven Bands", etc. Some postponed movies with high degree of attention include "Xueba" and "Today's Rescue" and "Super Family", these are also expected to be released in the second half of the year.

What I just talked about was domestic films. The pace of the return of popular imported films was accelerated. Many popular movies are also expected to be released this year, which has boosted the morale of the film market. "Jurassic World 3", which was released on June 8, also performed strongly, with more than 800 million box office. The more popular and high -attention movies introduced in the second half of 2022 include "Little Yellow". The market is also looking forward to it. Foreign files are on July 1st, and it should not be too late in China. There is also "Avatar 2". Foreign file is December 16th, and there is currently no file in China.

Third, the TV drama industry chain combing

After talking about the movie, let's talk about the industrial chain of the TV series now. Similar to the industry chain of the movie, we also divide it into upstream, middle reaches and downstream. In fact, the TV drama industry has been strict in supervision, especially before, including some of the dramas and some water injection dramas, which make the length of the space too long, including actor's salary. All these policies have a large blow to the TV series production industry chain.

The upstream can be relatively simple to understand as the main production factors involved in the production of TV series, such as directors, actors, and screenwriters. In fact, these are scarce resources of the upstream industry in the TV series. However, the previous investment in the artist's brokerage business is actually relatively large, so the reward of the artist is relatively large in the production of TV dramas, and it may be relatively powerful in other aspects of cost compression.

If in such a case, the artist brokerage business is actually supplementing the upstream profit of the TV series, so they have no way to cut them in these two aspects.

The midstream is actually the production of TV series. In fact, in the past few years, everyone can clearly feel that watching TV is a few of the well -known TV drama production companies. After some industries, including the rise and fall of film and television drama companies, there are not many remaining. The concentration of TV series in the past is relatively low, and it is not much attention in the secondary market, but after the industry adjustment in recent years, we will see that the market share of leading companies has increased Chance.

The downstream is the TV series screening. In fact, the most important thing before is to screen the TV series. Now Internet screening is increasingly entering our lives. The logic of investment is mainly the weakening of the competition in the TV drama, the cost control of content, and the performance improvement brought about by the price improvement of paid members in the Internet. Because we obviously feel that if you watch a new TV series on the Internet platform, if you do not buy VIP, you can't see the latest, ordinary members may only watch three episodes and five episodes, but VIP can see the latest ones, and even advanced on -demand.

In fact, I now think that the Internet platform has gained the psychological psychology of our users, because after all, you see half of the show and want to finish the ending. So in this case, others can see why I can't see it, I don't want to wait, so many people tend to charge members on the Internet platform. From this perspective, this one is also a new profit growth point for downstream TV dramas.

I just told you that the recent policy management and control of TV dramas this year is relatively tight. The system of traffic film and television evaluation more focuses on content, so that our entire TV series is now going in the direction of high -quality development. Related resources will definitely accelerate to focus on head companies.

Under the impact of the epidemic, the impact on the film and television industry is also very great, including many senior players. He may have broken the capital chain. Activity. Under the current circumstances, in 2021, the filming of the national film and television drama filmed from 498, in fact, has fallen by about 25%year -on -year. The average episode of the single episode is 33 episodes, a 5%decline. From this perspective, from the perspective of the TV series production industry, it will still be obvious to improve the trend of fineization. The TV drama industry has also ushered in the rise of online platforms. More online dramas are played through some video website platforms. In many cases, you want to watch an excellent TV series, but it may be exclusive to Tencent and exclusive Qiqiyi, so you need to go to the members of the video website. In fact, the number of online video users has reached nearly 1 billion people in our country, so the penetration rate of online video is very high, which is close to 94%.

From the perspective of channel content, the number of traditional TV dramas has fallen for four consecutive years. In 2021, only 498 TV series passed the record in 2021, but there were 1,173 online dramas. Basically, the online drama was 2.4 times that of traditional TV dramas. Therefore, from this perspective, the momentum of the current development of online dramas is actually unstoppable. With the original content of the video website, homemade online dramas have also undergone a transition from childhood production, low -cost attempts to large production, quality, and verticalization. In recent years, the proportion of online dramas has also been higher in the number of launch of the total drama, and the proportion of 2021 has also been nearly 70 %.

