Putin announced the largest expansion plan in the past ten years, and Russia has fallen into a long -term and fierce deadlock

A way of "expanding the combat effectiveness in the context of not doing the total mobilization"

The expansion of the army was 137,000, and the total scale of armed forces exceeded 2 million. This is the recent decision announced by Russian President Putin and the largest expansion plan for the Russian army since the military reform in 2012.

On August 25, local time, Putin signed a presidential order to update the scale of the preparation of Russian armed forces. Among them, soldiers' preparation has increased from 1.01 million to 1.15 million, including the total number of Russian armed forces including border guards and other departments. Rise to 2.03 million. The new establishment will take effect on January 1, 2023.

After half a year of "special military operations" for Ukraine, this expansion was considered by some Western media as supplementary measures taken by the Russian army for the "huge loss" in the war, and it was also the latest "conventional war deterrence" for NATO. However, there are also media reports that the Russian army has had a trend and its own development logic.

Screenshot of Russian media expansion reports

From disarmament to expansion

Before the expansion of the army, the "disarmament" was the "main theme" of the Russian military reform.

During the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the total number of armed forces inherited by the Russian army was about 2.8 million. Considering factors such as external environmental changes and economic downturn, from 1992 to 1999, then Russian President Yeltsin reducing the Russian troops to 1.2 million people through 6 rounds of large -scale disarmament. After Pujing officially took office in Russia in 2000, he opened a new round of strong army plans. With the start of the second Chechen war, the pace of the Russian army's disarmament slowed down. However, after the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, the Russian army opened a comprehensive modernization reform under the leadership of the two national defense ministers, Sherikov and Hogu, in accordance with their own command systems, weapons and equipment and troops. On the schedule.

From 2008 to 2012, the Russian army carried out a recent large -scale disarmament, focusing on the bloated officer system that had failed to touch the previous rounds of disarmament, and learned the western officers and soldiers to 1: 5 to 1: 6. As a result, the scale of the Russian military officers decreased from 355,000 to 150,000, of which general officers cut off by 20%, and the colonel officers were reduced by 65%. The entire central command system's officers decreased from more than 20,000 to 8,500. After this round of special disarmament, the Russian troops remained at the scale of 1 million.

However, since the outbreak of the Donbass war in 2014, it has stopped disarmament and its small -scale expansion has become a new trend of Russia's military reform.

In 2015, with the deepening of the modernization of the Russian army and the reduction of national defense funding, it was rumored that the Russian army might have arranged again. At that time, the deputy minister of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Shefzosova, publicly stated that despite the reduction of the budget, the Ministry of National Defense did not plan to lay off layoffs and was not ready to reduce the salary and allowance of soldiers. On the contrary, in 2017, two years later, Putin launched a small -scale expansion for the first time, increasing the approval of the Russian soldiers by 13,000.

These new movements are generally related to the process of Russia's military reform. During the "officer officer's disarmament", the problem that the Russian army was anxious to solve was to straighten out the command system and the army structure. After the completion of the disarmament, the Russian army was able to realize the "Military Region Main War" pattern that has been hoped to formed since the 1990s, dividing the national military power into the four major military regions, transferred the combat command function from the military and soldiers to the military region, and carried out the "division to reform the brigades. "The construction of a joint combat group army with multiple arms. The "special military operation" starting in 2022 is the first large -scale combat test of the system.

After the reform of the command system, the current Russian Defense Minister Shaygou has represented the upgrade. By 2020, the degree of modernization of the Russian army will increase from 16%six years ago to 70%, and the Army will update more than 5,000 new tanks and armored vehicles. But in the process, the Russian army began to face new problems in technical talents.

The analysis of Tas Club has quoted the President of Russia's Geopolical College, the analysis of the Russian missile and the Academy of Artillery Sciences, and pointed out that high -tech positions that need to be trained for a long time are naturally completed by more professional contracting soldiers instead of enlisting soldiers, but After the modernization reform, the past recruitment system was even difficult to meet the needs of the grass -roots positions of mechanized troops, because the recruitment was only one year, but "driving a truck requires many years of practice, and the professional tank driving skills can not be achieved in one year."

At the same time, the modern reform of the Russian army in the architecture also needs to be supplemented by personnel. In terms of the construction of the military, the Russian army has rebuilt the Air Heavenly Army since 2015; the scale of airborne soldiers who will be used as a strategic delivery force will double; The department and the information department respond to the needs of "comprehensive war". Cordinov, the director of the Russian International Affairs Commission, told China News Weekly that Russia also hopes to establish a larger and more effective rapid response troops in collective security organizations, and invest in some areas of safety risks. Essence It is difficult for the old Russian system to meet the needs of these local expansion.

