Answer readers asked: How is the American people's "pain index" calculated?

Editor: Comrade:

Recently, when the American people's "pain index" is high, the US Democratic Party's midterm elections or dozens of seats, how can the American people's "pain index" calculate? What impact will it have on society?

Hebei reader Yue Shanshan

Picture source icphoto

American economist Arthur Okin, who had served as presidential adviser, proposed the concept of "pain index" in the 1960s. The calculation of the "Pain Index" is very simple, that is, the sum of the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate. Data released by the American Pain Index website show that the country's current unemployment rate is 3.6%, the inflation rate is 9.06%, and the "Pain Index" is 12.66.

Judging from the historical trend of the "Pain Index", the 12.66 "Pain Index" set a new high since the outbreak of the new American crown pneumonia in early 2020. In April 2020, the American "Pain Index" soared to 15.03 when the epidemic impact was worst, which was the first time in the past 10 years. After August 2020, the "pain index" in the United States fell below 10. However, since the President of the United States, the "pain index" in the United States has basically risen. In addition, it is worth mentioning that from the perspective of the "pain index" composition, the unemployment rate generally accounts for the "pain index" in recent years, and the proportion of inflation is usually small, but this year Far surpassing the proportion of business rates.

In the early 1980s, Western capitalist countries suffered a serious crisis of "stagnation", and the domestic people's grievances were boiling. It is under this macroeconomic background that the "Pain Index" in the United States set a record highest in history in June 1980. Coincidentally, the US President Carter at the time was also Democratic, just like the current President Biden. Due to the poor economic performance during his tenure, Carter has always been considered one of the worst presidents in American history, and he also failed in the US presidential election in 1980 and failed to be re -elected. Economic decline can also trigger a political crisis. Therefore, Bloomberg believes that the "pain index" of the United States will lose dozens of seats in the midterm elections of the Democratic Party. (Wang Pinzhi)

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