If you go bankrupt at the age of 35, how are there a possibility of counterattack?

Photo source: Los Lunes Al Sol (2002) of the movie "Monday in the Sun"

Seeing this poster of "Monday in the Sun", what do you think of?

The main character of the film was sitting on the ferry, behind the scenery of urban modernization. What are they thinking?

This is a film that truly reflects the real life of Spain's contemporary society. The dock company is closed, and everyone is unemployed. Where should the urban people go unemployed? The same problem is also questioned by the public in our social life.

Just search for the keywords of#35 -year -old unemployment#, you can see countless media related reports and the parties' self -report -the new technological revolution is creating structural abandonment of the people. This is definitely not a sensational arbitrary conclusion.

The youth of the Internet means that some people are being completely exiled. They are not only excessive labor, but superfluous. Some people over 30 years of age are becoming structural abandonment of the people.

"Human connections sell more insurance, and the connections are running less and no one to takeaway." This is definitely not an ideal situation, but if we go bankrupt at the age of 35, how may we have a counterattack? Zhan Lujun invited you to chat together.

The following content comes from: Urban Data Group Author: League Branch Book

Recently, I saw a very interesting question: there are 100 people in the room, each of which has 100 yuan, they are playing a game. In each round of games, everyone must take out one yuan to randomly give another person. What is the wealth distribution of the last 100 people?

The following are three different answers, please drop down and vote

We might as well regard this game as a simplified model of social wealth distribution to simulate the operation of the world. We assume that everyone starts to play games with the initial funds of 100 yuan at the age of 18, play once a day, and retires at the age of 65. "Taking out one yuan a day" can be understood as basic daily consumption. Based on this calculation, people have to play 17,000 games in their lives, that is, they get 17,000 opportunities for wealth distribution. It can be said that in this simplified model, the key to determining a person's wealth is luck.

Let's answer below.

Under the above rules, the results of 17,000 times the game are shown in the figure below:

(Figure: 1. The horizontal axis label in the figure above represents the number of a player. The high and low changes of the pillar reflect the change of the player's wealth. Give 1 yuan for others, but still have the opportunity to get the money given by others.)

It can be seen that the changes in the wealth value of each player are extremely severe. In order to facilitate the distribution of the entire social wealth, we made the following figure according to the sorting of wealth value:

(Figure: The horizontal axis label in the figure above represents the player's sorting (non -number). The higher the wealth, the more wealth. In the beginning, the wealth value of everyone is equal. As the game progresses, the gap between the wealth value is getting greater and larger.)

That's right, the distribution of wealth is close to the distribution of power law (the conclusion is only a program simulation, not a precise solution of mathematics). Finally, there will be few rich and many poor people in society:

The wealthy value of the richest person is about 3.5 times the initial wealth;

TOP 10%of the rich has about 30%of the wealth, and TOP 20%of the rich man holds about 50%of the wealth; 60%of the wealth of people will shrink to less than 100 yuan.

In this way, just the difference between luck allows most people's money to run into a small number of people's pockets. Even under the most fair rule, the world still shows the cruel side.

On this basis, we have designed more scenes and simulated with programs.

Is it allowed to borrow debt to make the world better?

In real society, the situation will be more complicated. For example, when we have no money, we can also find relatives, friends, banks, and investors to borrow debts. In the case of allowing borrowing, the results of the game are shown in the figure below (after sorting results):

the result shows:

At the end of the game, the wealthy value of the richest people is about 4 times the initial wealth;

TOP 10%of the wealthy people have about 33%of the wealth, and TOP 20%of the wealthy people hold about 56%of the wealth; about 25%of people carry their debts with a maximum liabilities of about 200 yuan.

That's right. Although borrowing debt can make us more room for turns when there is no way, it is clear that the bonus of good luck makes the successful people richer, and the bonus of poor luck also makes the poor poor.

Can I really counterattack?

We use the standard deviation of all players' wealth value to measure the degree of differentiation of the rich and poor in society, and make pictures according to the time sequence:

(Figure: The horizontal axis indicates the number of game wheels, and the vertical axis indicates the standard difference between social wealth)

It can be seen that the early standard deviation changes in the early game are the most intense. After the 6000-6500 rounds, the changes in the standard deviation tend to be gentle, that is, the overall form of social wealth distribution has stabilized. According to the corresponding rules of games and life, the player is 35 years old.

This result tells us that before the age of 35, the gap between people has completely opened.

Looking further, if a person goes bankrupt at the age of 35, is there any possibility of counterattack?

