Can the Taiwan Strait situation wave clouds and the United States do not break?

Author:Phoenix Television Time:2022.08.26

Recently, the situation in the Taiwan Strait can be described as "Mountain Rain wants to come to the wind and full building". With Pelosi, like the Dominopan effect, the forces of all parties in the world may directly or indirectly participate in it, and the whole situation does not stop. Instead, it has become more and more intense. In recent years, the largest military exercise in the United States and South Korea also appeared in August, and Northeast Asia has intensified.

The situation of the Taiwan Strait is turbulent, and the Western Pacific military exercise continues. Many national leaders are very worried. Singapore's Prime Minister Li Xianlong once again stood on a public occasion and called on the Chinese and American leaders to contact to cool down as soon as possible.

Gree "One Tiger and One Talk" in this issue

Discuss with you: Can the Taiwan Strait's situation wave cloud and the United States do not break?

Moderator Hu Yihu: How tense is the situation in the Taiwan Strait? Why do many military experts say that the current situation of the Taiwan Strait is equivalent to the "quasi -war state". Is it so serious? Some people say that the current situation of the Taiwan Strait is in the worst situation. Is there any sign of ease? If you want to ease, where is the key?

△ Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China

Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China: There are too high estimates here, and there have been crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Although the situation is the most tense in recent years, compared with the Taiwan Strait crisis, this time is still different. The possibility. However, from the current point of view, China and the United States adhere to the standpoint of completely opposing, and support their positions with corresponding military and political operations. It should be said that they should pay attention to prevent the Chinese and American military forces from directly, in person, in person, in person, in person, Confrontation and conflict. Therefore, the current situation is very serious, but it has not been so serious in history.

△ Beijing Foreign Studies University Regional and Global Governance Higher Research Institute lecturers, Taihe Think Tank researcher Chen Zheng

Chen Zheng, a lecturer and a researcher at the Global Institute of Foreign Studies and Global Governance of the University of Foreign Languages and Global Governance: In fact, I also think that it is not appropriate to upgrade it to "crisis" this time. I have studied the first artillery Golden Gate, the second artillery Golden Gate, and the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. The most dangerous moment may be the first time. I turned over the archives of the National Security Council. At that time, the United States not only had a very accurate assessment of the military distribution power of mainland China, but the United States even proposed that if it is to prevent the Chinese mainland and the PLA from attacking Taiwan, how many ships need to be dispatched. How many fighters, how much ammunition, how much money, and even an assessment of a nuclear weapon. So this time is actually much lower than the first time.

Liu Yawei, the director of China Project, USA (US): I think this time it should be the "Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis". From the perspective of intensity, the missiles, rockets and other equipment used by China are very strong. The area is around the island. Breaking through the so -called "midline" and entering the territory of Taiwan, it may also be destroyed. However, in the United States, the United States is relatively calm. In fact, the American people do not pay much attention to the Taiwan Strait. They are more concerned about the Haihu Manor. The Trump family was searched. Therefore, on the surface, the United States is not nervous.

△ Taiwan retired generals handsome people

Taiwan's retired generals handsome people: This crisis is a very wonderful phenomenon. During the 1996 missile crisis, all parties in Taiwan were very nervous, and ordinary people were very nervous because for decades. For the first time, the military was relatively. Not very nervous. This time it was strange. The people were not nervous. Only three percent of them were nervous. Which 30 %? First, active service soldiers and veterans knew that the situation was serious; second, people who had an international view and were commonly tense for military; third, the rich people were nervous. 70 % of the non -nervous, in these 70 %, are divided into three parts. One is a green camp with the hardcore, which is a kind of person superstitious that the United States will send troops to assist and hold Tsai Ing -wen's thighs. Another is the common people of the civilians, which is useless to be nervous. It is not nervous or useless. The last kind of person is to die for the DPP. I hope to solve this matter earlier. Long pain is worse than short pain. So the strange phenomenon this time is that the people we understand are more nervous, and those who do not understand are the same, which is a completely opposite response.

△ Military commentator Zhou Chenming

Military commentator Zhou Chenming: Although the crisis has not risen to the height of the "Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis", the signs are very bad. The United States is doing a lot of planning, which may be targeted at the surrounding of the Taiwan Strait or the entire Western Pacific. China comes to a new round of military deployment. It is rumored that the United States may pass the aircraft carrier combat group from the so -called "Strait midline". This is a very serious provocation, and it will definitely intensify the contradiction in the future. In addition, allies in the United States and Japan and other Asia -Pacific regions, including Australia, Britain, and even Germany, have made some sounds on the Taiwan Strait issue. If the Taiwan Strait crisis has evolved from a regional issue or China's internal affairs to the global issue, then I feel that it is not necessary to call it "the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis." Now the crisis has not been completely fermented, and it is difficult to talk about where the future goes. So it is not appropriate to define it in a secondary crisis, or a quasi -crisis.

Moderator Hu Yihu: In the future, how will the strategy behind the PLA be upgraded? Where is the variable?

