Russia and Ukraine conflict, the Middle East oil producing country has become a "new variable&q

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] After the Russian -Ukraine conflict was upgraded, the Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf became an important object of the United States and Russia at the same time. The United States and Britain and other countries have always urged these Middle East oil -producing countries to increase production in order to lower the oil prices. The purpose of doing so is undoubtedly the bottom of the Russian kettle in sanctions. However, the response of Saudi Arabia and other countries is not very active, and limited production has not lowered international oil prices. After the Russian Foreign Minister visited the oil -producing countries such as Oman, Barin, Saudi Arabia, etc. in May, the first Middle East trip scheduled to be in June was postponed to mid -July. In the past 80 years, it has always been a strategic partner of the United States, and the President of the United States has also met with Saudi leaders. " It is necessary to not only give the "face" to the American allies, but also maintain the "Lizi" that cooperates with Russia. During the Middle East War, oil -producing countries such as Saudi Arabia became a variable that affected the world's political and economic pattern. After half a century, these Middle East oil -producing countries became "new variables" and defended their own interests in a more humble attitude. Starting from academic levels, the food, military, and technological self -sufficiency in the "post -Russia and Ukraine Conflict era".

Sands have "suspicion", but you can't talk about "goodbye"

For a period of time, the conclusion on the uncertainty of the Saudi -American relations and even the "evil" is endless, especially for the "Kashuji case", Bayeng's criticism and intentional alienation of Mohammed Ben Salman princes caused the relationship between the two countries Falling into a trough. When the Crown Prince refused to increase the production of petroleum production with Biden, Saudi Public opinion also had similar comments. However, according to the author's observation and communication with some political analysts with Saudi Arabia, the so -called "evil" is just an over -interpretation of superficial problems. Some Saudi analysts said that the Saudi government has always had a good opinion of the US Democratic Party government that pursues the "value of values". The "suspect" on the surface of the relationship between the two parties has also extended this phenomenon in essence. From the perspective of the Saudis, the deeper cause of this kind of "suspicion" is that Saudi Arabia recognizes the United States' Middle East policy, and does not have stability and sustainability.

Recently, Abdul Aziz Sagl, chairman of the Saudi Bay Research Center, expressed dissatisfaction with the US government in an interview program in Saudi Arabia. He first listed the positions of the three governments of Obama, Trump, and Bayeng on the Iranian nuclear issue, and then summarized the "four sins" in the United States: First, "change the established policy and violate the previous commitment to the United States, so that the United States, so that We cannot judge its future direction, and Saudi Arabia is pursuing a stable and lasting policy. " "True position"; second, the US Congress often gives special treatment for Israel in discussions on foreign military sales, but to make obstacles to Saudi Arabia and other countries, and try to obstruct its strategic intention of realizing military equipment autonomous and self -sufficient; third, the United States is present at the moment The policies for the nation's country are still at the level of "tactics" instead of "strategic". It is reflected in the U.S. eager to ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil, strongly condemn Russia in Russia and Ukraine disputes, and weaken the connection with China; fourth, the United States is often " "The mouth is not really", and Trump has promised in the visit of Saudi Saudi at the beginning of his office. If the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia are attacked, the United States will definitely take counterattack measures. The United States has no movement.

Despite the delay of Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia, Saudi and American countries have recently appointed high -level representatives to meet the other leaders. The intention of the two sides to repair the relationship is very obvious. The established cooperation between the Samen and the current in progress is continuing. Taking the integrated air defense system in Iran and the construction of the Gulf region as an example, the United States and Saudi -led Sea -Healing countries still maintain high -frequency interaction and exchanges.

The author also discovered during the Saudi Inspection in 2018 to 2019 that the United States has "deeply cultivated" Saudi Arabia for decades, and its influence cannot be underestimated. "In the Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the mainstream of the United States is the world's largest country, and it will be the same for some time in the future." In the exchange, Saudi youths talked about the United States like this. They bluntly said that "the United States is usually the first choice for us to study abroad." I remember that I was invited to participate in the family salon organized by Saudi scholars. During the table, the American "scientific research" personnel explained the US government's Saudi policy with fluent Saudi dialects. Dozens of Saudi scholars present seemed to be accustomed to it. A lot of intentions to study and enlarge Saudi Arabia have been used.