A person who participated in the Russian and US military "Yi Bei River Dialogue" told China News Weekly that after the reform of Sheljukov and Hogu, the Russian military command and military quality have greatly improved. However, a joint combat group army built by the U.S. military, a group army has only one brigade logistical support unit. The person believes that on the one hand, the Russian logistical equipment technology is relatively backward; on the other hand, the Russian ground forces still attach importance to artillery, and the heavy firepower of artillery in the group army should be equipped with a large scale. In fact, a larger logistics unit should be equipped. Under the comprehensive role of many factors, in the small -scale expansion and adjustment since 2014, the Russian army rebuilt a large number of grass -roots officers and non -commissioned officers when the Russian army was rebuilt to supplement the ability of grass -roots technical synergy. The preparation of 70,000 officers was added. On the other hand, in the face of the needs of technical and logistics positions for contract soldiers, the Russian army expanded the contractor on a large scale and relaxed the restrictions on social talents. In 2014, the Russian airborne troops recruited for the first time to open women for the first time. In the same year, the number of soldiers in the Russian army exceeded the recruitment of soldiers for the first time, reaching 295,000.

At present, the Russian official has not announced which areas and departments will focus on the expansion of the army. Essence

The change from disarmament to expansion is just a case of "repeated" policies in the Russian army reform. In this regard, Putin once pointed out that military reforms will not happen overnight, "some problems need to be repeated multiple times to get the best results."

Can't see "hope of peace"

On the second day of Putin's announcement of expansion, Belarus President Lukashenko disclosed on August 26 that Belarus has re -deployed the Air Force power that can be equipped with nuclear weapons. This is also part of the agreement reached by Lukashenko and Putin in June this year Essence "They (the surrounding NATO countries) should realize that if they choose to upgrade the situation, no weapons can save them." Lukashenko said.

The media believes that the new news released by Lukashenko is similar to Putin's "nuclear deterrence" action in March this year, showing the suppression of the Russian army on the NATO countries in strategic nuclear forces; while Putin's expansion plan announced that Russia's Russia The army will further enhance the ability to defeat larger enemies in conventional wars. With the background of long -term confrontation and remote weapons such as the long -term confrontation and the west to Ukraine's assistance to the West, the expansion of the army can further "unlock" the scale restrictions of the summoning soldiers. The "Institute of War" in the US think tank announced that this is a way to "expand combat effectiveness in the context of not conducting a general mobilization."

Ceffkov recently pointed out that the current risk of larger wars in Europe depends on what the fundamental goal of the Western world and Russia around the Ukraine crisis is. He believes that with the changes in war, the ultimate goal of the Western world is not just "defending Ukraine", but to defeat Russia. The goal of Russia is not "occupying Ukraine", but to end the Western world's attempt to expand to the "post -Soviet space". The fundamental goal of both sides has essential contradictions, reflected in the Ukrainian crisis, which is the conflict and deterrence.

On August 24th on the "Independence Day" of Ukraine, Ukraine President Zeleiski said in his speech that Ukraine was "reunited with Russia's invasion" and said that Ukraine would recapture Crimea and East to the East. Occupy area. Zelei also said before that Ukraine will no longer negotiate with other countries and will exhaust all ways to let the Russian army withdraw from the Crimean Peninsula. In response to the current offensive of the Russian army, the Russian Defense Minister, Shiyugu, said that the Russian army deliberately slowed its military operation in Ukraine in order to reduce civilian casualties. From the perspective of analysts, the most likely situation between Russia and Ukraine is the long -term and fierce deadlock, and both parties are not interested in diplomatic channels. In the next six months, they still cannot see "hope of peace".

Coltinov pointed out that in the Ukrainian crisis, Russia is concerned about "bigger issues", that is, European security issues. Finland and Sweden have further expanded the Western military alliance brought by NATO. However, the outbreak of war has limited the possibility of all dialogue. Furthermore, Europe does not exist in the culture of military reserve control 30 years ago. Therefore, in the short term, the response methods of each party will be more intense. He also pointed out that the current Russia's views on the Ukraine crisis, NATO expansion, and Russia's continued "special military operations" have become more consistent.

Author: [email protected])

Edit: Xu Fangqing

Operation editor: Wang Lin

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