Military commentator Zhou Chenming: First of all, we see that this time is the first time in the real sense to surround the entire Taiwan island through firepower. In the future, if the situation is further upgraded, it is likely that this mouth will be tighter and tighter, so that some people in Taiwan cannot stand it. If a continuous military exercise is carried out, it will have a great impact on Taiwan. Maybe the people in Taiwan still cannot feel the existence of the crisis. Once the supply line encounters a crisis, such as energy, food, or other things is affected, Taiwan's prices have begun to rise, and some panic events have begun to occur. This is true. The crisis begins. Moderator Hu Yihu: Kissinger said that only when the whole is peaceful and hopeless in Beijing, it will move against Taiwan. At present, it has not arrived at this step. Do you agree with such an analysis?

Liu Yawei, the director of China Project, USA (US): I agree with such an analysis. As long as there is a need for peace, the mainland will not give up and uniform, and the martial arts will make the world laugh at the Chinese people who have no wisdom, no ability, and patience. As for martial arts, I think many people in China are too easy to say. It is easy to play, but how do you end after playing?

Moderator Hu Yihu: On August 12, the White House made a statement on the Taiwan Strait issue, saying that the Chinese counter -control action was an excessive response, clearly stated that he did not accept the new status quo created by Beijing, and predicted that the U.S. military would cross the Taiwan Strait. How to interpret the U.S. military preview will cross the Taiwan Strait? The current combat mode is completely different from the past. Does the United States have so -called new combat and new play?

Military commentator Zhou Chenming: The United States still hopes to pass through the Taiwan Strait, because the United States currently faces many challenges in the entire external affairs. At this time, if it cannot respond to Beijing hard, it will be very shameful in front of its Far East allies. However, the United States does not want war or conflict with China, and Beijing does not want similar things. So what way to achieve it requires very skillful skills. It must be cleverly displayed in the United States' military capabilities and cannot irritate Beijing. This is the problem that the United States needs to consider at present. In the next few weeks, the United States will definitely come up with all kinds Methods and schemes are deduced, trying to find a way to find two in the United States.

△ Yang Nan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Yang Nan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: At present, the United States has made more feedback, which is based on the statement of China and a series of behaviors. In the eyes of many Washington observer, this actually means that the China -US issue has entered a new stage on the Taiwan Strait issue and reached the watershed. In this case, as a hegemonic country, it is impossible for it to look at the situation changes and cannot accept such changes. Therefore, it is necessary to make a tough statement. On the one hand, it is also a domestic politician in the United States. One means. On the other hand, there is also a representation of the United States global allies.

Moderator Hu Yihu: In the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, we saw that the aircraft carrier of "Nimitz" was directly crossing the Taiwan Strait. Will the same drama in 2022 be staged?

△ Liu Yawei, director of China Project, Carter Center in the United States (US)

Liu Yawei, the director of China Project, USA (Midea): I think it is possible. However, there is no need to follow the United States' command stick in this matter. If it comes over, it is part of China. Essence The leaders on both sides of the strait have their own wisdom and their own vision. They don't need to consider what the United States does every day. Since it is one piece, it is not necessary to do so much pressure on themselves.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China: The Chinese and American governments are more serious about military. What is preparation? Preparation of war is not just relying on pictures or deductibles. Sometimes it is necessary to take practical and very high -intensity military operations. In the process, to observe each other and to observe themselves, and both sides act according to their own troops. The structure is very different. We pay special attention to land -based missiles, while the United States attaches importance to aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, etc. Chinese military power is rising rapidly, but people who want to fight will always take the other party's strength and potential seriously. The actual potential of the United States is the number an opponent we need to take seriously.

Moderator Hu Yihu: The United States' forward defense Carter said that once China and the United States start, its main battlefield may not be in the Taiwan Strait. The United States will only choose a place where the U.S. military can win against the PLA. At present Can you win, what about your opinion?

Taiwan's retired generals handsome people: In the first island chain, the United States has lost any advantages because Taiwan has no garrison, and the Philippines has maintained neutrality. Vietnam has also been neutral. This island chain has long been broken. Mainland China occupies the advantages of land, so it has to adjust the deployment to the second island chain. The new deployment is to decentralize the deployment missiles. Many small islands south of Japan, including Ishigaki Island with missiles, returned west of Guam, and then The patrol missile launched by the sea submarine and the missiles on these islands to counter the countermeasures. This is the strategy of the United States in the future. Its only pillar is Japan. Taiwan is regarded as a pawn. It is the purpose of consumption, not a decisive battle with China. There is still a little gap between the strength of both China and the United States. When will it be able to intercept the ultra-high-speed missiles such as "Dongfeng -17" and "Eagle Strike-21", so that they dare to face the PLA in the first guide chain in the first guide chain. In the war, there is no chance of victory. It will not fight. Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China: I really agree with the view that the United States will never have a scale war with China in the Taiwan Strait. If the Taiwan Strait broke out, the United States, especially the United States, Japan, would conduct considerable large -scale military interference. In this sense, China would also use the ocean around the Taiwan Island as a possible main battlefield.

The history of the Taiwan issue is clear and clear, and the objective facts of the two sides of the strait are clear. The current situation of the Taiwan Strait is facing a new round of tension because the Taiwan authorities have repeatedly attempted to "rely on the beauty", and some of the United States intentionally engaged in "the Taiwan", and the two parties made together to change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait. This trend is very dangerous. It is playing fire, and the players must balize themselves.