Trump is "copied", and "inner ghosts" are about to surface?What impact will the incident bring?｜ In -depth analysis

After leaving the president, Trump, who hoped to return to the spotlight, never expected that he would rush headlines by the search. According to the disclosure, the FBI took the search order to search for the Sea Lake Manor after receiving the liner's secret report. It is reported that Trump currently checks who is a "inner ghost" who leaked the FBI in his core team. At the same time, his private lawyer also let go of the Democratic Party. If Trump wins in 2024, the first thing is to copy all the homes of Biden.

At the time of the US midterm election, former US President Trump considered a critical moment when he was re -emerging in 2024, but his private house was searched by assault. Is it a normal investigation or political persecution? Will Trump be arrested or prosecuted? Will the searches searched by the Haihu Manor will break the "President's Dream" of Trump May?

This article is an analysis and interpretation of Mr. Qian Feng, a senior researcher at Taihe Think Tank, in "News Today's Talk "-

Haihu Manor covers a very large area with nearly a hundred rooms inside. During the investigation, the FBI found the place where the safe placement was placed very accurately, so the outside world generally suspected that there was a "inner ghost" around Trump or inside the team.

The White House Chief of White House during his tenure also said that he had never seen such a safe at all. On the one hand, it shows that the contents of this safe are very core; second, it shows that the leak is also very core and must be Trump's "people around." At present, the US media has narrowed the scope of speculation to 5 to 8 people. With the deepening of the investigation and the disclosure of information, the person's identity may slowly surface.

As for some media, Trump's wife or son -in -law may be a leaked person, and this must be analyzed in multiple parties. The source of the letter was Michael Cohen from Trump's former private lawyer, but this person had completely broken Trump during Trump's tenure. Therefore, Michael Cohen's credibility is doubtful.

Although there was a sudden incident on August 8th, the US Department of Justice actually had already followed Trump, suspecting that he had handled secret documents in improper processing, and conducted a criminal investigation on him. However, Trump has stepped down for a year and a half, and the law enforcement agency has not taken action, but there is still less than three months from the midterm election to detonate the bomb. Is the coincidence of time in time?

From the time of the investigation, there are still a lot of information released. There is a political rule in the United States. For this sensitive person and sensitive incident, it will not take public investigations 90 days before major election activities. It is about 92 days from the mid -term election on August 8. It can be said that it is on the point.

In such a special node, why does the FBI include such actions including the US Department of Justice? This illustrates two issues. One is that this must be done, not to do it. Secondly, they may have received internal line reports. If they do not do it, they may be transferred and destroyed by their goals and documents.

The amount of information released by breaking the conventional approach is very large. According to Article 4 of the United States Constitution, the FBI searches must be searched by the judge, and the FBI must find sufficient evidence to persuade the judge. Secondly, a sensitive person like Trump is not only the former president of the United States, but also a former president who has a high support rate to date. These consequences have all issued a search order, which shows that they firmly believe that the raid will definitely gain something and will not return empty -handed.

There is no criminal prosecution object on the FBI search order. At least according to the current US media reports, there is no criminal prosecution object. What does this indicate the problem? How much is the possibility of Trump's prosecution or conviction?

Theoretically, investigations do not mean to prosecute, including prosecutors who can not prosecute in the end, and do not need to explain any circumstances. However, in actual operation, for such important sensitive events and special characters, if you choose not to prosecute, it will not explain the situation. The United States will not be satisfied, and it will also have a great impact on the Bayeng government.

If the next step of the FBI and the Ministry of Justice's suspected of rising to criminal levels, it will enter a more complicated situation. On the one hand, the final decision of the U.S. ruling is to be in the jury. Will the jury be convicted? On the other hand, entering the judicial prosecution must be made public. As more and more details are exposed under the media, more criticism and questioning of Trump's loyal fans and Republican Party will appear within the media.

If the jury is convicted, there is also a stage of appeal. If Trump was convicted after being ruled, but then the appeal was overturned, or the jury rejected some of the crimes and allegations proposed by the prosecutor, anyway, it was a blow to the Bayeon government and the current political system of the United States. This is also a reason why the US judicial sector is very cautious and measured around.

From history, there are also several impeachment of the US president, but the political system has an uncomfortable convention of "punishment cannot be punished", but since Trump has become the first former president who has been "copied", will it break through? This convention depends on the results of the US judicial department and political party struggle.

Trump has also released the wind recently to prepare to run for the presidential election in 2024. What impact will the Haihu Manor incident affect his political career?

On this section, it will have a great impact on Trump. Trump's support rate was rising and winning a lot. Now that the estate is searched, Trump may announce the election in advance to fully indicate that he is persecuted by the Democratic Party of the United States, and calls on his fans to unite. As for whether there is an impact on Trump's political career, from these two aspects, on the one hand, the Democratic Party will definitely not let go, especially some people within the Democratic Party really want to further expand this issue and make Trump the most It is good to go to jail so that he cannot participate in the presidential election. If you ca n’t sit in prison, you must further let Trump's reputation sweep the floor, thereby further compressing his political space.

However, many legal experts in the United States also pointed out that even if Trump was prosecuted or even convicted, it would not affect his qualifications to run for the US president again. Because the US Constitution stipulates that campaign presidents only need to meet three conditions: American citizens born in the United States are 35 years old and have lived in the United States for more than 14 years. Legal experts predict that if Trump's qualifications to participate in the 2024 election are affected by the case, Trump's lawyer team will inevitably sue the case to the Supreme Court. According to the jurisprudence, the Supreme Court will believe that the Constitution is the only criterion for determining the qualifications of the US presidential campaign. Among the nine judges of the Supreme Court of the United States, 6 conservative judges accounted for 6 and 3 liberals. I personally feel that the ruling that the judge may make will also be biased towards Trump.

Former President was "copied" by the FBI, which is unprecedented in the history of the United States. Not only that, Trump also loses a lawsuit and faces many other investigations, including the survey of Mountain riots, commercial behavior and civil surveys, which are almost unique among the retired president in the United States. At the same time, the Democratic Party seized Trump's handle and stains, and spared no effort to pursue the poor and interpret the party's struggle to the extreme. This is also extremely rare in the history of modern American politics. This series of "unique" reflects the current status quo of the US political ecology?

As the Governor of Florida, the Governor of Florida, said, "justice has been weapons." In recent years, the political struggle between the two parties between the United States has become more and more fierce and fierce. For example, the two parties in the United States are the current situation of "50 to fifty" in the Senate, and it has entered a vicious circle of "every other party must be anti -countermeasure". The continuous party struggle also allows continuous opposition and tearing between the upper and lower, left and right of the American society.

Some American media even have such concerns. If the confrontation between the two parties continues, will it occur after the presidential election in 2024, which will not be able to carry out power in peace? In American politics, many political bottom lines have been broken by crushing one by one. For example, the results of the election are "willing to bet", the public's respect for the Mountains of Congress, not political persecution and fragmentation, and so on. At present, the two parties have entered a state of "bottom -free competition", so the concerns of American media and many things are not impossible.

Source: "News Today Talk"

Edit: Mumu

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