Among the simulation results, 15 people were in a state of bankruptcy (liabilities) on the last day of the 35 -year -old, and their wealth value and ranking later shown in the figure below: (Figure: The red pillars in the picture above are at 35 in 35 in 35 Players who went bankrupt at the age, the green pillar is the other players. The high change of the red pillar on the vertical axis represents the change of wealth, and the change on the position on the horizontal axis indicates its ranking change.)

It can be seen that when the 15 people retired at the age of 65, seven people were still in a state of bankruptcy; 8 people paid off their debts and accumulated wealth, but there was still quite a gap between the rich.

It seems that after 35 years of age, although after bankruptcy, there is still half the probability of returning to the lives of ordinary people, it is quite difficult to counterattack the rich.

Therefore, getting rich should be early, and the old -age counterattack is more like a legend.

What is the difference between rich second generation and ordinary people?

In a real society, everyone's starting point is actually different. There are always some rich second generations and rich three generations, and they have taken advantage of the beginning of wealth games. This should also be considered in our model.

In order to simplify calculations, we assume that there are only two types of players: 90 ordinary players (setting the same as above)+10 rich second -generation players. The initial wealth of the rich second -generation players is 500 yuan. They need to pay twice the money in each round of games. At the same time, the chance of getting wealth is also twice the ordinary people. The results of the game are shown in the figure below (after the results of sorting):

(Figure: The red pillars in the picture above are rich second -generation players, and the green pillars are ordinary players.)

Although this distribution form is basically consistent with the results of all ordinary players: the proportion of social wealth and debt ratio of the rich people of TOP10 and TOP20 is similar, but carefully, all of the rich people in TOP5 and the rich among the rich people of TOP10 10 The 7 are rich second -generation players.

We choose 5 in the rich second -generation players (red lines) and ordinary players (green lines) to draw a map of their wealth value:

It can be seen that although there are also "prodigals" among rich second -generation players, they still have a high probability to maintain wealth value at a high level. The rich second generations and ordinary people live in two worlds, and occasionally intersect. If you are lucky to be lucky, then the luck of the rich second generation is obviously excellent, and the good luck at the beginning will continue to accumulate and amplify, even the most defeated second generation of the rich second generation is still in the middle class.

But as an ordinary person, you have to have excellent luck to reach the same height as the second generation of the loser.

Will the taxation of the rich change the wealth distribution?

In order to alleviate the many contradictions brought by the differentiation of the rich and the poor, there are many means of transfer payment in real society. Taxation is one of them.

In this round of games, the initial wealth of the player is 100 yuan. In each round of the game, players have the same probability of getting 1 yuan. However, if the wealth value of the selected player in this round of the game is higher than 200 yuan, he can only get 60%of the income; and the other 40%of the income will be divided into all players with a wealth value of less than 0 yuan (equivalent to equivalent to 0 yuan (equivalent to equivalent to the equivalent The subsistence allowance of bankruptcy). The simulation results are shown in the figure below:

It can be seen that under the rules of "tax+minimum insurance", the distribution of social wealth is still highly polarized. The difference is that they basically eliminate the bankruptcymen, and the rich people are not so rich.

The tax collection can slowly divide the world, but it is not easy to change the cruel nature of the world (unless it is greatly strengthened to the transfer of transfer payment).

Is it better to work hard?

Most of us have no fortunes of fortune, nor have we wealthy luck, and have no waist tangled dads, let alone eat the minimum insurance. If we want to change our destiny, we can only choose to work harder to strive for a better life.

We assume that the initial wealth of each player is still 100 yuan, but 10 people have doubled their efforts than others, so as to gain a 1%competitive advantage, that is, the probability of winning the income is 1%higher than others. What about the simulation result?

(Figure: The red pillars in the picture above are more hard -working players, green pillars are ordinary players.)

It can be seen that the overall distribution of social wealth has not changed, and luck is still the key to determining whether you succeed. Robert Frank summarized the three principles of luck dynamics in "Success and Luck":

1. Luck can be enlarged;

2. Fortune can be accumulated;

3. The more intense competition, the more important the luck.

Fortunately, this test tells us a happy answer. Nine of the 10 hard -working players have entered the rich TOP20!

Yes, although the most successful player is not necessarily the hardest one, most of the hard work is pretty good. Thanks to this cruel world to leave us a way for us.

Seeing this, I believe that readers have already had their own answers to this question:

How to face this cruel world?

That is

Either

Can have surprisingly good luck

Either

Strive to make yourself successful

- END -