Talking about SpaceX's imagination in the future: Will the end of commercial aerospace be Mars?

Author ｜ Lan Bin Sheng

Musk's Mars dream has been done for 20 years.

Nine years ago, Chris Anderson, the editor of the former "Wiring" magazine, hosted a dialogue with Musk. At the meeting, Musk expressed concerns about the devastating ending that could not escape the future of human civilization. He Said that after a billion years, the sun will become a red superstar, and the earth will be swallowed by the flames of the sun. Although now I am worried that this matter is a bit worried, in fact, this process has begun, only 1 billion years can only take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to only 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to take 1 billion years to only 1 billion years. Discover the situation.

It was at this dialogue, Musk said that famous words: I want to die on Mars, as long as it does not affect the development of SpaceX. Since its establishment, SpaceX has achieved milestones such as rocket launch, rocket recycling, manned space launch, and batch deployment of "Star Chain" low -orbit satellites at a amazing speed. This makes SpaceX the most important launch service provider in the United States, and gradually becomes one of the world's largest satellite operators.

What everyone does not know is that Mars Dream does run through the entire development process of SpaceX: Last year, with the help of NASA AMES, Seti, and six famous American universities and research institutes, SpaceX submitted to the National Sciences University The white paper on the next ten -year survey of planet science and celestial biology, in detail how to go to Mars in the future.

Musk had been criticized because he was good at conceptual marketing. Although he said that he did not like the concept of "marketing", in fact, Musk attached great importance to marketing, and often left the public relations team and wrote the public relations manuscripts himself. It can be seen from the matter of sending Tesla to space, which makes Tesla's brand link with the universe, which makes his brand connotation extremely large.

Is Mars Dream a wonderful story tailor -made for SpaceX? We don't know. However, under the traction of Mars Dream, the vertical and horizontal intersection of the SpaceX business layout has appeared. From the Falcon Rockets, the Dragon Ship to the Star Chain and Star Ship, the commercialization business is lost to the star ship business after hematopoiescence. It's getting closer.

01 Chasing dreams in the first -level market

Musk's dedication to Mars was visible before SpaceX was founded. One day in 2001, Musk landed on NASA's website and tried to find some detailed plans about Mars exploration, but it was not found at all. After that, Musk had disappointed the reporter of the "Wiring" magazine, "Why are there no plans and arrangements? Nothing, really crazy."

The U.S. institutions that should have been exploring the new field of space seem to have no interest in exploration of Mars. In addition to Musk's surprise, in order to play an example of global aerospace, the Mars Life Foundation was established. Oasis) concept was born. It is planned to launch a small experimental greenhouse to Mars and plant plants. However, after buying Rockets from Russia, the idea of ​​making rockets is becoming more active in Musk's mind. company.

Later, when I talked about it, Musk admitted, "When SpaceX was founded, I think the probability of the company's survival is 10%." The pioneer is really difficult. After four years, SpaceX created his first first of his own first. The Rockets "Falcon No. 1", but the subsequent launch failed to burn almost all the wealth of Musk, and also extinguished the expectations of investment institutions and banks for private space companies. At that time, in the industry, private rockets, private rockets It is a worthless money project.

It was not until the fourth launch of the backwater battle that SpaceX finally got an order of $ 1.6 billion provided by NASA, providing 12 freight supply services to the International Space Station, and officially opened the road of commercial aerospace.

In fact, since the establishment of SpaceX, Musk's external caliber has always been consistent, that is, the ultimate goal is to make humans become cross -star species, which is also the main theme of his current career. But it was not until the successful launch of the Falcon 1 that his goal was faced by people, and the capital joined the ranks of "dreaming".

Peter Demandis of XPRIZE once said: "This is more driving than just profit. Musk's vision is intoxicating and attractive." Indeed, this attractiveness is most direct in capital in the market. Starting from the A -round A financing of Founders FUND in 2008, SpaceX has already conducted at least 21 rounds of commercial financing, and the financing speed has become faster and faster.

From 2021 to the present, SpaceX's financing status map source Tianyan eye check

Since last year, SpaceX has received 7 rounds of financing, with a total financing of about 3.4 billion US dollars. According to Reuters, in June of this year, SpaceX raised $ 1.68 billion through equity financing, with a valuation of up to 127 billion US dollars, becoming the third largest unicorn in the world, second only to byte beating and Ant Group, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, this one, and this one, and this one, this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, this one, this one, and this one, and this one, and this one, this one The valuation scale is already equivalent to the market value of half Alibaba. Just a month later, South Korea's future asset group also invested $ 100 million in SpaceX.

When the eyes turn to the country, you can find the global commercial aerospace tide driven by SpaceX's success. Since the release of the policy in 2015, China's commercial aerospace has entered a period of rapid development. According to Tianyan check data, 37 commercial aerospace -related enterprises last year, with a total financing amount of more than 6.45 billion yuan. From the perspective of the round distribution of the investment enterprises, enterprises are mainly early projects. The number of seed wheels, angel rounds, and round A financing events is close to half of the total amount of financing events. In addition, according to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 100 VC/PE institutions involved in the business aerospace field. China's commercial aerospace has opened a new pattern of competition. Capital has become more and more popular, especially rockets and satellites. Launch R & D enterprise.

