Chuanguan Think Tank | Quick Reading version!"Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Report (2022)"
Author:Chuanguan News Time:2022.08.14
Chuanguan think tank released the "Sichuan New Energy Automobile Industry Development Report (2022)"
Do you have a chance to change the road?
Xiong Xiaowei, chief researcher at Chuanguan think tank
When the national new energy vehicle industry sang high, Sichuan "retreated again."
The most intuitive performance is reflected in the proportion of Sichuan new energy vehicles in the country's total output. This number has dropped from about 3%at the beginning of the domestic subsidy to the beginning of the slope, and fell below 2%last year, and now it has fallen to about 1%.
At the beginning of last year, Chuanguan think tanks investigated the phenomenon of "not advancing" in Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Industry. All places are actively acting, but the industry is still "retreat again and again", which forces us to think: Is there an old path that is unable to go? Do you still have a chance to realize the overtaking of the new energy vehicle industry? If so, where is the chance?
The Chuanguan Think Tank has talked in depth with the heads of 28 industry associations and research institutions, enterprises, and competent departments at all levels, and wrote and published the "Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Report (2022)".
Article A 丨 Traditional thinking is now facing a small challenge
It should be noted that "one retreat" does not mean that the industry is declining.
On the contrary, Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Industry has maintained a high speed growth in the past year. This phenomenon seems to be puzzling: Sichuan chase at such a high speed, why does the proportion of the country still "retreat again and again"?
Why can't Sichuan's production growth rate not keep up with the national average?
In fact, the direct cause of "retreat and retreat" is not difficult to understand: Sichuan has a faster growth rate and faster the country.
When the market demand is explosive, the growth rate of production has become an important indicator of the development trend of a local new energy vehicle. But last year or this year, the growth rate of Sichuan's output is far from keeping up with the national average speed.
Why can't keep up? There are objective reasons. However, interviewees generally believe that more reasons should be found from themselves.
In this regard, the Sichuan -view think tank had a survey at the beginning of last year, which can be simply summarized as: Sichuan lacks hot -selling models. And this is because our province lacks "head enterprises" and "corporate headquarters".
After a year and a half, has the situation changed? Sichuan Guan think tanks conducted a survey and found that the situation has not been significantly changed.
One and a half years have passed, why didn’t the situation change significantly? The Sichuan Guan think tank survey found that local governments are actively fighting. However, the person in charge of all the competent departments of the interview said that the current attraction is very difficult.
Why is it difficult for "fighting" and "grasping cultivation" now?
Of course, the difficulty requires local stress, but the interviewees remind the deep levels and trend problems behind them to attract great attention. They are concentrated in the two traditional ideas of "fighting" in various places -preferential policies, industrial chain construction construction Essence
Looking at the preferential policies, the cost of attracting the cost is "too high". Now to introduce the new capacity of a giant, the cost of local governments is calculated based on "billions".
Why is the cost of attracting so high? The interviewees mainly talked about two reasons. The first is that the "bottom -up" window period has passed. The second is the issue of Sichuan's capacity utilization rate, which will increase the cost of enterprise landing.
Another major problem is the "weak" of the industrial chain supply chain. The "weakness" here is relatively speaking. Interviewed experts reminded that in addition to power batteries, Sichuan has fewer advantages in other core components.
Based on the above situations, the two traditional development ideas of local "recruitment" are now facing a lot of challenges. Interviewees generally believe that if the traditional path continues, Sichuan will bear high costs and risks, and it will be more difficult.
It is not easy to attract, can it be cultivated internally? If it is to cultivate the vehicle company according to the traditional path, it is too late and the feasibility is not high; if the existing car companies are cultivated, it is still difficult to be different from the objective gap.
Chapter B 丨 The new opportunity comes from the new trend of grabbing industrial changes
In this case, does Sichuan still have the opportunity to overtake the road?
A number of interviewees frankly said that if the industrial structure is stable, I am afraid that the opportunity is not great. However, the new energy vehicle industry is still in the process of profound changes, and the industrial chain supply chain is still being changed and even reshaped -in the process of these changes and reshaping, there are opportunities in Sichuan.
Seize the "steep growth period" opportunity
Opportunities in Sichuan, the development of "super expectations" from the industry.
Ouyang Ming, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Association, judged that the electricization of automobiles has broken through the critical point and entered a steep growth period.
Entering the steep growth period, the direct opportunity brought to Sichuan is to undertake new capacity.