Despite the "cultivation" for many years, the gradual weakening of the United States and Gulf regional allies is the general trend. According to the author's observation, from the Trump administration to the Bayeng government, the Saudi folk's emotions have experienced the significant transformation from "close" and "attention" to "alienation" and "indifferent", and there are also many people who are dissatisfied with the United States "Biden is a liar" on social media. For the Bayeng government, under the premise of continuous downturn from the polls and the successive strengthening of China -Russia relations with the national relations with the sea, it may also be clearly brought to the "suspicion" with Saudi Arabia, repairing the overall relationship with the Gulf Arab country is "laborious and and The helpless move of not asking.

"OPEC+, exclude politics outside decision"

Faced with soaring oil prices, Biden sought help from the two major oil -producing countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in early March, but both leaders of the two countries refused to answer the call from the US president. U.S. media judged that the oil -producing countries in the United States and the Middle East gradually drifted away. Part of the reason is that the Bayeng government refused to include Yemenhasu armed forces on the list of "terrorist organizations" to dissatisfy Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Some Gulf countries also believed that the United States tried to restart the Iranian nuclear agreement to damage its own interests. More importantly, Saudi Arabia and Russia have dominated the "OPEC+" alliance for many years to jointly control energy production to achieve market price stability. On March 29, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia made it clear that OPEC+will exclude politics outside its decisions to support the "common interests" of stable energy prices. Saudi Arabia ’s“ ignoring ”strategy of Biden authorities objectively adds energy chips to Russia’ s Battlefield in Russia and Western games in Russia. The Putin government is also sensitive to Saudi ’s“ suspicion ”for Russia. Government's pragmatic connection.

Looking back at history, after the fourth Middle East War broke out in 1973, in order to combat opponents Israel and countries that supported Israel, Middle East oil -producing countries such as Saudi Arabia announced that the oil was embargoing and suspended exports. $ 13. The first petroleum crisis allowed Western countries to enter a period of recession. The use of "petroleum weapons" and other countries such as Saudi Arabia also became one of the variables of the Middle East War at the time. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said: "In history, no group consisting of weak countries can force people in the vast majority of human beings to change their lifestyle so dramaticly, but the protests are so such" few."

"The world must get rid of the energy dependence on Russia. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are key international partners." British Prime Minister Johnson visited the two major oil -producing countries in Saudi in March, trying to use them to express their production. However, these oil -producing countries in the Middle East did not fully follow the ideas of the United States and Britain, and used "petroleum weapons" in the Russian crisis. Kuwait scholar Mohammed Ramishi recently wrote in an important academic journal Saudi Arabia that the Gulf Arab country has adopted the "not exactly consistent but general neutral" position since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict. The UAE of the country first rejected Russia in the form of opposition votes, and then supported condemnation at the United Nations Conference with other nations of the United Nations. The Ukrainian crisis was looking for political solutions; Kuwait condemned Russia's "occupation", while Saudi Arabia provided assistance to Ukrainian refugees affected by the war through the Salman Aid Center. But in general, the nation of the sea in the United States, as a traditional American allies, only echoed the West's dissatisfaction with Russia in the form of non -binding verbal condemnation, but did not let themselves stand on the opposite side of any party.

What is more interesting is that with the restoration of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in the context of the development opportunities of the national integration of the sea, the Gulf Arab country dares to say "no" from the demands of the United States and its Western allies, and and and of. It fully recognizes that the US sanctions on Russia first sacrificed the interests of its European allies, so they were not sustainable. This also enhanced the strategic influence of the sea Hehe countries that can control oil prices.