Fourth, Internet video

In addition to web dramas, online videos also have videos provided by those independent video providers, including homemade dramas, and some of these users and UP master MCN output, which may be shorter video. They are shared on the live video platform, and users see their videos through these platforms. Advertising agents may be used by finding these content providers to implant advertisements, so as to form a new industry chain of Internet videos. Nowadays, as MCNs also have incubated Internet celebrities, more and more UP owners are output high -quality content to the Internet platform, they will also become an indispensable force for the Internet video industry chain.

In the investment value of the Internet video industry, we mainly look at the current industry price increase. In fact, the price increase stage, I think it is a relatively smooth logic stage, and the ARPU value is also expected to increase. In fact, users have also increased the amount of contributions to video websites, as if iQiyi in December 2021, and Tencent in April 2022, all successively increased the price of video websites. But many friends may not find it, because many people have tied the annual card. It was also for everyone to lock the price before, and it will give you a good price of a year card. When you don't know when you want to continue, it actually has increased the price, but it may not be particularly many, just dozens of dollars. So for the effect you get, users are not particularly sensitive and can accept its price increase. After shrinking the discount of members, the industry that slowly videos has officially entered the price increase cycle.

You may think that you raise your price, will you restrict the number of users and your development? But in fact, you can refer to the payment situation of other online entertainment users. The price of the Internet long video members is not high, so in such an angle, we are more able to accept the membership price at this perspective. In the case of more passivation, the price lifting is still a benign cycle that is conducive to improving their performance.

For example, in fact, as of Q1 of 2022, the number of paid members of iQiyi, Tencent, and Mango TV has actually reached 97 million, 124 million and 50.4 million. %. Basically, the penetration rate of paid users is actually more than 20%. With the price increase of Tencent Video and iQiyi, the trend of price increase in the long video industry has basically established, so the average income of each user will have a relatively obvious increase.

5. Future outlook for the film and television industry

On the whole, the investment value of the film and television industry. In fact, I think the shortest catalysis is the repair of post -epidemic consumption, and the recovery of interpersonal activities. Due to the repeated factor of the epidemic, the pressure of the film industry is still very large in the short term, but the logic of good in the middle and long term has not changed. SMEs will also accelerate the clearing in the cold winter of the industry. Therefore, the competitive advantage and market share of head companies are expected to gradually increase.

The film and television industry is now cheaper because its current value valuation is in a more reasonable range. If we pull the entire index back to 2015, 2015 may be a time when the film and television industry is relatively high, and film and television will rise in full swing. However, after experiencing such a highlight, it was stunned and adjusted. In fact, so far, the PE valuation of the film and television theme index is about 33 times, and it is about 33%of the historical valuation, so it is in a relatively low range.

The film and television ETF tracks the theme index of China Securities and Television. At present, the total number of ingredients in the index is 30. It mainly includes leading companies in different links such as film and television production, online drama production, animation production, publishers, and channel vendors. Investors who are optimistic about investment opportunities in the film industry can pay attention to film and television ETFs. risk warning

Investors should fully understand the differences in the method of savings such as funding fixed investment and zero deposit. Regular fixed investment is a simple way to guide investors to make long -term investment and average investment costs. However, regular fixed investment does not avoid the risks inherent in fund investment, cannot guarantee investors to gain benefits, nor is it an equivalent financial management method to replace savings.

Whether it is the stock ETF/LOF/classification fund, it is a variety of securities investment funds with higher expected risks and expected income. Its expected income and expected risk levels are higher than mixed funds, bond funds and currency market funds.

Fund assets invest in science and technology boards and GEM stocks, and will face the unique risks caused by differences in investment targets, market systems, and trading rules. Investors are requested to pay attention.

The short -term rise and fall of the sector/fund is only used as an auxiliary materials for the analysis of the article. It is for reference only and does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance.

In the article, the short -term performance of individual stocks is for reference only, does not constitute stock recommendations, nor does it constitute a prediction and guarantee of fund performance.

The above views are for reference only, and do not constitute investment suggestions or commitments. If you need to buy related fund products, please pay attention to investors' appropriate management regulations, do a good job of risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products that match it according to your own risk tolerance. The fund has risks, and investment needs to be cautious

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