[Solution Bureau] Liu He talks with Yelun, the word "should be appointment" is meaningful

This morning, Xinhua News Agency published a message of more than 200 words: Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council, called with the US Secretary Yelun video call. " Opinions, exchanges are constructive. " The news is not long, and there are a lot of views.

(Picture source: China Government Network)

According to public reports, since June last year, as "the leader of the Chinese and American comprehensive economic dialogue", Liu He has conducted three video calls with Yellen (June, October, and July this year). Last October and today, China talked with the United States "appointment". The United States took the initiative to come to the door to talk, and to a certain extent, it highlighted the active position of the Chinese side.

What are you talking about? The macroeconomic situation, the global industrial chain supply chain is stable. Nowadays, the new crown epidemic is superimposed with geopolitical conflicts, and the downward pressure on the world economy and trade has increased. WTO predicts that global trade has fallen sharply this year, which may only increase by about 3%. In this context, as the two largest economies in the world, whether Sino -US macroeconomic policies can maintain communication and coordination and jointly maintain the stable supply chain of the global industrial chain, which is of great significance to global markets, investors, and practitioners.

We often say that as long as the door of the Sino -US dialogue is still open, it is a good foundation. This time, China and the United States "pragmatic and frank exchange opinions" shows that the two parties open the sunroof to speak brightly, but the differences still exist; "exchanges and constructive constructive" shows that there is progress; Under the "comprehensive economic dialogue" mechanism, the two sides will further talk.

There is also a saying in the draft that it is worth noting: "China has expressed concerns about the cancellation of tariffs on the United States, sanctions, and treating Chinese enterprises fairly." This sentence also appeared in the news draft of Liu He and Yellen last October last year, but the background has changed.

Recently, the US media kept the wind, saying that Biden was the fastest this week or the cancellation of some tariffs on China. In fact, since May of this year, the inflation pressure of the United States that has been constantly refreshed by the historical record, the White House has released signals to adjust the tariffs on China. The last time was in early June, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raymond said that Biden asked her team to study the cancellation of Trump's tariff plans for China to deal with high inflation. Later, the US media reported that Biden tended to remove some Chinese goods (mainly consumer goods) from the Trump tariff list, asking the US Trade Representative Office to launch a formal "exemption procedure".

What is the pressure of inflation in the United States? Uncle Island wrote an article before (click here). As far as China is concerned, the measurement model of the Peterson Institute of International Economic Research shows that after the tariffs on China, each consumer in the United States may spend nearly 800 US dollars, which will affect the US inflation rate of about 1.3%as a whole. The article by the Brucks Society pointed out that "the person who feels the deepest about inflation is the person who has cast a key swing ticket in the past two presidential elections." Today, the impact of tariffs on goods on China has long been reflected in the lives of ordinary consumers in the United States. It really should really say that in China: moving stones and smashing their feet.

Under the pressure of high inflation rates, facing mid -term elections, the White House had to alleviate tariffs on some goods in China. China naturally welcomes the United States "knowing wrong".

A cargo ship stopped at Long Beach Port, USA. Photo source: Wen report

However, as the saying goes, listening to its words, the game between China and the United States is a long -lasting battle, and it is not necessary to be too optimistic about the U.S. movement.

This time the White House intends to remove from the tariff list is mainly consumer goods. It can be seen that it is mainly for alleviating domestic inflation, and there is no loose sanction on China's high -tech sanctions. The US government is also full of differences, adding more uncertainty to the future. In the case of tariffs, the internal differences of the White House are almost open. Yellen and others support the reduction of tariffs to relieve inflation. Trade representative Dai Qi and others believe that tariffs are "key chips" for negotiations to China and cannot give up. This is not the case, just a few days ago, the United States had pulled five Chinese companies into the sanctions list a few days ago, indicating that the United States is only a local adjustment at the policy level. It is a temporary measure for its own interests. The overall strategy has changed.

For the two sides of the United States, people with eyes are very clear and will not hold too much fantasy. In the final analysis, win -win cooperation is the way out of Sino -US relations and cannot politically and weapon economic and trade issues. If the United States does not understand this historical trend and wants to be stalks from it, then China will continue to light up.

Text/绫

Edit/Jiu Duan, Yunge

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