A bigger opportunity is the "cross -border" attracted by the steep growth period. Interviewees suggested that Sichuan can actively encourage cross -border giants and local car companies to practice the "Huawei Zhichi Model Model".
There are many benefits of this model. On the one hand, it is conducive to the "borrowing" of local car companies, and on the other hand, it is conducive to local attracting "cost reduction".
This model also has high feasibility.
Some segmented tracks that have not been illuminated by the media spotlight due to steep growth are also worthy of attention. A typical representative is a new energy commercial vehicle.
Seize the "second half of the industry" opportunity
The opportunity of Sichuan also came from the "second half" of the industry.
The electricization of the first half of the automotive industry has been basically completed, entering the intelligent stage of the second half. Intelligence and networking technology are more likely to reflect the differentiation of different cars than electrification, which is the focus of competition in the next stage. Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have a more natural connection with intelligent and network connection. Almost all interviewees believe that intelligent networking is the opportunity to achieve overtaking of the new energy vehicle industry in Sichuan.
What does the opportunity here refer to? It can be answered in three steps: First, the above trend will trigger changes in the new energy vehicle industry chain, which is born to a series of new core components and industrial links; second, these components and links are not only new economic growth points, but also for the new economic growth point, but also The new energy vehicle industry chain has a strategic component and has a leading role in the entire industrial chain. Third, developing these components and links, Sichuan has the opportunity and conditions.
Interviewees suggested that Sichuan is most likely to achieve concentration of "super -vehicle" fields for intelligent networking and actively carry out corporate attracting and cultivation.
Other rocks
Sort out 31 provinces and city new energy vehicle industry planning
These information worthy of Sichuan's attention
Kawaguan Think Tank Researcher Pu Nanxi
In the past year, many provinces and cities across the country have released the "14th Five -Year Plan" for the new energy vehicle industry, outline the goals and paths of the development of the local new energy vehicle industry. Sichuan Guan think tank sorted out the relevant plan and found that a lot of information was conveyed, which is worthy of attention.
From the plan, the vehicle output
The production of new energy vehicles nationwide will continue to grow rapidly, and Sichuan may become a "low -lying area"
15 provinces and cities announced the output target of new energy vehicles to be achieved in 2025, with a total of more than 10 million vehicles.
China has been the world's largest new energy vehicle production and sales country for many years. From the perspective of the total output planning of the output, this momentum will remain.
Last year, Sichuan New Energy Vehicle production was 64,000, accounting for less than two % of the national output. If this trend will not be effectively changed, Sichuan may become the "low -lying area" of new energy vehicles in the country.
Can you change this situation? Interviewees suggest that Sichuan's market potential and the foundation of fuel vehicle manufacturing to achieve breakthroughs.
Look at car models from planning
Many provinces and cities seek to "change the road" from the subdivided track. It is recommended that Sichuan seeking overtaking in the field of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles
In the country, in addition to taking into account the routine arrangements of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and special vehicles, some provinces and cities have also proposed the goals of their own specific fields.
At present, the passenger car market across the country has been divided by head enterprises. The provinces and cities that are in the rear position can only exert their respective advantages and cultivate deeply on the track. Such as Yunnan and Guizhou's approach belong to the "overtaking", and strive to seize the opportunity to segmented the market.
Interviewees believe that the commercial vehicle of hydrogen fuel cells is a model that has local characteristics and has formed a certain technical accumulation and production capacity. It is recommended to do a good job of supporting infrastructure, and carry out commercial vehicles of hydrogen fuel cells as soon as possible, especially the promotion and application of hydrogen fuel cell buses and intercity buses, and strive to become a member of the national hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration urban agglomeration as soon as possible.
From planning, charging pile construction
All localities emphasize to follow the principle of "moderate advancement".
In terms of charging facilities, 16 provinces and cities announced the pile construction plan, of which 11 provinces and cities have exceeded 150,000.
By analyzing the planning goals of relevant provinces and cities, experts told Chuanguan Think Tank that these provinces and cities generally emphasize that the number of quantitative planning must follow the principles of moderate advancement.
Experts suggest that the government does not have to have specific plans in quantity, but pay attention to the planning of charging venues.
Specifically, the construction planning of infrastructure such as Sichuan charging piles, experts believe that there are still some difficult points to pay attention to. For example, the supporting facilities on the road between cities.
While building the infrastructure of charging piles, Guangdong Province launched a series of related standards and a unified "Guangdong Yizhou" platform. Experts believe that allowing charging facilities to have a unified standard, not only can it facilitate consumers, but also promote the sales of new energy vehicles.
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