But compared with SpaceX, domestic commercial aerospace still has a long way to go after all. As the leader of the commercial aerospace field, SpaceX has an ultra -high valuation and is not surprising. Interestingly, Musk has always regarded the "Mars Dream" as the ultimate goal, and has to spend a lot of time and energy. In the direction, the two -legged SpaceX is trying to make profit and sustainable development. However, from the commercialization of commercialization, Musk's greater ambitions may also be glimpsed: new infrastructure for world operations.

02 commercialization acceleration

Czekovsky, Goddard, and Blazers and legendary people in the rocket fields of von Blaun have dreamed of going to Mars. But obviously, if there is no revolution in the field of aerospace, it is difficult to achieve temporary survival on Mars by relying on the long -frequency research and development time of traditional aerospace.

In a research report last year, Huatai Securities believes that SpaceX has reshaped the global rocket launch industry with technologies such as rocket recycling. Earlier, Rocket launches have been based on one -time large projects carrying the government, such as the establishment of space stations, human moon landing, Mars detection, Beidou system construction, etc., and it is difficult to form commercial operations. From the perspective of the rocket launch, the global government has fallen sharply since 2013.

Rocket launch cost and change of thrust source CICC

However, SPACEX relied on independent technology breakthroughs, subverting the traditional space industry, and mastering key technologies such as rocket recycling technology and one -arrow multi -star through the industrial chain vertical integration. SpaceX also uses projects such as StarLink as a pilot to greatly increase the frequency of rocket launch. Through the scale effect, the cost of launching is further diluted, which brings a continuous decline in the launch price.

"Cultivation" is SpaceX's proud weapon. The continuous launch price has made SpaceX the most basic technology and cost advantage in the process of promoting the company's business expansion. Infinite benefits.

Yang Kai from the Beijing Aerospace Long March Science and Technology Information Research Institute and Shang Xianyang of the China Lauding Rocket Technology Research Institute wrote in the article that the five product projects developed by SpaceX formed the company's five major business areas, namely Eelv, which launch demand for military launch needs Launching business, "Dragon" spacecraft cargo and passenger transportation business for the "International Space Station" (ISS), the "Falcon" rocket business for commercial launch, the "star chain" low -orbit communication business for the consumer market, and the long -term facing The "overweight-star ship" business of aerospace transportation demand.

SpaceX's organizational structure and business layout

Among them, the star chain business corresponds to the market for low -orbid star networking, which is to use the low -orbital satellite network to do the previous aerospace tasks again to try to build a global broadband environment. The star ship is the closest business to Musk's Mars dream, and takes the task of the future moon and Mars journey. However, explosion accidents occur many times in the test. Essence

It is worth noting that as of the end of June last year, the Falcon 9 Rockets launched a total of 122 launch, launching 41 times for the US government users, 29 launching tasks for commercial users, 52 times for commercial users, accounting for 52 times, accounting for the total total. 42.6%of the launch number is not very high. According to the income, the proportion of commercial launch will be lower.

The commercial launch business is more like a SPACEX window. It establishes the image of the company's low -cost launch service company. In fact, a thin business model is adopted. In addition, the commercial launch business has also become a test field for the company's reuse technology, making it among other businesses, so that in other businesses Rockets that can be used multiple times to reduce overall construction costs.

Spacex company fund source source

Therefore, from the current situation of commercialization, providing launch services for government users such as military and NASA is the company's most stable source of funds, and the government also provides a lot of funding support. Star chain and star ship business is still in the stage of burning money. For a long time, it is unlikely to generate net income. It is necessary to rely on other business profitability, government funding support, and financing.

Because of the commercialization of SpaceX, there is a direct interest binding relationship with the US Pentagon, and to some extent, SpaceX is becoming the "arsenal" of the US military. Take the Star Ship pointing to Mars Dream as an example. The US Pentagon is considering establishing a militarized SpaceX Star Ship Fleet as the "fast response department" to defeat the future Banca Western attack.

03 "Space Contest" in the civilian market

In 2019, the U.S. Air Force and SpaceX signed a nearly $ 28 million agreement to conduct military service demonstration verification to evaluate the performance of the star chain satellite communication network for the performance of the Air Force. In terms of positioning, the US Army also provides millions of dollars of funds to entrusts the Radio Navigation Laboratory of the University of Austin at the University of Texas to study, hoping to use the star chain low -orbit satellite to provide a positioning service with accuracy better than GPS. Since SpaceX announced the satellite Internet service project in 2015 and proposed Starlink, the civilian market seems to have been played as a "Space Army Preparation Competition", and SpaceX has gone further and further in the infrastructure construction of the satellite Internet.

At the end of the 20th century, the US Motorola Company proposed the world's first satellite Internet constellation "铱 铱 20". Due to the difficulty of technology, high cost, and market positioning errors, it was forced to stagnate. Today, with the development of satellite communication technology, the construction of satellite construction and the reduction of launch costs, the satellite Internet has once again entered the public's vision. According to data from the US SIA, the total value of the existing commercial satellite industry is about 280 billion US dollars. It is expected that by 2040, the value of the global space economy will reach $ 1 trillion. Among them, the satellite Internet is expected to account for 50%to 70%of the market growth.

