What impact will the housing interest rate continue to decline on housing demand?

The decline in personal housing loan interest rates has attracted much attention from the market. The monitoring data of the Shell Research Institute shows that in July, the mainstream first set of mortgages in 103 key cities was 4.35%, the two -set loan interest rate was 5.07%, and the overall mortgage interest rate reached a new low since 2019. At the same time, personal housing loans have also rebounded.

How to think of mortgage interest rates continued to decline? What impact will it have on housing demand? Does the mortgage interest rate still have a downlink space? The reporter interviewed relevant experts and scholars on these issues.

Why is the mortgage interest rate down

Why does the mortgage interest rate continue to decline? On the one hand, it is closely related to the quotation interest rate (LPR) of the loan market above 5 years. At present, 99%of the mortgage interest rate is linked to LPR above 5 years. On May 20, LPR above 5 years dropped from 4.6%to 4.45%. Since the LPR reform in August 2019, LPRs above 5 years have gradually decreased from 4.85%to 4.45%. On the other hand, in May this year, the regulatory department reduced the lower limit of interest rates in the first home loan, which was reduced from "not less than less than 5 years" to "not less than less than 5 years to reduce 20 basis points." According to the monitoring data of the Shell Research Institute, as of now, 74 of the 103 key cities have been as low as 4.25%and two sets of 5.05%lower limit levels.

"The decline in LPR has driven the decline in mortgage interest rates, not only the newly issued mortgage interest rate has decreased, but the interest rate of stock mortgages has also decreased accordingly." Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Financial and Development Laboratory, said that this will help reduce the interest cost of buyers and improve consumer expenditure expenditure. ability.

Synchronization with "price drop" is the "volume rise". Data show that the new scale of real estate loans in June this year has increased significantly compared with May, and it has increased more than two months in a row. It is expected that real estate loans will increase by over 150 billion yuan in June, which is 250 billion yuan from May in May. Among them, individuals are individuals. Housing loans increased by 150 billion yuan.

"The current lending speed has reached the fastest since 2019." Liu Zhongrui, head of the Statistics and Risk Monitoring Department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that regulatory departments guided banks to improve the efficiency of loan approval and meet the reasonable demand for house purchase. The data of the Shell Research Institute also shows that the average loan cycle of personal housing loans in July was 25 days, which was shortened by 4 days compared with the previous month.

How to affect the demand for house purchase

Factors such as decline in mortgage interest rates and accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control have jointly promoted the centralized release of residents' purchase needs in June, and the real estate sales situation has been slightly stable. "Since this year, LPR has been reduced by more than 5 years, and the regulatory department has reduced the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, which has a incentive effect on promoting residents' purchase of houses. In addition Well, "said Lou Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank.

"From the perspective of the sales area, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the first half of the year fell 22.2%year -on -year, and the decrease of 23.6%from the previous five months. From the perspective Fall 31.5%. "Said Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank.

From the perspective of sales prices, the sales prices of commercial housing in June stabilized, and the number of cities increased from the previous month. According to data from the State Bureau of Statistics, the sales prices of new and second -hand housing in first -tier cities and second -tier cities have recovered. From the perspective of sales prices for new commercial housing, first -tier cities rose 0.5%month -on -month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and second -tier cities decreased from the previous month to 0.1%. From the perspective of second -hand residential sales prices, first -tier cities have changed from flat to 0.1%last month, and second -tier cities decreased by 0.1%month -on -month, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Driven by the release of house purchase demand, the willingness of the residential department to add leverage has recovered. "In June, the residential department's medium- and long -term loans increased by 416.7 billion yuan, which was the highest level since February, showing that the resident department's willingness to increase leverage has recovered." Wen Bin said.

What is the future market trend

Is there still room for low -loan interest rates in the future? This mainly depends on whether the LPR of more than 5 years has stepped down.

"Objectively there may be room for decline." Zeng Gang believes that the current interest rate period structure changes are inconsistent, and the lower -end LPR downgrade of more than 5 years is far less than the short -end 1 -year LPR downgrade, so the mid -length interest rate is likely to further reduce.

"We are still cautious about the consumption performance of the next stage." Wen Bin believes that the first is that the consumption willingness of the economy is still not high. According to the data of the People's Bank of China, the willingness to savings in urban residents in the second quarter of this year has risen to 58.3%, which has the highest level since the statistics; the second is that the preventive savings tendency of the residential department is still high. In the first half of this year, resident deposits increased by 10.33 trillion yuan. A year -on -year increase of 2.88 trillion yuan, a record high in history.

Based on the above factors, the market pays attention to real estate trends in third- and fourth -tier cities."At present, the interest rate of the mortgage rate of third- and fourth -tier cities is large because of the relative excess of housing supply." Lou Feipeng said that due to the impact of the epidemic, some residents' income declined, and the expectations of housing prices have gradually adjusted.Therefore, only lowered the mortgage interest rates can not effectively stabilize the real estate market.Next, on the one hand, we must optimize and improve the policy of entering the city, especially the relevant policies with housing facilities to attract population settlement; on the other hand, to provide effective policy support for new citizens and other groups, to meet the rigid housing of new citizens such as new citizens and other groupsDemand and improvement of housing demand.Regulatory authorities are increasing support for the development of the housing rental market."The" Guiding Opinions on the Development of Bank Insurance Institutions Supporting Poor Rental Housing Development "has been released, which has eliminated affordable leased housing loans from the concentration of real estate loans to enhance the enthusiasm of banks to invest in affordable lease loans." Liu Zhongrui said that housing is currently housing.Lease -related loans increased by 62.9%over the same period last year.

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