Hong Kong Media: Following the United States "Caihua" is not attractive

Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" August 1 article, original title: Why does the United States curb China's "friendly bank outsourcing" plan? "You'an Outsourcing" is ridiculous and has high economic costs. However, it has a deep foundation in American geopolitics and may become the core of US diplomacy in the next year or two. In the past three years, the United States has found nothing in the aspects of "corporate returning shore", "near -shore outsourcing" or "friendly shore outsourcing". Canada and Mexico are the most natural destinations in the United States, but the two countries have smaller their exports in the United States than three years ago. China's accounting for the United States' imports has indeed declined, but if the export of low -cost countries in Asia is added, the proportion remains at a relatively stable level.

The entire Asian exporters did not seem to adopt the above three methods, but implemented the strategy of "China+Diversity". Many companies have made a rational reaction, but they are unable to relieve (irrational) political pressure. "You'an Outsourcing" builds the United States' curb strategy for the Soviet Union. This time, everything is to curb China. It questioned the value of globalization and believed that it would be inevitable to pay the economic price. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen provides an economic explanation: "Support the supply chain friend shore outsourcing to a large number of reliable countries, so that we can continue to safely expand market access, reduce the risk of economy and trustworthy trade partners." Yellen knows the actual challenge of the strategy: it requires a large number of "friendly" countries to participate, and these countries need to be trusted by (the United States). This is a big challenge.

Perhaps the most obvious Youkan outsourcing "shelter" is the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7) and the European Union. The first challenge was: Friends came and left. And how friendly or trust can India, a member of the "four -sided mechanism"? When looking for a "large number" country required to curb strategies for China outside the G7, the second challenge appeared: the large group was the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, but after Trump's "US priority", friendship was severely tested.

The Group of Twenty (G20) is obviously large enough to provide the foundation for reliable friendship outsourcing outsourcing. But most member states hope that they will never be forced to choose between the United States and China. Some will choose to ride a wall or tend to China, including Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Russia. In addition, the G20 only includes one of the 10 ASEAN economies and one of African countries. These areas have close interdependence relationships with China, and it is unlikely to respond positively to the pressure of Yue'an outsourcing. Facing the predicament, the United States began to establish an Indo -Pacific economic framework, but at least 8 of its 14 members clearly stated that they did not want to damage their economic relations with China.

Perhaps the most severe challenge for the United States to implement the outsourced outsourced outsourcing of Aiyan is: the economic relations between most parts of the world and China are stronger and more valuable than their relationship with Russia, which makes it to break the containment of this powerful and beneficial economic connection. The strategy is not attractive at all. The Director -General of the WTO Ivera recently reflected: "This multilateral trading system has been established for 75 years to help more than 1 billion people get rid of poverty and achieve peace through interdependence ..." Perhaps the United States needs to beware of its hopes for its tough and safe hawks. thing. (Author David Dadeville, translated by Qiao Heng)

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