The first "four consecutive drops" in the past three years!Domestic refined oil prices may be reduced again, and the price of oil prices is difficult to change the market outlook.

Huaxia Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Miao Shiyu Lu Xiaoxiao Beijing report

With the arrival of the first solar terms in the autumn, the price of oil that is high within the year is about to usher in a new round of "cooling".

According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the ninth working day of August 8th, the average price of reference to crude oil was $ 99.38/barrel, and the change rate was -1.64%. The corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price should be reduced by 110 yuan/ton. It is expected that the retail price of this round is expected to be a high probability event, and the decrease will be reduced by more than 100 yuan/ton. Affected by inertia, the rate of change may maintain negative extension. At 24:00 on August 9, domestic refined oils have undergone a decline after experiencing the "three consecutive declines".

The reporter of Huaxia Times was informed that if the oil price was cash, the domestic refined oil prices would appear the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019.

Zhang Yonghao, a crude oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that from the current data monitoring situation, due to the prices of the crude oil market cycle first and then hedging, the domestic oil prices in this adjustment window may usher in usage Slightly lowered, it is not ruled out that the possibility of nearly 50 yuan/ton red line reduction. "At present, the turning point of the main reference supply and demand and inventory of oil prices has not yet appeared. In the case of negative supply of the industry, the short -term market will still be led by cautious emotions." Zhang Yonghao said.

In the first three years, the first "four consecutive drops"

In this round of prices, international crude oil prices fluctuate. On August 3, the monthly routine meeting of OPEC+(OPEC+) was held, announcing that it increased a slightly increasing production of 100,000 barrels per day in September. After the minimum increase in history, international crude oil prices fluctuated lower.

Based on the price of domestic refined oil retail prices, the market is more agreed that the price of domestic refined oil at 24:00 on August 9 may usher in a down reduction.

According to Xu Na, an analyst of Zhuochuang Information Reinforcement Oil, according to the current price adjustment amplitude, domestic 92 gasoline was reduced by 0.06 yuan, and No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel downgrade 0.07 yuan. "Huaxia Times" reporter was informed that if the policy was reduced in this round, the domestic "four consecutive declines" will be ushered in during the year, and it is also the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019.

It is reported that this round of refined oil price adjustment is the fifteenth price adjustment in 2022. During the year, the price adjustment of the refined oil products showed a "ten rising and four declines" situation. After the rise and fall, the standard gasoline after the "four consecutive declines" was reduced by 1060 yuan/ton after the "four consecutive declines". The standard diesel has been reduced by 1025 yuan/ton, the price increase is reduced by 0.83 yuan, the 95th gasoline is reduced by 0.88 yuan, and the number 0 diesel is reduced by 0.87 yuan.

In response to the reasons for the decline in oil prices in this round of pricing cycle, Xu Na told the reporter of the Huaxia Times that since this valuation cycle, international oil prices have been staggered, but the bottom has continued to move down. In the past week, European and American crude oil futures have fallen by 10%. The market's concerns about the slowdown of the economy and the decline in the global economic manufacturing index have become the main factor affecting the decline in oil prices. The WTI has been closed below 90 US dollars per barrel since February 10. Affected by this, the changing rate of crude oil from positive and negative, and continuously deepened within negative values, and the price adjustment was transformed down from a downward downward.

It is worth noting that due to the fluctuations of crude oil prices, the recent fuel surcharge fees have also ushered in the first time of the year. In this regard, Zhang Yonghao said, "As one of the international oil products, the price of Asian aviation kerosene products has also declined significantly within the cycle under the decline in the decline of crude oil prices, which has also promoted the reduction of fuel surcharges."

Oil price shocks in the back market

In fact, the data shows that since this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil futures have fallen, especially in recent days, crude oil has closed down sharply in recent days. At present, WTI has fallen below $ 90/barrel, a new low in the past six months.

Wang Shan, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Reinforcement Oil, told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that it was mainly supported by OPEC+output in the early stage. The market's concerns about the global economic recession and the slowdown in energy demand have continued to intensify, the negative factor pressure, and the price of crude oil fluctuated.

Recently, domestic refined oil and international crude oil prices have fallen down. Looking forward to the market outlook, industry analysts have different judgments on market trends, and the overall market is still dominated by cautious attitudes.

Zhang Yonghao told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that from the current point of view, the basic support of oil prices supports the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and geopolitical issues. The current international oil price benchmark price is still greater than 80 US dollars/barrels, which are within the high operating range. Therefore, in my personal opinion, there is no risk of upward, but macroe macro may still not be positive. "At present, the pressure of oil prices in the remaining time in the third quarter is still high." Zhang Yonghao said,

Wang Shan also told reporters that in the market outlook, the crude oil market is still in the expectations of both economic and demand. Support, the current prices of some main units are still high, and the demand side of gasoline and diesel is steadily improved, but the improvement is relatively slow. It is expected that the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel may still have some room for adjustment in the short term.

However, the reporter of "Huaxia Times" also paid attention to that although the industry research institution Goldman Sachs reduced the predictions of Brent crude oil prices in the third and fourth quarters to $ 110 and $ 125 per barrel, they believed that the decline in the retail price of gasoline's retail priceIt is unlikely to last, maintaining $ 125 per barrel in 2023.Goldman Sachs said in the relevant research report: "US fuel retail prices will rise to the end of the year." And it is expected that by the fourth quarter of this year, gasoline prices will rise to $ 4.35 per gallon.It is reported that the prediction of high -row crude oil prices was $ 140 per barrel and $ 130 per barrel.Everbright Securities also recently stated that although OPEC+reduces production increase, the Federal Reserve's expectations and decline in crude oil demand offset the tension of supply, and international oil prices have fallen.However, due to the continuous tension of geopolitical situations, the amount of crude oil supply is weak in the lack of supply in the medium- and long -term upstream and long -term upstream.

Editor -in -chief: Editor of Lu Xiaoxiao: Zhang Yuning

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