Regarding the deep reasons for the "hard gas" of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries, Lahman You Sufu, a senior media person in the Sultan Saudi Arabia, told the author: "Recently, Saudi Arabia has not been afraid of the pressure of the United States. For the consideration of its own strength. As a member of the G20 members, there are many friends of Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, and many countries are important partners. In fact, as early as Obama's administration, Saudi Arabia no longer cares about pressure from the United States. It is a strategic ally relationship, which means that the allies should care about each other's interests. Since Biden plans to visit Saudi Arabia and Israel, you should understand Saudi Arabia's concerns and concerns of Saudi Arabia. There is no harvest of no dedication. "

Early deployment "post -Russia and Ukraine Conflict era"

Rahman You Sufu also said to the author: "When the U.S. government pressures Saudi Arabia for political purposes, Saudi Arabia reminds the United States that 'Saudi Arabia still has many great powers and allies to cooperate.' In exchange for the United States to restore reason. "In the author's opinion, driven by real interests, the Saudi government will continue to pursue diversified foreign policies under the framework of the Saudi Alliance to enhance the relationship between China and Russia to enable their right to speak.

Since the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the oil -producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are gradually being regarded by international public opinion as "new variables that can affect the international structure" and bring a lot of inspiration to other countries. The latest issue of Saudi Arabia's "Views" wrote: "The Russian and Ukraine War is not a simple and ordinary event. It is more like a large earthquake that shakes the world. The country is enough to influence and even change the old pattern of the international community. Although the new pattern of establishment is still unclear. "The journal also mentioned that with the extension of the Russian and Ukraine conflict process, one was early in The "polarization" phenomenon that gradually disappears has become clearer and is gradually emerging, and the reason why the Gulf Arab country can cope with the development of the situation of Russia and Ukraine with "mild, wisdom and neutrality", adheres to the principles of peace, dialogue to resolve disputes in disputes, First of all, it originated from the conflict (direct or indirect) of the conflict (direct or indirect). Secondly, because it can control the international energy market, the third is based on the formation of neutrality and realism and pursuing national policies. In the Middle East media, many Arab scholars wrote that the Gulf countries in the "post -Russia and Ukraine Conflict era" should be deployed in a timely manner and focus on achieving self -sufficiency of food and military equipment.

In the author's opinion, this overall atmosphere of the Gulf area that seeks to get rid of tradition, realize security, and self -sufficient technology, and self -sufficient technology, is fundamentally conducive to the "small bloggance" of the country, and this dependence on getting rid of energy and food, grain dependence, grain dependence, grain dependence. The clear understanding of diversified development is originally a "new variable" worthy of attention for the international political and economic pattern. In recent years, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia have intensified the cooperation with China in the field of automotive industry and artificial intelligence and other technology industries, which has also attracted the attention of Western countries.

Focusing on the three most important countries that influence the international structure with the United States and Russia, the chief scholars of the Saudi Scientific Research and Intellectual Exchange Center, and the expert of Russia and China, Abdullah Faragi, told the author: "Determined Saudi Arabia, China, and the United States The "pillar relationship is the strength of every 'horns'. From the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Saudi Arabia can adjust the direction in a timely manner according to the strength pattern in the transformation. In response to this challenge, Saudi Arabia will adjust the experience of previous people and adjust its relationship with other countries in a timely manner to adapt to the international pattern in the change. "

It is not difficult to see that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab countries under its influence will continue to pursue diversified foreign policies, but these Middle East oil -producing countries are not willing to be unconditional and "multilateralism" initiative on any occasion. Throughout the history of the modern Saudi Arabia for nearly a century, combined with the overall process of the national integration construction of the Sea -Hee by the sea, a strong mentality from "Mu Qiang" and "from Qiang" to "self -reliance" exists in the Arabic nation of the Gulf area. In personality and national style, and to a large extent, they have influenced their style of acting and foreign exchanges.

For China, how to recognize and get closer with this "new variable", continuously strengthening the co -construction and sharing between China and Saudi Arabia, China and Gulf Cooperation Committee under the framework of both strategic relations is important. Project. (The author is a doctorate in Beijing Foreign Studies University, a visiting researcher at the China -Arab Reform and Development Research Center, a visiting scholar of Saudi Scientific Research and Knowledge Exchange Center))

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