There are still 70%of land in the world that are not covered by the Internet, and 3 billion people are not used to the Internet. If the ground backbone network is used to cover these areas, even if residents can pay costs, it will take decades to fully build infrastructure. As a "new infrastructure", the satellite Internet has exerted the function of network infrastructure. Through the deployment of the satellite Internet, it can occupy the power of 6G words in the sky.

According to Musk's plan, the star chain plan needs to deploy more than 42,000 satellites in space, and now it has launched more than 2750 satellites. The reason why SpaceX develops the star chain business at a high speed is that in addition to commercialization, it is also because the track pit and spectrum belong to scarce space resources, and behind the scarce resources is the hard power of the great power.

According to the ITU (ITU) regulations, the principles of the track pits and spectrum resource compliance are the first priority. "Near -land orbit can accommodate about 60,000 satellites. By 2029, about 57,000 low -orbit satellites will be deployed on the earth's near -land orbit. All countries seize the satellite Internet space track and spectrum resource situation." Just as Beijing computer technology and application research research The director Yuan Xiaoguang said that a problem followed was space congestion.

NASA scientist Donald Caseler once proposed the "Caseler effect": Once the number of objects on the near -ground track reaches a critical value, the fragments formed by collision will produce more collision chain reactions, which will eventually cause a large number of fragments to surround the earth on the earth The corresponding area becomes irreplaceable and unpopular. In other words, when the near -ground track is gradually occupied, the probability of collision will be enlarged.

In June of this year, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) authorized SpaceX to use its star chain satellite Internet on mobile transport to open the green light to the commercial aircraft, ships and trucks. This not only shows that the star chain has developed to almost complete and commercially available, but also declares the exclusive advantage of the star chain in the satellite Internet industry. From the best network performance to the current use of dynamic use, SpaceX is making it so that SPACEX is making it so that SPACEX is making it so that SPACEX is making. The reasons for continuing to use other satellite Internet service providers gradually disappeared.

Of course, this does not mean that SpaceX has no pressure. As a stirring of the global satellite Internet market, under the catfish effect, the satellite Internet industry is surging. Whether it is Amazon's founder Bezos' blue origin company, or one -bodon, which has only reorganized British startups in the past two years, is catching up. The former Kuiper project plans to send 3236 satellites into a near -track orbit; the latter has also proposed to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) of 48,000 satellites to launch demand, exceeding Musk as the star as a star star 42,000 targets for chain planning.

China Commercial Rocket Company Important Milestone Map Source CICC

At the same time, the domestic satellite Internet is also in the ascendant. In 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission included the satellite Internet into the field of communication network infrastructure, injecting a dose of strong needles into the development of the industry. At present, my country has 375 low -track satellites, and has begun to deploy series of constellations such as "Hongyan" and "Hongyun". Liu Baiqi, the founder and CEO of Xinghe Power, said, "From the perspective of application, SpaceX is mainly for Mars immigration. In terms of low -orbit satellite launch, our gap will gradually shrink in the next two or three years."

Compared with SpaceX, which is walking on the satellite Internet, it may be the best opportunity to catch up in the field of satellite Internet.

04 Is the end of the commercial aerospace the Mars?

Musk said in an interview that after the Star Chain is completed, it is expected to reach US $ 30 billion per year, 10 times at SpaceX. Satellite Internet heavy assets, high risk, and high returns, that is, before obtaining high returns, we must burn money and grab customers. In the words of the founder of Oneweb: The biggest risk of this industry is financing and space fragments. It is necessary to find someone to fill the funds gap at intervals. Obviously, SpaceX, the world's richest man, is the company that does not have to worry about this risk. Star chain and star ship business is currently the only loss business of SpaceX. When the star chain may become a "cash cow" in the future, SpaceX may fully promote the star ship business. According to Musk's judgment, SpaceX may complete the first Mars freight in 2022 (previously estimated to complete the manufacturer and spacecraft in 2025), and in 2024, the manned spacecraft landed on Mars. Immigrate 1 million people.

However, it should be noted that just a few days ago, foreign media reported that in the latest round of the Rockets, SpaceX's ultra -heavy booster shakes due to a severe explosion and caught fire at the launch table. Musk also said that SpaceX was evaluating the loss. The fire caused the rocket -assisted machine prototype to be damaged by "minor" and still need to check all engines.

There are many problems faced by the star ship spacecraft. In this test, the explosion of the core component of the core component of the core component adds a lot of instability factors to Musk's development plan. Being a reality may need to stay for time inspection.

But as Liu Baiqi said, "SpaceX has reached an application environment that is out of commercial aerospace that is going to talk about today." Therefore, for domestic commercial aerospace, blindly targeting SpaceX is not practical. On the basis of continuous cash flow and leading technology, in China's policy and technical environment, there is still a long way to reduce rocket launch costs and increase rocket launch capacity.

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