The truth about the Russian army withdrew from Snake Island ...

The Russian army unexpectedly announced the evacuation of Snake Island on June 30, because of goodwill, not hindering the establishment of a channel for the United Nations to transport agricultural products out of Ukraine. Ukraine said that they drove the Russian army out of Snake Island. So, what is the fact? What does it mean? How will the future war develop?

1. What do both sides say

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 30th that it will withdraw troops from Snake Island on the 30th, which shows that Russia will not hinder the establishment of a channel for the United Nations to transport agricultural products out of Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the move will make the Ukraine government unable to use the grain crisis to hype, and attribute the grain crisis to the Russian army from allowing food to be unable to ship out.

The Russian side also kicked the ball to Ukraine -in order to restore the supply, the Ukraine should clean up the mines of the coast along the coast of the Black Sea and the waters of the port, including the port waters.

However, Ukraine's narrative of the Snake Island incident is completely different.

Snake Island was shelled at night on the 29th

The Ukrainian armed forces said on Thursday that the Russian forces evacuated because they performed a "success" military operation.

On Monday, the Ukrainian army said they hit the second missile defense system on the island and several Russian officers and soldiers. From Wednesday night to the early morning of Thursday, the Urpicious Army once again implemented a military crackdown on Snake Island.

Earlier on Thursday, the Ukrainian armed forces stated that they were evaluating the results of this night operation. It could be regarded as "success". "The enemy hurriedly evacuated the remaining garrison with two speedboats and may leave the island. "

Valeri Zaluigini, commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that "occupant" has evacuated after "the cannot resist our artillery, missiles and air strikes". The measures liberated part of our territory's strategic importance. "

Second, the threat of the Ukraine's shelling is getting bigger and bigger

"The Snake Island, which has been controlled by the Russian army since February, has suddenly left, obviously not exactly because of" goodwill ". The analysis of the Russian Pikabu website said that since June, Ukraine's shell on Snake Island has become increasingly increasing many.

A report from the Southern Command of Ukraine said on June 27 that they fired rockets and shells to Snake Island and recorded more than 10 hits. On June 17, 21, 22, and 25, the Ukrainian armed forces also issued similar statements.

In addition, some experts analyzed the tactical tactics of the Urpical Army to consume the Russian garrison of the Snake Island by increasing the number of sheets:

"In the dark, the target was marked by the drone. After that, the grenade cannon launched an attack through indirect firing. The task was not to hit the target of the Russian army, but to consume the ammunition of the snake island air defense system. On a busy night, in the morning, Ukraine artillery began to work more accurately, and this shell can last for several hours. In addition, the attack intensity in June increased. Sound, then you will hear every 5 minutes in the last 5 minutes. "

"The tactics of the Ukraine are effective. Now, the actual control of the island is tantamount to suicide." Some Russian experts analyzed this.

Why did Ukrainian artillery threatens bigger and bigger? It is an important factor in the arrival of Western aid artillery.

The analysis of the Russian "Viewpoint" on the 30th quoted military expert analysis, saying that from intelligence, we can know that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing to attack Snake Island, which is difficult to repel them with existing troops. They may use the French "Caesar" self -propelled artillery provided by the West. These self -propelled artillery are deployed on the island of Curobasky. The island is located in the Odessa area near the Danubekou. Essence This shelling threatened the lives of the people on the Snake Island, so the Russian army made a decision to withdraw troops.

Third, the Russian army may give up in Odessa amphibious landing

"When we captured the island's collar, didn't we know that it would be attacked by the Ukrainian artillery fire?" The netizens of the Russian Perspectives raised a sharp question. I believe this is also the doubts in many Russians.

Russia's "Ukraina.ru" website interviewed Yuri Knotov, the director of the Air Defense Museum Museum, answered a series of questions.

Kettov

Knotov said that at first, the Russian army plans to use Snake Island during an amphibious landing in Odessa. However, the Ukrainian army set off a large minefield, which made it difficult for the ships to approach the coast, and the coast was buried. In addition, it is now reported that Ukraine has received Western anti -ship missiles. These are older missiles, but they are still not so easy to defend, not all Russian warships have systems that can intercept these cruise missiles. France also stated that it will provide its own missiles, and the height of these missiles is usually 1-2 meters.

The analysis of Russian experts actually acknowledged that the initial goal of the Russian army was too high, and there was no possibility of achievement at all. Snake Island became a chicken rib.

In a sense, the evacuation of Snake Island is similar to Kyiv. The original goal was too high, and later had to give up.

A few months ago, the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow" actually reflected the fact that the Russian warship and the Western intelligence anti -ship weapons were supported. Wufang has not found a good way to reverse the disadvantages on the Eastern battlefield, and turns the offensive to the southern front. Snake Island has always been the key attack target. There are constant news that the Russian warship is sunk, and even the drilling platform has been attacked. With the deployment of more Western weapons, the disadvantages of the Russian warships are becoming more and more significant. At this time, the significance of adhering to Snake Island is not great. The evacuation of Snake Island also marked that the Russian army basically abandoned the strategy through amphibious operations and won Adessa.

"Haimas" system

Kettopov said that although the evacuation of Snake Island is unhappy, it is too risky to risk the risk of losing ships and people's lives. After the operation of landing Odessa was suspended, we decided not to let the soldiers stay on the island on the risk of life because the island was constantly being shot. The enemy has a new "Haimas" system, and it is easy to kill the entire island. Its accuracy is about 7-10 meters. In view of all this, we left the island.

Knotov also believes that the moment Odessa's turn was captured. But not many people want to be as fast as. After the Russian army occupied Lixica Sikh, the troops will deploy attacks against Slavicank/Clarmatusk, and the Russian army needs to concentrate. Because you need to destroy the 30,000 Ukraine there in one fell swoop, you need to gather 100,000 troops.

Fourth, how to fight the battle of Snake Island in the future

Snake Island has a small area, flat terrain, and easy to attack. Whoever keeps this island is uncomfortable.

Therefore, after the Russian army's evacuation, the Ukraine may not send troops to defend the snake island, and it is difficult to keep it even if they sent troops.

However, the Russian evacuation has weakened its control over the western Black Sea, leaving room for the Ukraine to open the Black Sea Channel. The Ukraine is likely to transport various aid here, including military assistance.

The Russian army naturally does not allow the Ukraine to move freely and will counterfeiting.

"The next stage of Snake Island battle is to destroy the Navy and airborne attack capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces in the nearby region," said the source of the Russian telegram channel "Rybar".

Alexander Batos, the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, also told the Viewpoint: "I think the next step may be a statement of Russia's completely non -militaryization of Snake Island. In the future, it is necessary to stop the deployment of the Ukrainian armed forces there."

The Batosh family added that the United Nations called on Moscow to ensure that the exports of Ukraine's grains were unimpeded. Because they asked for this, they should ensure that the island's status, including non -military affairs.

"How will we quickly conquer the Snake Island with the smallest loss?" Knotov's view of this is that if necessary, the Russian army will use high -precision weapons to combat the island on a large scale, and then organize amphibious operations. But so far, this is not meaningful, because it is necessary to solve the war of Donbas first.

Source: No. 10 of the Privy

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